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National

Macro

Axios Macro

The Trump administration will investigate whether to slap tariffs on lumber imports on the grounds of national security, raising the risk of higher costs for the construction industry and homebuyers.

Why it matters: It is the latest economically critical input — including steel, aluminum and copper — to get swept up into President Trump's trade war in an effort to boost domestic industry.

A senior White House official said it is not certain whether the Commerce Department, which will carry out the investigation under Section 232, will ultimately impose tariffs.

The official told reporters that these tariffs would be additive to others threatened by Trump.

For instance, the White House plans to impose across-the-board 25% tariffs on imports from Canada — the largest supplier of lumber to the U.S.

Threat level: The administration says the investigation would determine whether foreign governments were dumping cheap lumber onto U.S. shores.

If tariffs move ahead, it could make it more expensive, for example, for California to rebuild after destruction from the Los Angeles wildfires. 

Flashback: Soaring lumber prices were a poster child of the inflation shock. Shortages of the building material slowed construction and put upward pressure on home prices.

In 2024, the Biden administration nearly doubled tariffs on imports of Canadian softwood lumber to 14.5%.

State of play: The homebuilding industry has previously warned that raising tariffs further would have a "harmful effect" on housing affordability — most recently earlier this year, before Trump postponed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

"Tariffs on lumber and other building materials increase the cost of construction and discourage new development, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices," the National Association of Homebuilders, a lobbying group, said in a statement in January.

Trump lumber tariff threat is latest headache for homebuilders

The Trump administration will investigate whether to slap tariffs on lumber imports.

Piles of lumber at a home improvement store in Falls Church, Va. Photo: SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

Tariffs

Latest news on Wall Street, Corporate America and financial regulation.

Business

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

Palestinians continue traditional Ramadan celebrations in the southern Gaza Strip to a backdrop of devastation from Israeli attacks in the Israel-Hamas war. 

The big picture: While observed last year in the thick of the humanitarian crisis, the monthlong Islamic holiday is celebrated this year amid a Gaza ceasefire deal and 42-day truce, which ends on Saturday.

Yes, but: The deal maintains that the ceasefire will continue as long as negotiations continue on the deal's next phase, Axios reported.

Go deeper: Hamas sends to Israel bodies of 4 hostages, completing 1st phase of Gaza deal

Ramadan celebrations in Gaza and around the world

Muslims perform the first tarawih prayer of the holy month of Ramadan in Moscow

Muslims perform the first tarawih prayer of the holy month of Ramadan in Moscow, Russia on February 27, 2025. Photo: Sefa Karacan/Anadolu via Getty Images

Child in white holds edge of green mosque dome

A child is seen next to the dome of the mosque as observatory officers check astronomical calculation tools to determine the beginning of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan based on the sighting of the new crescent moon at Al Mabrur mosque in Surabaya on February 28. Photo: Juni Kriswanto/ AFP via Getty Images

 Emirati officers fire the iftar, or fast-breaking, cannon under a gray sky with tall buildings in the background

Emirati officers fire the iftar, or fast-breaking, cannon near Burj Khalifa in the centre of Dubai, a tradition signalling sunset and the end of fasting for observing Muslims, on the first day of the holy month of Ramadan on March 1. Photo: Fadel Senna/ AFP via Getty Images

Children celebrate the arrival of the holy month of Ramadan as they carry lanterns at the Old City of Mosul, Iraq on February 28. Photo: Ismael Adnan Yaqoob/Anadolu via Getty Images

A child lays in between aisles of Muslims praying

Muslims offer the first Tarawih prayers to mark the start of the Islamic holy fasting month of Ramadan at the Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin mosque in Putrajaya on March 1, 2025. Photo: Arif Kartono / AFP via Getty Images

Afghans sell dry fruits at a market ahead of the Islamic holy fasting month of Ramadan, in Kabul on February 27. Photo: Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images

Palestinians are having first sahur (pre-dawn) meal of the holy month of Ramadan under the lights they hung among the buildings and houses that were heavily damaged and some of them were completely destroyed in the Israeli army's attacks on Gaza on February 28

Palestinians are having first sahur (pre-dawn) meal of the holy month of Ramadan under the lights they hung among the buildings and houses that were heavily damaged and some of them were completely destroyed in the Israeli army's attacks on Gaza on February 28 in Khan Yunis, Gaza. Photo: Ali Jadallah/Anadolu via Getty Images

 An aerial view of the Umayyad Square, decorated with lights and figures symbolizing the holy month of Ramadan, in Damascus, Syria on March 1

