Axios

Boeing and the machinists union that's rejected two recent contract offers are edging closer to a deal.

Why it matters: The machinists' strike, which started seven weeks ago, has hobbled Boeing, sending the company scrambling to raise funds to shore up its balance sheet.

Investors may increasingly be looking at the Magnificent Seven as individuals rather than as a group.

The big picture: Hype around artificial intelligence — and the future profit explosion it could shower down — has driven the seven tech-focused stocks in the group to dizzying heights.

• Yes, but: They've been pouring billions into their efforts to capitalize.

Driving the news: This week's earnings reactions show an increasingly discerning investor.

Zoom in: Shares in Amazon surged 6% today after last night's quarterly results, driven by accelerating revenue growth and — perhaps more importantly — a strong operating margin, Hope reported last night.

Enabled by a softening labor market, employers seem quicker to fire workers these days for seemingly minor infractions.

Why it matters: Little things companies used to let slide — like bending the rules on expense accounts, free food or meal credits — can now land workers on the unemployment line.

Job growth ground to a halt in October, as hurricanes and striking workers held down employment. Yet even excluding those effects, the report brought some warning signs for the job market.

Why it matters: The one-off disruptions make parsing the report tricky. But noise aside, the signal underneath contains more cause for worry than a buoyant September report four weeks ago.

The U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, the government said Friday in the final report before the presidential election.

Why it matters: Disruptions from hurricanes and labor strikes limited job creation, but the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, a clue the labor market is still solid.

Since the Fed cut rates on Sept. 18, mortgage rates have actually been climbing.

Why it matters: The increase has depressed the beleaguered housing market, as would-be buyers who'd been gunning for lower rates are backing away and waiting it out.

Estée Lauder's stock plummeted Thursday after the beauty company withdrew its fiscal year outlook and cut its dividend.

The big picture: The retailer is getting roughed up in China, saying "worsened consumer sentiment" there was the primary driver of its 5% quarterly decline in overall organic net sales.

Traders are betting heavily on wild new upticks in bitcoin prices after next week's election.

Between the lines: Signs in the market indicate that folks trading on the future believe Republicans will have a strong showing in D.C.

Starting point: If you look at Deribit, the largest market for options in the crypto space, the two most popular call options for bitcoin are $80,000 and $100,000.

• That's a bet that BTC will be trading above that price.

Currently trading near $71,000, bitcoin has gained over 32% on its most recent run since Sept. 6.

• BTC is commonly viewed as a key chip in the so-called Trump Trade, which has fueled a rise in a number of assets expected to benefit if former President Trump wins back the White House.

Bettors on Polymarket have been growing in confidence that Ohio will send a Republican to the Senate in this election.

The intrigue: The market shifted on Oct. 15, just two days before internal polling, scooped by Axios, showed that Republican nominee Bernie Moreno's team believed he was in the lead.

Between the lines: We have been following the Ohio Senate race closely because it's seen as crucial to the crypto industry.

Reality check: RealClear Polling's average still favors incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown by one point. The campaign thinks it comes down to how Democrats perform at the top of the ticket there.

New York's moratorium on crypto mining (mainly: Bitcoin) expires in less than a month.

Why it matters: The trend in states lately has been to pass laws affirming the right to participate in Bitcoin, either as a user or as an operator of the network, but New York got the ball rolling in 2022 by going the other direction.

What we're watching: Nov. 22. That's when the mining moratorium ends.

• The authors of the 2022 moratorium have not replied to repeated requests from Axios for an update.

Zoom in: The legislation also called for a study on the environmental impact of mining.

• The state's Department of Environmental Conservation declined to give Axios an update on the study.

Inflation is a hair's width away from the Fed's target. Spending and incomes are growing nicely. Wage pressures on businesses keep moderating.

Why it matters: That is the happy picture of the economy offered by Thursday's rush of data. It summarizes what the next U.S. president, who will be chosen in five days and inaugurated in less than three months, will inherit.

U.S. politicians talk a big game about changing the tax treatment of carried interest. But then they fold.

• Apparently it's not just an American condition.

Private equity firms KKR and Energy Capital Partners announced a $50 billion strategic partnership that will invest in data centers and energy infrastructure for AI expansion.

Why it matters: This is the real AI gold rush, building the agent-agnostic architecture that will support any "above-ground" winners.

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation rose 2.1% in September compared to a year ago, within striking distance of the central bank's 2% target, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Why it matters: That data, one of the last major reports before the U.S. election and the Fed's policy decision next week, confirms the economy is solid as inflation pressures recede.

Women still make up a minority of students at business schools, per a report out Thursday.

Why it matters: B-school is an outlier — women represent the majority of enrollees at law schools and medical schools, and they surpassed men in undergrad enrollment decades ago.

The stock market is soaring. The largest share of Americans on record believe the run will continue.

Why it matters: It's a stark difference from the subdued sentiment about the booming economy.