Updated Nov 5, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Election night cheat sheet: Timings and tips for tracking the results

Animated illustration of a checkmark rotating to reveal a question mark. — Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Around 80 million voters cast ballots early, tens of millions more lined up today, and it's all likely to come down to seven swing states.

Why it matters: We may or may not know for sure whether former President Trump or Vice President Harris has been elected by the end of the night. But following the real-time data and zooming in on key counties can give you a sense of where things are headed.

Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.

Catch up quick: The polling models consider this a coinflip election.

It's likely to be decided by five states that flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — along with Nevada and North Carolina.
In Congress, Democrats would need a huge night to retain control of the Senate, as more vulnerable Dems are on the ballot this cycle. Control of the House is very much up for grabs.

A map shows the swing states that may decide the 2024 presidential election. Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia are highlighted in purple. — Map: Axios Visuals

When polls close

Breaking it down: The Axios live results dashboard started filling in as soon as the first polls closed at 6pm ET.

Georgia and Virginia closed at 7pm ET, North Carolina and Ohio are among those closing at 7:30pm ET, and critical Pennsylvania is among the 16 states that cuts off voting at 8pm ET.
The last swing state polls to close will be in Arizona and Nevada at 10pm ET.

A map showing when first election results are expected, by state. In general, the further west a state is, the later its results are expected to be available. — Data: AP; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

When we'll know who won

The time it takes to count ballots varies widely by state.

The Harris campaign says it expects near-complete results from three swing states — Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina — on election night, along with most of Wisconsin's results by Wednesday morning.
Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada will likely be counting ballots through Wednesday and beyond.

A cartogram categorizing the time from when polls closed in a state to AP calling a winner for that state in the 2020 presidential election. 31 states had their races called within one hour of polls closing, 34 took up to 24 hours, Pennsylvania and Nevada took 3.5 days and 3 states (Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina) were not called for more than 5 days after polls closed. — Data: The Associated Press, Politico; Cartogram: Jacque Schrag/Axios

Between the lines: Based on that timeline, we could have a pretty clear idea of who won on election night.

If either candidate wins Michigan and the two southern swing states, for example, the other would have only a very narrow path to victory.

Yes, but: If it's as close as the polls suggest, we might not know who won for up to a few days. That may be frustrating, but it's not a sign of fraud.

Trump will likely declare victory on election night regardless of what the results show, and some of his allies have claimed the only way he'll lose is if the Democrats cheat. Those claims have no basis in fact.

How we'll know who's winning

State-level results can only tell you so much while they're still trickling in, so we've spotlighted 13 key counties to watch based on analysis from the Cook Political Report. Three examples:

Saginaw County, Michigan, flipped to Trump in 2016 before Biden won it by a mere 303 votes in 2020. It's a good barometer for Harris' chances of holding the "Blue Wall" and winning over enough working-class white voters.
Baldwin County, Georgia, went to Biden by just 1.3 points in 2020. The primarily rural county over-indexes with Black voters and college students, shedding light on enthusiasm levels for Harris with both groups.
Northampton County, Pennsylvania, is a classic bellwether county with a significant Puerto Rican population, meaning it could give us a sense of where PA is headed — and of how damaging Trump's Madison Square Garden rally may have been.
Read the full breakdown.

A map showing the 13 counties that Cook Political Report says to watch on Election Night, including three in Pennsylvania, two each in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan, and one in Arizona and Nevada. — Data: Cook Political Report; Map: Axios Visuals

Zoom out: States we don't expect to come down to the wire can still tell us quite a bit.

If the networks quickly call Virginia for Harris, for example, that will be a major confidence booster for her campaign. A tight race there could signal trouble, given Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020.
Yes, but: Rural counties tend to report first. If you see Trump winning Virginia early on don't assume it will stay that way.

Turnout: Three wildcards

Low-propensity voters: Historically, elections with high turnout have favored Democrats. But this time that's less clear cut as Harris is leading among older, college-educated voters, while Trump is relying on young men without college degrees who turn out at lower rates.
Black voters: Harris' camp is counting on Black turnout in a few big cities in swing states like Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Charlotte. If turnout exceeds 50% in Detroit, Harris is likely having a good night.
Gen Z voters: While Gen Z men are moving right, America's youngest voters still overwhelmingly back Dems. Younger voters turned out in force for Biden in 2020, something Harris hopes to repeat, but at lower rates for Clinton in 2016.

Control of Congress also up for grabs

All 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats are on the line today.

Senate: Republicans are very almost certain to pick up retiring Sen. Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia, meaning they need just one more flip to guarantee control of the Senate.

Several Democrats are in tight races, and Montana Sen. Jon Tester looks particularly vulnerable.

House: Democrats only need to pick up four seats to flip the House, and whichever party gains control is likely to have a slender majority.

There are competitive races all over the country, including in deep blue California and New York.

What Harris and Trump will be doing

Harris is hosting a watch party tonight at her alma mater, Howard University, in D.C.

She voted by mail in her home state of California.

Trump is expected to cast his ballot in Florida, and his campaign is hosting a party at the Palm Beach Convention Center.

Trump will also gather with family and friends at Mar-a-Lago.

Go deeper: Follow the live results.

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