Axios

The chief U.S. regulator of increasingly popular prediction markets says he'll treat them as financial products, arguing that most people aren't using prediction markets for "entertainment."

Why it matters: Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are soaring in popularity, and most of their trading volume is on sports — fueling a growing fight with state gambling regulators.

The country's nonprofit sector — organizations from food banks and homeless shelters to immigrant aid groups — is facing a crisis in the wake of federal funding cuts, advocates say.

Why it matters: The nation's most vulnerable people rely on these groups for help — and demand for services has increased over the past year amid higher inflation and cuts to federal programs like SNAP, or food stamps.

Weight-loss drugs are reshaping bridal retail — and David's Bridal is responding to brides' growing "fit anxiety" with a new guarantee.

Why it matters: GLP-1 medications are changing how consumers shop for wedding attire, forcing retailers to adapt to rapidly shifting body sizes, compressed shopping timelines and a surge in last-minute alterations.

eBay on Tuesday rejected a $55 billion takeover offer from GameStop, calling it "neither credible nor attractive."

The big picture: This reads like slapping away a mosquito, rather than trying to firm up financing or solicit a higher price.

For the first time in three years, American workers' paychecks are lagging behind inflation, a casualty of the Iran war energy shock.

Why it matters: The war's fallout has helped remove the financial cushion that insulated consumers. It comes as a tepid hiring environment has limited workers' ability to switch jobs and earn more pay.

• Workers are now earning less in real terms, a threat to spending that has kept the economy humming.

Yale University has long been a private markets trailblazer and ally, thanks to its alts-heavy endowment model.

• Now it may become a taxblazer, much to the private market's chagrin.

Driving the news: Yale's Budget Lab, a nonpartisan policy research center, recently published an analysis that argues that changing the tax treatment of carried interest could generate over $100 billion in new federal revenue over the next decade.

Consumer prices continued to surge in April, led by higher energy prices, the government said on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The April report shows that inflationary pressures tied to the Iran war are seeping into consumer prices, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates just as President Trump's pick is set to take the helm of the central bank.

Some two-thirds of Gen Z borrowers have pushed off one more life milestones because of their student loan debt, a new report out Tuesday found.

The big picture: Student loan debt in the U.S. tops $1 trillion and is central to Americans' affordability pains, now coupled with the possibility of wage garnishment for those in default after a pandemic-era pause ended last year.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 10 weeks now — a once unthinkable shock to the world economy — yet global oil prices aren't nearly as high as many people had expected.

Why it matters: The relatively restrained price movement helps explain why the global economy is holding up so far.

Amazon is pushing deeper into "instant retail" with a new 30-minute delivery service, escalating its speed race with Walmart, Target and delivery apps.

Why it matters: Retailers once competed to deliver in days, then hours. Now the race is to fulfill last-minute orders almost instantly — reshaping how consumers shop for everyday items.

Las Vegas has long been known as Sin City for its 24/7 access to all kinds of indecencies.

• America is quickly becoming Sin Nation. Or, as President Trump put it while discussing prediction markets in the Oval Office last month: "The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino."

Why it matters: Once-forbidden vices — weed, gambling and porn — are no longer confined to back alleys or the desert.

President Trump is meeting with his national security team Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked Sunday, three U.S. officials said.

Why it matters: U.S. officials say Trump wants a deal to end the war, but Iran's rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program puts the military option back on the table.