Axios

Trump adviser Steve Bannon speaks to the New York Times and demands to be quoted. So here it is:

"The media should be embarrassed and humiliated and keep its mouth shut and just listen for awhile," Mr. Bannon said during a telephone call. "I want you to quote this," Mr. Bannon added. "The media here is the opposition party. They don't understand this country. They still do not understand why Donald Trump is the president of the United States."

There's more:

"The elite media got it dead wrong, 100 percent dead wrong," Mr. Bannon said of the election, calling it "a humiliating defeat that they will never wash away, that will always be there."

"The mainstream media has not fired or terminated anyone associated with following our campaign," Mr. Bannon said. "Look at the Twitter feeds of those people: they were outright activists of the Clinton campaign." (He did not name specific reporters or editors.) "That's why you have no power," Mr. Bannon added. "You were humiliated."

"You're the opposition party," Mr. Bannon said. "Not the Democratic Party. You're the opposition party. The media's the opposition party."

Caterpillar released earnings Thursday, missing analysts' revenue expectations and reducing its outlook for profits in 2017. The firm's struggles call into question investor enthusiasm for the U.S. economy following the election.

During a call with analysts, CEO Jim Umpleby said that slow growth in places like Brazil and China cut into profits last year, and that he doesn't expect any returns from U.S. infrastructure spending until at least 2018. As a net exporter, the firm is optimistic about border adjusted tax reform, though a projected stronger dollar would mitigate the effects.

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Data: Money.net; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Ronnie Moas of Standpoint Research placed a sell rating on the stock, arguing its rise in recent months puts too much faith in the Trump Administration's ability to execute priorities, without factoring in a backlash from trading partners.

Economic risk abounds: A delay or watering down of infrastructure spending, a hastening of the decline in China's economy, or the escalation of trade could hit American profits and deflate investor optimism.

The issue:

President Trump has called NAFTA "the single worst trade deal ever approved in this country" and tweeted that it's "been a one-sided deal from the beginning."

The facts:

The North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect in 1994 and allowed for the free exchange of goods between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The removal of trade barriers led to a tripling of trade, but also a sharp in increase in the trade deficit. Here's a graph of the U.S. deficit with Mexico:

Why it matters:

Trump has vowed to renegotiate NAFTA to give U.S. workers a better deal. Eliminating NAFTA would mean more expensive goods for American consumers, and maybe more domestic manufacturing jobs. But the trade deficit is a lousy measure for any of this. More exports means more American jobs. You'd rather have $10 worth of exports and $15 worth of imports than $8 of both and no trade deficit. If higher imports are the product of unfair trade practices, and those products could be reasonably made here, shrinking the trade deficit makes sense, but not if shrinking the trade deficit comes at the expense of export growth.

2017 is looking good for luxury brands. That's because investors are confident that weakening security fears in Europe and potential U.S. tax cuts for the wealthy will lead to a strong earnings season for the high-end industry, per the WSJ.

This is the business of happiness... You buy these kinds of products when things are stable. — Bernstein luxury analyst Mario Ortelli

Much of the optimism arises from investors betting luxury consumers in the industry's best two markets — China and the U.S. — are ready to ramp up sales growth again following a shaky few years impacted by the terrorist attacks in Europe and a controversial U.S. presidential election. The S&P Global Luxury Index has already risen 4.5% so far this year, and is expected to keep climbing.

Chelsea Manning, who received a commutation last week, has an op-ed in The Guardian that says Obama has been unable to stand up to his opposition. Looking forward, Manning calls for an "unapologetic progressive leader" who isn't so quick to compromise.

Trump, who has publicly criticized Obama's decision to cut Manning's lengthy prison sentence, took to Twitter to blast Manning's open letter — calling her a "TRAITOR."

If his tweet has you wondering if he now reads The Guardian, rest assured. He probably saw it on Fox News:

Donald Trump has perfected the art of bashing the media, "the most dishonest people on earth," in his view. But no president has been more obsessed with every form of it, from traditional cable shows to, of course, Twitter. Trump's tactics could serve as clues as to how his administration will oversee and influence different forms of media over the next four years.

The S&P 500 has surged 5.4% since election day. It's the "Trump Rally."

But a closer look at the individual companies that are driving the stock market surge, and broader economic data, paint a more complicated picture:

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Data: Money.net; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Sure, investors like what Trump's saying: Corporate tax cuts, less regulation, and infrastructure spending will all be good for corporate profits. But Trump is not the only game in the global economy.

Other drivers of the rally include:

1. A stronger dollar: While this hurts multinationals who do business in foreign countries, a stronger dollar generally means that American companies are more valuable relative to foreign assets.
2. Signs of life abroad: China has long-term problems, but the government there has been able to prop up growth for the time being. Even Europe is perking up, with Germany announcing this month that 2016 growth was the fastest in five years.
3. Agriculture companies: They're benefiting from being oversold in 2015 and 2016 out of fears of a global slowdown. But developing economies have kept their heads above water, and everyone's gotta eat.

The S&P 500 has climbed 5.4% since Donald Trump was elected president. Not everyone has gotten in on the party.

Retail stocks have taken a beating because fewer people are going to offline stores and and investors are predicting that tax reform will hurt those who sell imported goods. The worst performers since November 8th:

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Data: Money.net; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

President Trump's recent fascination with his inaugural crowd size shouldn't be a surprise. Going back to the very height of his business career, he's always been obsessed with demonstrably proving his popularity, especially through television ratings. The problem? Historically, he hasn't been very good at interpreting them.

Apple is getting close to finalizing a deal to manufacture its products in India, which could help the company get around the country's tax and tariff laws, according to the WSJ. A team of company execs led by Apple VP Priya Balasubramaniam met with senior Indian government officials in New Delhi on Wednesday to negotiate how to move forward. One official said, "It's almost a done deal."

Smart take: The deal could help Apple strengthen its brand in a country where it has less than 5% share of a thriving smartphone market. Smartphone shipments in India grew 18% last year, compared with just 3% globally, according to Counterpoint Research.

Where there's trouble: Trump told Axios that he "really believes" Apple CEO Tim Cook will move iPhone production back to the U.S. because he "loves this country." It appears that Cook and the president are not on the same page.