Nov 8, 2023 - News

Poll shows Biden deadlocked with Trump and Haley in 2024 presidential race

How Georgia voters say they would vote in select matchups
Data: AJC 2024 Early Look Survey; Chart: Axios Visuals

President Biden's re-election hurdles appear to be growing in Georgia — a key state he won by less than 12,000 votes in 2020, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll.

Why it matters: The poll finds Biden in dead heats in Georgia with former President Trump, former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — just a few days after a New York Times/Siena poll had Biden trailing by 6% vs. Trump in Georgia.

Driving the news: In hypothetical matchups, Biden holds a slight lead over DeSantis but trails both the former president and Haley.

  • It's important to note that all three matchups are within the poll's 3.1% margin of error.
  • While the president is trailing his predecessor, the AJC notes the difference is "not statistically significant."
  • "In plain English, this race is a statistical tie," the AJC said.

Of note: The AJC's 2024 Early Look Survey was conducted Oct. 26 through Nov. 3 and included 1,002 Georgia voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and 2022 elections and said they would either definitely or probably vote in next year's general election.

In the weeds: Poll results show 53.6% of male respondents said they would vote for Trump, the current GOP frontrunner, compared to 49.9% of female participants who indicated they would back Biden.

  • The president also leads the three GOP candidates among female voters, though that gap is smaller when matched with Haley.
  • Biden received 27.2% of white respondents' support, compared to Trump's 61.8%.
  • Among Black respondents, 78.4% say they will support the incumbent compared to 11.7% who say they will vote for Trump.
  • Biden has a 40+ point lead over Trump among voters aged 18 to 29, and he's tied with Trump among voters who are 30 to 44 years old.
  • However, he trails Trump among voters older than 45.

Context: The AJC's survey comes on the heels of the New York Times poll that showed Trump would win the 2024 race with more than 300 electoral college votes.

  • It also follows an August poll that shows despite his legal troubles, Trump remains the GOP frontrunner in Georgia.

Reality check: Despite what polls say about Biden, Democrats won big in Virginia and Kentucky in Tuesday's off-year election, and Ohio voters offered a sharp rebuke of the GOP's efforts to limit abortion rights.

The big picture: A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll shows Americans aren't excited about the Democratic or Republican frontrunners, Axios' April Rubin reports.

Disclosure: The AJC and Axios are both owned by Cox Enterprises, but Axios did not participate in the administration of the poll.

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