MAGA world's hyper-confidence
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
Donald Trump's surrogates, allies and foot soldiers appear supremely confident he'll be re-elected president next week, projecting an air of inevitability inconsistent with what polls portray as a coin-flip election.
- A longtime member of Trump's inner circle told Axios: "We've never had data that looks this good."
Why it matters: Trump could win, potentially in a landslide. So could Vice President Harris. And yet the MAGA universe largely refuses to entertain the latter outcome — priming Trump's base for mass distrust, disbelief and denial of a second straight election loss.
- "The Republicans are projecting an image of a landslide and are hyped on early voting numbers in a way I have never seen before," Split Ticket elections analyst Lakshya Jain tweeted Sunday.
- "You can credibly construct an argument for Trump as a favorite, but we can do that for Harris too," he added.
The big picture: Like most partisan media, the pro-Trump echo chamber self-selects news, polls and predictions that point to a decisive victory for the former president on Nov. 5.
- Conservative media routinely downplay Trump's vulnerabilities — such as his racist rhetoric and his former chief of staff suggesting he's a "fascist" — while amplifying Harris' gaffes and bad polls.
- Pro-Trump X accounts with huge followings have triumphantly declared at various points during the campaign — most recently after Trump's McDonald's photo op and his appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast — that the election is "over."
- Some MAGA influencers exploit gullible followers by citing anonymous "DC insiders" or "White House officials" who allegedly say Harris' internal polling has collapsed — racking up thousands of reposts.
- Prediction markets, which many people mistakenly treat as polls, show Trump with far higher odds of winning than election models do — buoyed by anonymous "whales" who have placed enormous bets on that outcome.
Between the lines: All of this — paired with the already rampant MAGA belief that Democrats "rig" elections — is setting the stage for a wholesale rejection of a potential Harris victory by Trump supporters.
- "[T]here is a real danger when media echo chambers falsely and knowingly tell half the country that their candidate is going to win," conservative writer Matt Lewis warned Monday.
- "People wake up to the results the morning after the election, and are incredulous."
What they're saying: At Trump's triumphant rally at New York's Madison Square Garden on Sunday, guest speaker Tucker Carlson captured the sort of conspiratorial thinking fostered by this bubble of hyper-confidence.
- "Ten days from now ... It's going to be pretty hard to look at us and say, 'You know what? Kamala Harris, she got 85 million votes because she's just so impressive,' " Carlson said mockingly.
- In Carlson's eyes, Trump is winning so comfortably — and Harris is so unpopular — that Democrats will not be able to "get away with" claiming they won the election like they did in 2020.
Zoom in: Trump himself has falsely claimed that the only way he could lose the 2024 election is if Democrats "cheat," ignoring polls that show a margin-of-error race in all seven battleground states.
- "She's actually imploding, if you take a look, because look, I'm not supposed to say it, but we are leading by so much," Trump declared in Las Vegas last week.
- "We're leading by a lot in Nevada. We're leading by a lot in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even states that are typically never in play."
Behind the scenes: Internal polls "have Trump doing well in all seven swing states. He's up, but still within the margin of error. They are right to project confidence for that reason," a source involved in the Trump campaign told Axios.
- "However, arrogance is how mistakes are made — such as the stupid fucking rally [on Sunday]," the source added, referring to Trump's controversial rally at Madison Square Garden.
The other side: Some devoted Democrats believe Harris will win in a landslide, unable to fathom how millions of Americans could support someone like Trump.
- Others are "nauseously optimistic," as Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) described her feelings to Axios.
- But writ large, the Democratic Party is far more prone to hand-wringing and bed-wetting than Republicans are, fueling the notion that the election favors Trump more than the data suggest.
What to watch: There are signs the Trump campaign truly believes the former president is dominating the race — or at least wants the public to believe that in the final days before the election.
- Trump will campaign in New Mexico on Thursday and Virginia on Saturday, venturing into Democratic-leaning territories where most forecasts don't think he has a chance.
- It could be confidence, or it could be hubris. We'll find out next week.
The bottom line: "In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast," polling guru Nate Silver wrote in the New York Times last week.
Axios' Alex Thompson, Mike Allen and Andrew Solender contributed reporting.
