NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

• Layoffs at NOAA, a top weather and climate agency, come as climate change causes more intense and frequent weather and climate extremes.

The big picture: By Thursday night, some Weather Service and NOAA offices were already cutting back on their services.

• A bulletin from NWS headquarters announced that staffing shortages would prevent the twice-daily weather balloon launches from Kotzebue, Alaska. These provide information on upper air conditions to fine-tune computer models that help predict the weather across the U.S.
• The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory announced its public communications would be on "indefinite hiatus" due to staffing shortages.

Among the deepest of NOAA's cuts was to the Office of Space Commerce. It licenses commercial satellites and issues warnings to satellites to prevent them from getting too close to one another in orbit, among other national security-related tasks.

• Multiple layoffs hit the NWS' Environmental Modeling Center, which is responsible for keeping the agency's computer models operating.

Zoom in: The cuts hit workers at NOAA headquarters; NOAA's satellites division; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, N.J.; and divisions on the oceans side of the agency.

• GFDL and the research office at NOAA both do cutting-edge climate science work, including developing computer models to project global warming.
• Sources at NOAA who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Axios about the layoffs. A spokesperson for the NWS declined to comment on personnel matters but told Axios: "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."
• "NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience," the spokesperson said.

As of Friday, NOAA's travel cards had been cut, halting agency travel, and purchase cards were reduced to $1 except for about a dozen. There were also reports of leases for office space being canceled.

Friction point: The cuts infuriated the tight-knit weather and climate community, which depends on NOAA for raw data, forecast guidance, computer modeling, hurricane research flights and watch and warning information.

• Many meteorologists took to social media to vent their frustrations. Some warned the cuts could cost lives as severe weather season approaches.
• "The mass firing of both new hires and recently promoted senior staff within NOAA, including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service, is profoundly alarming," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, in a statement posted to X.
• "The NWS is a critical public utility, and it would be extremely difficult to rebuild if torn down. This is not, in short, an acceptable setting in which to 'move fast and break things,'" he said.

Threat level: Tom Di Liberto, a meteorologist who was laid off from his role in NOAA Communications, told Axios that the cuts to NWS in particular will be harmful.

• "We will be less prepared for the next disaster and the disaster after that," Di Liberto said. "We're asking an already short-staffed agency to deal with increasing extremes with less people. Burnout will be real."
• About 300 members of the NWS may have been affected, one source said, about 7% of the service. Even before the cuts, the NWS in particular was short-staffed.
• As of February, NOAA had about 12,000 full-time employees, according to its website.

What they're saying: Lawmakers denounced moves to lay off workers at NOAA and other Commerce agencies.

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said the move threatens safety and the economy.
• "This action is a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP," she said in a statement.
• Cantwell is ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee that oversees NOAA.

Zoom out: The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency occurred at other climate and environment agencies.

• The layoffs have mainly hit employees with less than two years of service.
• Others who were promoted recently or transferred agencies can also be considered to be on probationary status.

The agency had used funding from the infrastructure law and Biden climate law to bolster its headcount and add more computing power.

What we're watching: How the cuts — and potentially deeper staff reductions to come — affect the accuracy and timeliness of NOAA's extreme weather warnings as well as its climate products.