Why 2024 could see another "red mirage" and "blue shift"
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Don't let the early results on Election Night fool you. Delayed absentee ballot counts in key swing states could tilt how the presidential race ultimately shakes out.
Why it matters: President Trump seized on phenomena known as the "red mirage" and "blue shift" to push baseless claims in 2020 that the election had been stolen. Experts say there's potential for a similar shift this year, too.
- As in 2020, several battleground states — including Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — have warned that counting all the absentee and mail-in ballots could extend beyond Nov. 5.
- Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.
State of play: Many states typically count ballots cast in person on Election Day first, followed by the trove of early and absentee ballots, according to the Brookings Institute.
- Varying state laws dictate when different states begin processing early and absentee ballots, per the National Conference of State Legislatures.
- Early voting in-person or by mail has grown in popularity since the turn of the century. It increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- So far, pre-election voting in 2024 is far below the levels seen in 2020, the Washington Post reported. But more Republicans cast their ballots early than they did four years ago.
How it works: Historically, voters from smaller and more rural counties tend to cast their ballots on Election Day, per an analysis of the 2020 election from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.
- If that trend holds, it could create the appearance that Trump and Republicans are in the lead — the so-called "red mirage."
- However, as absentee and mail-in ballots, typically originating from denser, more urban precincts that lean Democratic, are tabulated, the outcome in certain states could change — leading to a "blue shift" on the electoral map.
Between the lines: "Trump's hostility to absentee voting has lessened somewhat" since 2020, helping narrow the disparity in absentee voting rates between Democratic and Republican voters, Edward Foley, an election law expert at Ohio State University, told Axios.
- The blue shift in 2024 is also likely to be smaller than it was in 2020 because it is no longer being fueled by COVID-19 pandemic, Foley added.
- However, despite efforts by Trump and some of his allies to boost early voting, almost half of Republican candidates for Congress or top state offices have already cast doubt on the results of the election, the Washington Post reported.
Flashback: In 2020, states like Georgia and Michigan turned from red to blue on the electoral map as more ballots were received and counted, prompting Trump and his allies to claim the results were rigged and the election stolen.
State of play: Trump and his allies have repeatedly refused to say whether they will accept the results of the 2024 election.
- Trump has already begun laying the groundwork for a potential challenge by preemptively accusing the Democrats of cheating and filing over 100 lawsuits over various voting and election procedures.
- Both the Trump and Harris campaigns have lined up lawyers in preparation for potential legal challenges over the election results.
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