Axios

President Trump is mired in risk:

• Risk his Iran war of choice goes bad.
• Risk the February job losses are a trend, not a blip.
• Risk the stock market keeps dropping.
• Risk his tariffs, and now soaring oil costs, are pushing prices higher.
• Risk that deregulated AI accelerates job losses.
• Risk that Democratic enthusiasm leads to a midterm wipeout.

Why it matters: Trump fancies himself a high-risk, high-reward president, a confidence cheered by the vast majority of Republican officials and voters. But risk is risk — and by most measures, it's rising everywhere.

President Trump is positioning himself as a central architect of Iran's post-war future, demanding "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Friday.

The big picture: Trump is signaling ambitions that extend beyond military action into reshaping Iran's political and economic order just as he did in Venezuela. But experts warn it's not that simple.

In theory, an emergency that's blocking petro-flows and spiking prices should boost the case for clean energy. But in practice, it's way more complicated.

Why it matters: The Iran war is the biggest energy crisis since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, if not longer.

Oil and gasoline prices are marching upward again Friday, even as Trump administration officials seek ways to get more barrels into the market.

Why it matters: Ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and military threats to regional infrastructure are together shocking oil and natural gas markets.