FEMA cuts could devastate Louisiana

The big picture: The tropics have been the focus of the National Hurricane Conference that's happening in New Orleans this week.

• The gathering comes during uncertain times in the meteorological world, with cuts and changes being made to NOAA and its agencies, including the National Weather Service.
• Advocates are voicing concerns about reduced forecasting abilities.

Between the lines: NOAA and FEMA officials typically attend the conference, but they didn't this year due to travel restrictions, according to The Times-Picayune.

Catch up quick: Trump signed an executive order last month that empowers state and local governments to handle disaster readiness and relief.

• FEMA and other federal agencies, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development, already funnel billions of dollars to individuals and communities.
• It's unclear how or whether Trump's order might change that, or if it would result in fewer federal dollars for disaster-wracked states.
• Some FEMA reform advocates call for giving states "block grants" of relief money to spend as they see fit, rather than to meet specific needs — but others worry that would lead to fraud and abuse, or that many states lack the resources and expertise to rebuild without help.

By the numbers: Certain states — many of them red — would be hit especially hard by reductions in federal relief funding, per a new analysis from the Carnegie Disaster Dollar Database.

• Louisiana, for example, received an average of about $1.4 billion annually in FEMA and HUD relief funding from 2015 to 2024, covering 14 disasters.
• That's equal to 6.3% of the state's approximately $21.9 billion in overall spending in fiscal 2023.

Florida received $2.1 billion a year on average during that time, equal to 2.8% of the state's 2023 spending.

• And Texas got $1.4 billion, equal to 1.8% of its 2023 spending.

What they're saying: "Up to now, when there is a disaster, the government responds. They clean up the debris, they rebuild the schools, they run shelters, they clean the drinking water," says Sarah Labowitz of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who led this analysis.

• "All of that is supported by a federal disaster relief ecosystem that spreads the risk around the country, spreads the costs around the country. And if we stop spreading the costs around the country, then it's going to fall on states, and it's going to fall on states really unevenly."

State of play: "I think we're all in agreement about [FEMA] reform, but let's do it smartly and be able at the same time to complete the mission," Pete Gaynor, who ran FEMA for about two years during Trump's first term, tells Axios.

• Part of FEMA's utility, Gaynor says, is directing not just money but people, including relief experts who can be dispatched to states as needed after disaster strikes.
• But he's concerned about an exodus of FEMA staffers, in part tied to Trump's broader purge of federal workers. More than 200 of FEMA's 20,000-plus staffers have been fired, NPR reports.

"Where does this goal of reform stop before it's too late and you lose these capabilities that have been critical over time?" Gaynor says.

• "There has been and will continue to be a departure of [senior leaders] that have been at FEMA for 25-30 years, experts at everything — they leave, and you have a freeze on hiring, or you instill fear into the workforce, that's going to hurt."
• "And you know who it's going to hurt first? It's going to hurt the disaster survivor — that's where it hurts."

Go deeper

• Possible NOAA layoffs alarm broader weather forecasting community
• South, West see upticks in residents' extreme weather experiences
• Louisiana residents have gotten the most FEMA money since 2015