"Three strikes": Inside the Trump-Vance fury with Zelensky

To Trump's team, it was three strikes — and now officially out of favor — for Zelensky. In their eyes, Zelensky already had two strikes against him when he sat down with Trump and Vance.

• That was the backdrop for a conversation that would become perhaps the most epic televised foreign policy row in history — an argument that rattled Europe and vividly illustrated a sharp turn in U.S. foreign policy toward Russia.

It began with what Trump's team saw as Strike 3 against Zelensky: He disagreed publicly with Vance, who accused Zelensky of trying to "litigate" his case before the media.

• Vance said Zelensky didn't show enough thanks to the U.S. for funding Ukraine's defense — or to Trump for trying to bring peace.
• After a tense nine-minute exchange, it ended with Trump stopping the 50-minute meeting and essentially showing Zelensky the door.

Strike 2 came just before Friday's meeting, when Zelensky arrived at the White House without a suit or jacket, as requested. It was perceived by White House staffers as disrespectful.

• Strike 1, as first reported by Axios, came Feb. 15, when Zelensky publicly trashed a proposed mineral rights deal with Ukraine that he privately had discussed the day before in Munich with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

• The plan Friday was for Zelensky to sign a new version of the deal as part of a plan to end the war. That didn't happen.

The big picture: At the heart of the discord is Trump's view of the conflict, which continues to challenge the United States' long-held alliances in Europe.

• Trump sees geopolitics in terms of negotiations between powerful countries and big personalities. Russian President Vladimir Putin is a coequal in this paradigm. Zelensky — the leader of a smaller country surviving thanks to American largesse — isn't.

Trump also approaches politics like a business deal or, as a former casino owner, as a type of poker. In one telling moment, he told Zelensky he had a bad hand without the U.S.

• "I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious," Zelensky said. Trump shot back: "You're playing cards. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people."
• Quick to temper and desiring of flattery, Trump demands a high degree of obeisance from supplicants. Zelensky didn't show that — and Vance was quick to try to put him in his place.

Trump's expectation of deference from Zelensky is particularly high because of the massive aid the U.S. has sent to Ukraine (an amount Trump inflates). The two have had a fraught relationship since 2019, when Trump was impeached for trying to leverage Zelensky for political gain against Joe Biden.

• Vance has long had antipathy for Zelensky and funding Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion. In his 2022 Senate race in Ohio, Vance ran on a platform of ending Ukraine aid.
• During the presidential election, Zelensky visited a Pennsylvania arms factory and signed missiles with President Biden. Vance cited that episode Friday, accusing Zelensky of "campaigning with the opposition."

Between the lines: Democrats and European allies, who were far more aligned with Biden than Trump, were aghast at the Oval Office spectacle and at how Trump seemed to be shrugging off Putin's aggression against Ukraine.

• But Trump's close Republican allies loved the tag-teaming against Zelensky. White House officials said a message was sent.
• Zelensky "has refused to accept that people are tired of funding this war, and that there is a new sheriff in town," a senior White House adviser said. "He did not come in with that understanding of reality."

What they're saying: Critics say Trump acted more like a crime figure than a president or law enforcement officer.

• "Trump runs the White House like a mob boss. He looks at Russia and China like they're other mob families; he sees Zelensky as a nobody," said Trump critic Lev Parnas, who was Trump's Ukraine fixer during the president's first term, spent time in prison afterward, then penned a tell-all book and a documentary.

• "He thinks [Zelensky] should just beg and then shut up," Parnas said.
• On Friday, "the wildcard was Vance," Parnas added. "I think [Zelensky] would've swallowed whatever Trump was gonna offer, but JD Vance set it off. ... He never liked Zelensky."

Vance advisers say he hadn't plotted to blow up the negotiations, though one privately acknowledged he's "prone to think Zelensky is a liar."

• The meeting was largely uneventful until Zelensky addressed Vance directly and asked how diplomacy would work with a lying killer like Putin.
• "No one expected Zelensky to walk in there and act like such a petulant child, constantly frowning and shaking his head and DJT and JD had had enough," one Republican close to the administration told Axios via text.
• "I'm not sure this is salvageable," the senior White House adviser summed up. "Three strikes and you're out."

Zoom in: Inside the White House, there was a feeling of unease among Trump advisers Friday when they saw Zelensky arrive without a business suit or a blazer. He was dressed instead in a three-button, skintight, long-sleeved black athletic shirt.

• "Wow look, you're all dressed up today," Trump said in a seemingly friendly way that advisers say masked annoyance.
• Brian Glenn, a conservative reporter and boyfriend of Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), seemed to voice the attitude of Trump's team in the Oval Office when he asked Zelensky, "Why don't you wear a suit? … Do you own a suit?" Vance laughed out loud.
• "I will wear a [suit] after this war will finish," Zelensky said. "Maybe something like yours. Maybe something better ... maybe something cheaper."

After Trump canceled a lunch and press conference that was planned after the Oval Office meeting, Zelensky left the White House.

• Later he posted on X, thanking "POTUS, Congress and the American people" for the visit.
• That was interpreted differently by members of the administration. Some thought he was tweaking Vance for having scolded Zelensky. Others thought Zelensky was bending a knee.

What we're watching: Whether Trump and Zelensky can get back to the negotiating table and arrive at a peace deal for Ukraine. If not, Friday's clash could go down in U.S. foreign policy history as even more significant than it already appears.