Scoop: Senate GOP privately predicts 52-seat majority
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Senate Republicans are privately telling their biggest donors the Montana Senate race is nearly in the bag and Ohio is heading their way, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: GOP leader Mitch McConnell has made knocking out Democrats in red states the calling card of his reign. Montana and Ohio are two of his last big goals.
- But to expand a 2025 majority past 52 seats, Republicans will need more money — and a good showing from former President Trump.
- The swing states in the presidential race, except for Georgia and North Carolina, also have competitive Senate contests.
🚨 NEWS: Jason Thielman, the executive director of the NRSC, broke down the view from the GOP's high command this weekend at an exclusive donor retreat in Sea Island, Georgia.
- Former President Trump is down by one point in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but up by one in Arizona, Thielman explained citing public polling, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Thielman told donors that the margin is closer than public polling showed Trump in either 2016 or 2020.
In Ohio, the polling has Trump winning by nine percentage points, with GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno currently down by two. Moreno is sitting on a big cash advantage over Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) for the remaining six weeks.
- The NRSC expects public polling in October to give Moreno a lead. And it was noted Moreno is looking better than Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) did at this stage of the race in 2022.
The intrigue: Thielman sounded the alarm on major funding gaps for the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.
- All of these states are in play, he said, but it will be difficult for Republicans to emerge victorious without fresh cash.
- "Senate Democrats are strongly positioned to defend our majority because the most important factors in every single Senate race are in Democrats' favor: we have the better candidates, the more effective message and the stronger campaigns," DSCC communications director David Bergstein told us.
By the numbers: In Michigan, there's a 2:1 money disadvantage for the GOP.
- In Arizona, it's 2.5:1.
- In Nevada, it's 1.5:1.
- In Wisconsin, it's 2:1.
Zoom out: September pitches to donors are usually a mix of hope and fear.
- There was plenty of optimism Republicans would win back control of the Senate but also deep concern the Democrats would bury them with money in the race's final weeks.
- The goal is to leave donors confident their contributions are making a difference but concerned they could be doing more.
- With Vice President Kamala Harris crushing Trump in the fundraising game, Senate Republicans have been warning for weeks about the Democratic Party's fundraising advantage
