Axios

The U.S. shot down a pro-Syrian regime drone near a training base for U.S.-backed forces in al Tanf, Syria, on Monday, per the AP. This marks the third time the U.S. has downed a pro-regime aircraft this month (including a Syrian aircraft itself), marking an escalation of the conflict.

Why it matters: This suggests the U.S. isn't backing down from defending itself against hostile acts despite the Russian warning it would treat U.S. aircraft flying west of the Euphrates as targets.

A Russian jet flew within five feet of an Air Force recon plane over the Baltic Sea, per Fox News. And it happened just one day after Russia told the United States that any U.S.-led coalition planes over Syria west of the Euphrates River were considered potential targets.

American officials told Fox News the Russian jet was "provocative" and flying "erratically," deeming the encounter "unsafe."

Sounds familiar: There have been at least 35 encounters in the Baltic region this month alone between Russian and American military assets, but yesterday's incident adds to a long list of publicly reported provocative Russian military moves during the first few months of the Trump administration.

Russia's defense ministry said Monday that it will treat U.S.-led coalition planes west of the Euphrates in Syria as targets after the U.S. downed a Syrian jet over the weekend, bringing an end to the agreement between the U.S. and Moscow, reports FT.

The no-fly zone demanded by Russia: Key cities like Aleppo and Damascus would be out of bounds for coalition aircraft. Most Kurdish and ISIS territory would not. (Go deeper with this map by Axios' Lazaro Gamio.)

Why it matters: The incident is the first time the U.S.-led coalition has shot down a Syrian plane since the beginning of the country's civil war six years ago. Moscow denounced the action as a violation of international law and has reportedly suspended its incident-prevention hotline with the U.S. in Syria in retaliation, per AFP.

This Atlantic cover story (online soon) by Mark Bowden, author of "Black Hawk Down" and the new "Huế 1968," gives us some new baseline thoughts about the dilemma North Korea poses for the U.S.:

• "Thirty minutes. That's how long it would take a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched from North Korea to reach Los Angeles."
• "Even failed tests move North Korea closer to its goal possessing nuclear weapons capable of hitting U.S. cities."
• "Kim [Jong-un] may end up trapped in the circular logic of his strategy. He seeks to avoid destruction by building a weapon that, if used, assures his destruction."
• "Every option the United State has for dealing with North Korea is bad."
• "An American first strike would likely trigger one of the worst mass killings in human history."
• "Would the U.S. sacrifice Los Angeles to save Seoul?"

This map shows the fading fortunes of the Islamic State as it has been beaten back on multiple fronts over the past two years. It's based on data collected by analysts at IHS Markit Conflict Monitor, a service that gathers open-source intelligence on the fighting in Syria and Iraq.