Thursday's economy stories

Tesla robotaxi anticipation hits fever pitch ahead of debut
Tesla is poised to debut its long-awaited robotaxi Thursday night — and possibly an update on its humanoid robot — in a reveal that will require observers to separate sizzle from substance.
Why it matters: Tesla CEO Elon Musk has described self-driving car technology and AI robots as essential to the company's current stock valuation and its future.

Fisher-Price recalls 2.1 million swings after 5 infants died
More than 2 million Fisher-Price Snuga Swings were recalled following the deaths of five infants over a decade.
State of play: Suffocation risks prompted the recall, and customers are told to remove parts of the swing before continuing to use it for "awake-time activities" only.

TD Bank pleads guilty in DOJ money laundering case
TD Bank has agreed to pay more than $3 billion in federal penalties in connection with an admission that it failed to prevent money laundering, including by drug traffickers, and a massive Ponzi scheme.
Why it matters: TD Bank is the 10th largest bank in the U.S. with some $367 billion in assets as of Dec. 31, as well as 27,000 employees and more than 1,100 branches.
Market fakers
The Justice Department and the SEC have accused a group of firms of faking volume on crypto exchanges to make certain tokens look more popular than they are.
Why it matters: One of the reasons regulators have been reluctant to put the stamp of legitimacy on digital assets (such as by approving exchange-traded products) is because the space is known to be filled with market manipulation.
The latest: The two agencies took action yesterday against multiple individuals for "wash trading."
- The DOJ brought charges against 18 people and entities.
- The SEC brought action against three companies and nine individuals.
By the numbers: Ohio gets tighter
A race we've been following closely, Ohio's U.S. Senate campaign, got tighter this morning, according to new polls from Marist and the Washington Post.
Why it matters: Ohio is the most expensive Senate race in the nation. It's driven in no small part by crypto money that's poured in to support Bernie Moreno, the Republican challenger to Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown.
The latest: Marist shows Brown leading 50% to 48%, but that's within its 2.9% margin of error.
- The Washington Post puts it closer: Brown leading, 48% to 47%, with a 3.5% margin of error.
- That's either a four- or five-point jump for Moreno, since the late September New York Times/Siena poll.

Consumer Price Index report shows ongoing inflation risks


Inflation is no longer a crisis, but it hasn't fully gone away as a problem. Thursday's Consumer Price Index report helps explain why.
Why it matters: The latest data, paired with minutes of the last Fed meeting and last week's jobs report, make clear that no one should be particularly confident that much lower interest rates are imminent.
The big picture: Overall inflation kept trending lower, helped by a sharp drop in energy prices — the latest clue that steep price increases are in the past.
- CPI rose 2.4% in the 12 months through September — the smallest increase since early 2021. On a monthly basis, the index rose 0.2%.
- The Social Security Administration announced, based on the latest data, that beneficiaries will receive a 2.5% cost of living adjustment in January — an average of $50 per month.
Yes, but: Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy, ticked up to 3.3% over the last year and has risen at a 3.1% annual rate over the last three months. Both numbers imply an inflation trend that has remained well above the Fed's target.
- Core services rose 0.4% for the month and are up 4.7% over the last year, also pointing to continued price pressure.
The intrigue: The firmer-than-expected core CPI figure comes despite signs of relief in housing. That has been the key category keeping inflation high — that was still the case in September, but price gains did cool.
- Overall shelter costs rose 0.2% last month, down from the 0.5% increase in August as rental price increases cooled. Economists have been waiting for slower rent gains apparent in private sector data to filter through to the official government data.
- This might be a sign that is finally happening, which — if continued — could help ease inflation further in the months ahead. But that's far from guaranteed; there have been head fakes in the past.
Between the lines: The Fed lowered interest rates by a jumbo half-percentage point last month. Minutes released on Wednesday from that meeting show more apprehension among officials than initially believed.
- "Some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25-basis-point reduction of the target range at this meeting," the minutes read — adding that others "could have supported" such a decision.
Zoom in: The preference to move gingerly in lowering rates is apparent in some recent Fedspeak.
- "While the upside risks to inflation have diminished, they have not vanished," Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan said in a speech Wednesday. "I continue to see a meaningful risk that inflation could get stuck above our 2 percent goal."
The bottom line: Odds overwhelmingly show the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting.
- But futures markets are beginning to see a small chance the Fed won't cut at all, according to a tracker from the CME Group.

Social Security benefits to increase 2.5% in 2025
Social Security retirement and disability benefits for 2025 will increase by 2.5% and about $50 a month starting in January, the government announced Thursday.
Why it matters: The cost-of-living adjustment, known as COLA, is lower than the average of the last decade of 2.6%.

GM debuts Tesla Powerwall competitor
General Motors is launching a battery-powered home-energy storage system, placing the company in direct competition with Tesla.
Why it matters: Stationary power storage can serve as an alternative to home generators and can provide a charge to electric vehicles when the electricity is out.

Inflation falls to 2.4%, lowest in three years


The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in the 12-month period that ended in September, while a gauge that strips out food and energy prices was 3.3%, the government said Thursday.
Why it matters: The September CPI report is the latest data indicating that the inflation crisis is in the rear view mirror, with few signs of price pressures reigniting.

China volatility returns


Last week, the entire country of China somehow became a meme stock. Now the party looks as though it's over — for the time being.
Why it matters: China's leadership is attempting something very delicate and difficult — it wants to boost the economy without inflating a speculative bubble in asset prices.

The elderly caregiving crisis is an economic problem
Kamala Harris' proposal to create a Medicare benefit for long-term home care targets an underappreciated part of the economy: caregiving.
Why it matters: The sector is staffed by underpaid and unpaid workers — mostly women — carrying out crucial jobs that will only become more important as the population ages.

New on Netflix, Hulu, Max: Shows and movies to watch this week
Here's what's new on Hulu, Netflix, Peacock, Apple TV+, Prime Video and Max.
What we're watching: The return of "Abbott Elementary" and "Outer Banks," plus a documentary featuring new interviews with the Menendez brothers.