An aerial view of the Umayyad Square, decorated with lights and figures symbolizing the holy month of Ramadan, in Damascus, Syria on March 1. Photo: Bakr Al Kasem/ Anadolu via Getty Images

A group of Palestinians in Gaza City, located in the northern Gaza Strip, celebrate the arrival of the holy month of Ramadan by sparking 'a spark' on March 1

A group of Palestinians in Gaza City, located in the northern Gaza Strip, celebrate the arrival of the holy month of Ramadan by sparking 'a spark' on March 1. Photo: Mahmoud Hamda/ Anadolu via Getty Images

Hamas sends to Israel bodies of 4 hostages, completing 1st phase of Gaza deal

In photos: Ramadan kicks off in Gaza amid ceasefire deal

The monthlong Islamic holiday is celebrated amid a Gaza ceasefire deal and 42-day truce ending Saturday.

Group of children with one in the center with two fingers up with each hand

Palestinian children hold traditional Ramadan lanterns as they celebrate the arrival of the holy month amid the ruins of destroyed buildings in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip, on February 26. Photo: Ashraf Amra/Anadolu via Getty Images

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Saturday announced his bid for New York City mayor. 

Why it matters: Cuomo, who resigned as governor because of a sexual harassment scandal, is seeking to stage a political comeback, and early polling shows he's a leading contender to oust embattled Mayor Eric Adams.

What he's saying: Cuomo said in a post on X that he is running because the "city is in crisis." 

"We need government to work," he said. "We need effective leadership."

State of play: The primary race is already proving to be heated.

Adams is running for re-election despite a federal bribery and fraud indictment, though his criminal case may ultimately get dropped after the DOJ ordered the charges withdrawn. 

Adams has withstood calls to resign, which intensified after he publicly pledged to assist President Trump's administration with its immigration crackdown.

City Comptroller Brad Lander, Queens state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, former city comptroller Scott Stringer and Queens state Sen. Jessica Ramos are also in the Democratic race. 

The NYC mayoral primary is in June and the general election is in November. 

Zoom out: Cuomo had started signaling his interest in the role before Adams' indictment, Axios' Avery Lotz and Hans Nichols previously reported. 

Cuomo resigned as governor of New York in 2021 after an independent investigation found that he sexually harassed multiple women. He has denied wrongdoing. 

The Department of Justice found that Cuomo and his executive staff maintained a sexually hostile work environment and violated federal retaliation rules. 

Between the lines: Several polls have shown Cuomo leading among Democratic candidates. 

Cuomo held 33% support in a February poll of NYC Democratic primary voters, compared to Adams' 10%, according to Emerson College Polling.

Another recent survey showed Cuomo leading with 35% of the vote, followed by Lander, per Honan Strategy Group.

Go deeper: Andrew Cuomo eyes NYC mayor job

Editor's note: This story has been updated with Cuomo's X statement.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo announces NYC mayor bid

Early polling shows he's a leading contender to oust embattled Mayor Eric Adams.

Andrew Cuomo stands at a lectern with a large window behind him showing the Manhattan skyline 

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo speaks during a press conference at One World Trade Center in June 2021 in New York City. Photo: David Dee Delgado/Getty Images

Whats Next

Axios What's Next

A symbol map of the U.S. showing the 100 biggest MSAs by their share of overall out-of-county movers with a bachelor's degree or higher in 2023. New York leads at 6.1%, while McAllen, Texas trails at 0.1%.

Where college-educated movers went in 2023

Data: U.S. Census Bureau; Map: Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios

New York City; Washington, D.C., and Dallas are the hottest destinations for college-educated Americans leaving their home county, per the latest census data.

Why it matters: White-collar workers tend to go where they think the jobs are, and cities are constantly competing with one another to attract well-paid professionals — and the tax revenue they often bring.

By the numbers: Among Americans age 25 and up with a bachelor's degree or better who moved to a new county in 2023, 6.1% went to NYC, 3.5% to D.C. and 3.2% to Dallas.

They're followed up by Atlanta (2.9%), Los Angeles (2.4%) and Chicago (2.4%).

Other hotspots: Denver (2.4%), Boston (2.2%) and San Francisco (2.1%).

How it works: These numbers are based on the 2023 one-year American Community Survey and include people who moved in the year prior to answering the survey.

The bottom line: The time-old tale of New York being a big draw for white-collar workers holds true as ever, but plenty of other cities are getting a piece of the action, too.

Where college-educated Americans are moving

New York City; Washington, D.C., and Dallas are the hottest destinations.

