Trump at a campaign event in Clinton Township, Mich., in September. Photo: Emily Elconin/Bloomberg via Getty Images
If the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would easily beat President Joe Biden with over 300 electoral votes, according to a new swing state poll from The New York Times and Siena College.
Why it matters: The poll will increase anxiety among Democrats about the 2024 election and undermines the idea that Biden is the most electable Democrat against Trump.
By the numbers: The poll shows Trump leading Biden in five of six swing states — Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin —all of which Biden won in 2020.
- Biden led Trump in Wisconsin but is down 4 points in Pennsylvania, 5 in Arizona, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Michigan, and 10 in Nevada.
- 71 percent said Biden was "too old," including 54 percent of Biden's supporters.
- Only 39 percent of those voters felt the same about Trump, who would be the oldest president ever inaugurated and has shared no details about his health.
- Swing state voters said they trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a 22-point margin, 59 to 37 percent.
- Trump and Biden are effectively tied among voters under 30 — a large shift from 2020.
Biden also polls weaker than alternative Democrats, even Vice President Kamala Harris.
- Trump leads Biden by 5 points and Harris by only 3 points.
- A generic, unnamed Democrat fares even better with an 8-point lead over Trump — a 13-point swing from Biden.
What they're saying: Kevin Munoz, a spokesperson for Biden's re-election, told Axios that "predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don't take our word for it: Gallup predicted an eight point loss for President Obama only for him to win handedly a year later."
- He added: "We'll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll."
Flashback: Biden benefited from the same Times/Siena College poll 4 years ago, which showed him as the most electable Democrat against Trump.
- Biden's campaign seized on the poll and others like it to argue that he deserved the nomination because he had the best chance of beating Trump.
- The same poll four years later shows the opposite.