Scoop: Moreno leads in GOP polling of Ohio Senate race

• Republicans have been telling Axios they feel bullish about Moreno's chances of ousting Brown, who has long leaned on his unique populist brand to hold on to a seat in a now-red state.
• Three weeks out, internal and public polls are starting to indicate Brown's popularity might not cut it with former President Trump at the top of the ballot. A Morning Consult poll released Thursday shows Moreno up by 1 percentage point.

Zoom in: A new Fabrizio Lee poll conducted for Moreno's campaign shows the Republican up 47% to 44%, within the poll's 3.1% margin of error.

• 7% of respondents said they had already voted for Moreno, and 7% said they already voted for Brown.
• Given that Democrats have generally been more likely to vote early, Republicans see the trend as a positive sign.
• The mid-October poll included 1,000 likely voters in Ohio.

The other side: Public polling averages still have Brown in front. He leads Moreno by 2.6% in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

• The McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund had Moreno down 6 percentage points in its internal polling this month.

Zoom out: The Ohio Senate race has become the most expensive congressional race of the cycle, with more than $483 million in ad spending and reservations since Jan. 1, 2023, according to AdImpact.

• Moreno's bid has been bolstered by a new, growing political force: crypto.
• A group affiliated with FairShake, the cryptocurrency industry PAC, has spent more than $40 million to help Moreno.
• Brown is viewed as one of crypto's top opponents, and he's currently the chair of the powerful Banking committee.