For years, Donald Trump has been obsessed with presidential power, revenge against his enemies — and winning the Nobel Peace Prize.

Why it matters: Now Trump's administration is aggressively pushing him for a Nobel — the obsession that has eluded him. That was a subtext to Friday's Oval Office blowup with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zoom in: Talk of the prize is increasingly shaping how administration officials talk about the president at a time when he's seeking to end the fighting in Ukraine and Gaza. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News in February that Trump deserves a Nobel for his work in trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war. "If it were fairly awarded, I think in a year, he should get it from what I've seen," Bessent said.

New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, Trump's nominee to be his United Nations ambassador, used her speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) last week to call for Trump to win the Nobel. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz did so as well.

"By the end of this all, we're going to have the Nobel Prize sitting next to the name of Donald J. Trump," Waltz said.

Reality check: Trump's ability to win a Nobel will hinge in no small part on whether he can end the fighting in Ukraine. And Friday's explosive meeting — which culminated in Trump kicking Zelensky out of the White House, and horrified the U.S.'s European allies — could throw a massive wrench into things.

Trump longs for the validation of a Nobel prize, but even before Friday's televised melee he doubted that the committee that awards it — which is appointed by Norway's parliament — would ever give him one.

The backstory: In his frustration, Trump has criticized the Nobel committee for awarding the prize to former President Obama. Just a few months into his presidency in 2009, Obama was honored for his push to curb nuclear weapons and improve relations with the Muslim world. 

Trump said in 2019 that he should get the prize "for a lot of things, if they gave it out fairly — which they don't. They gave one to Obama immediately upon his ascent to the presidency, and he had no idea why he got it.  ... That was the only thing I agreed with him on."

Trump has been nominated for a Nobel several times during his presidencies, including by Norwegian politician Christian Tybring-Gjedde and a Swedish political figure, Magnus Jacobsson, during his first term. But Trump came up empty-handed.

More recently, Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) nominated Trump last year for brokering the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. He didn't win.

During an Oval Office meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month, Trump was asked by a reporter whether he hopes to get a Nobel Peace Prize if he helps end the war in Gaza. 

"I deserve it," he said again, " but they would never give it to me."

State of play: This year Trump has been nominated for the prize once more. Anat Alon-Beck, an Israeli-born professor at the Case Western Reserve University School of Law, last month submitted a letter to the Nobel committee advocating for Trump.

Alon-Beck's nomination, filed just before the Jan. 31 deadline, argued that Trump should win a Nobel based on his early work toward securing a peace deal in the Middle East.

"By securing the release of hostages, standing firm against antisemitism, and fostering historic agreements that bring stability to the world's most volatile regions, [Trump] has once again demonstrated why he is a deserving recipient," Alon-Beck wrote.

Alon-Beck said in an interview that she hadn't been in contact with the White House about the two-page letter she sent to the Nobel committee.

A Ukrainian politician, Oleksandr Merezhko. also nominated Trump for the prize.

The White House didn't respond to requests for a comment. But Trump advisers and others close to his team believe his Nobel case would be boosted if he helps end the war in Gaza and gets a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel that also includes a breakthrough toward a Palestinian state. 

Trump has floated a controversial proposal to remove nearly 2 million Palestinians from war-torn Gaza and relocate them to "better housing" in Egypt or Jordan — neither of which seem inclined to go along that plan.

What they're saying: Critics of Trump's foreign policy say he doesn't deserve a Nobel because it's not clear he'll achieve lasting peace in the Middle East or between Ukraine and Russia.

Trump's apparent embrace of Russia at the expense of Ukraine and NATO also could weigh heavily on a Norwegian jury. 

Trump's deep obsession: Winning a Nobel Peace Prize

Trump's administration is aggressively pushing him for a Nobel prize, an obsession that has eluded him.

Axios

Saturday's top stories

Trump lumber tariff threat is latest headache for homebuilders

In photos: Ramadan kicks off in Gaza amid ceasefire deal

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo announces NYC mayor bid

Where college-educated Americans are moving

Trump's deep obsession: Winning a Nobel Peace Prize

Federal workers get another "what did you do" email, without Musk threat

"Three strikes": Inside the Trump-Vance fury with Zelensky

Trump — America's "first crypto president" — to host summit on the currency

Study zeroes in on AI's youngest users

MAGA world erupts over Andrew Tate release, Epstein stunt

Tracking Trump: Press pool takeover, Zelensky and the Musk effect

Zelensky says he doesn't think he did anything wrong after public spat with Trump