Possible NOAA layoffs alarm broader weather forecasting community
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Fears have grown among National Weather Service advocates that the Trump administration is seeking to privatize or significantly downsize it — moves they say would undo a careful division of labor among government, academia and the private sector.
Why it matters: A balance has been struck over decades within the "weather enterprise" in which NOAA collects raw weather data from the Earth's deep oceans to space, disseminates forecasts through NWS and issues life-saving watches and warnings.
- With recent cuts to the agency, and further staff reductions potentially looming, some fear this balance will be knocked off kilter and that public safety will suffer.
What they're saying: "It is vital for the protection of life and property… that the existing weather enterprise be sustained and enhanced moving forward," Peter Neilley, director of weather forecasting sciences and technologies at The Weather Company, told Axios.
- He said it's simply "not an option" to stop issuing tornado warnings and other life-saving services 24/7 and that doing so requires a dedicated workforce.
- After the recent cuts at NOAA, the American Meteorological Society said: "This unique private-public partnership didn't happen by accident but by design and through persistent effort."
Zoom in: John Dean, CEO of the venture fund-backed weather observation and forecasting firm WindBorne, sees his company as helping NOAA gather data and tap into new, AI-driven models.
- He and other private weather industry representatives oppose cutting NOAA further or privatizing some of it.
- Dean's company launches high-altitude weather balloons that gather data and feed it into computer models, including its own system as well as NOAA's.
- In the wake of last month's NOAA layoffs of probationary employees — and even with the temporary re-hiring of those staffers — WindBorne is working with NOAA to plug data gaps caused by staffing shortages.
As much as Dean may tout his firm's AI forecasting prowess, he isn't interested in taking over NOAA's functions, he told Axios.
The other side: Some who favor a reduced role for NOAA argue its functions could be carried out commercially at a lower cost and higher quality.
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said he is against breaking up NOAA and privatizing the NWS, though he hasn't ruled out significant changes to make NOAA more efficient.
Friction point: During President Trump's first administration, concerns arose about privatization after Trump nominated Barry Myers, a former AccuWeather executive, to head NOAA. Myers ultimately withdrew, citing health reasons.
- More recently, concerns stem from the NOAA section of Project 2025, a policy roadmap that the White House has been closely following at a number of agencies.
- It called for NOAA to be broken up and NWS to be turned into a data-gathering service with its other functions privatized.
Yes, but: Nearly every private weather forecasting company relies on the raw data that NOAA's satellites, ground observation stations, computer models and other infrastructure gather and disseminate for free.
- Even if most weather apps may not make it obvious, "the private sector has used NOAA information often as foundational to what it does," Neilley said.
Dean envisions his company's relationship with NOAA to NASA's with SpaceX, which the space agency pays to do research and development.
- "I think if you look at that history over the last 20 years, I would deem it overall a huge success in the way that NASA has really embraced a public-private partnership," he told Axios.
NOAA is already working with private-sector satellite firms to purchase weather data that it either cannot get from its own satellite fleet or can use to augment its incoming information.
- The NWS did not respond to a request for comment.
Between the lines: The Weather Company's Neilley called the advancements in weather forecasting during the past 75 years "one of the greatest scientific achievements."
- In an interview with Axios, he described a three-legged stool of academia, private weather and climate companies and the federal government.
- Weaken any leg, he warned, and an "informed and resilient society" is in jeopardy.
- He praised NOAA for taking scientific knowledge and operationalizing it into weather forecasting and other products.
Zoom out: All of this is playing out as certain types of extreme weather events are becoming more common and intense due to human-caused global warming, from heat waves to heavy precipitation events.
- This puts a premium on more accurate forecasting.
What we're watching: Whether and how plans are carried out for further cuts to NOAA's workforce — and the ramifications for the weather industry writ large.
