These are the "canary" House races to watch on Nov. 5
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It may be days or even weeks after Nov. 5 before control of the White House and Congress becomes clear, but several House races could serve as early indications of which way the night is going.
Why it matters: These are the canaries in the coal mine for both parties, highly competitive races in states that report their votes early and quickly.
- Strategists in both parties told Axios they will be watching key swing races in Eastern and Midwestern states that tend to report most of their votes on Election Day.
- Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.
Virginia: Polls close here at 7pm ET and the lion's share of votes should be counted by the end of the night, according to the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight.
- Republicans believe a good result in Virginia's 7th District, where Democrats are trying to hang onto the seat vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who is running for governor, will portend a good night for their party.
- Ditto for Democrats in the state's 2nd District, where Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) is locked in a competitive race but is still seen as a slight favorite to win reelection.
North Carolina: Polls close at 7:30pm ET and most votes should be tallied up not long after midnight.
- Republicans are looking to the race in North Carolina's 1st District, where Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is defending highly competitive territory, as another bellwether.
Florida: Polls in most parts of the state close at 7pm ET and Florida is known to be one of the fastest states at counting votes, with all precincts typically reporting relatively early on election night.
- Democrats feel if they have a good showing against GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna or Maria Salazar in the state's 13th and 27th districts, it will mean a great night for them overall.
- Republicans are favored in both districts.
Michigan: Polls close at 8pm ET and the state passed new reforms this year to speed up vote counting after a sluggish process in 2020.
- Both parties will be keeping a close eye on Michigan's 8th District, a pure toss-up race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee.
- The race to replace Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the 7th District is seen as slightly favoring Republicans. Democrats believe they will have a good night if they can hold on to the seat.
- The race in Michigan's 10th District, where GOP Rep. John James is seen as a slight favorite for reelection, may be slower due to the district's largest city opting out of the voting reforms.
Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8pm ET, but election workers can't begin processing mail-in ballots until Election Day. Still, 87% of precincts were reported by midnight in 2022.
- Republicans are keeping a close eye on Democratic Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in the state's 7th and 8th districts, while Democrats are watching GOP Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) in the 10th District. All three races are toss-ups.
- Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) in Pennsylvania's 17th District is considered somewhat safer. Republicans believe a win there would mean the bottom falling out for Democrats.
New York: Polls don't close here until 9pm ET and mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted until a week after Nov. 5, but the sheer number of battleground districts makes it worth watching.
- Democrats expect to take out GOP Reps. Anthony D'Esposito and Brandon Williams in the 4th and 22nd districts, while Republicans believe Reps. Nick LaLota and Mike Lawler will hang on in the 1st and 17th districts.
- New York's 19th District, where Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro is fighting for reelection, is one of the most hotly contested races of the cycle and a decisive result either way could preview the night ahead.
- Republicans are also hoping for a surprise in New York's 3rd and 18th districts, where Democratic Reps. Pat Ryan and Tom Suozzi are both favored.
