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National

U.S. officials say the Biden administration is "extremely concerned" about the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, but hopes to use growing Israeli military pressure on Hezbollah to get a diplomatic deal to return civilians to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border. 

Why it matters: Israel and the U.S. are both looking for ways to decouple Hezbollah from Hamas. Despite months of diplomatic efforts by the Biden administration, Hezbollah hasn't agreed to any deal that would stop the current fighting with Israel before there is a ceasefire in Gaza.     

On Saturday, concerns of war continued to grow as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed Hezbollah was preparing an imminent retaliation to the series of Israeli attacks in Lebanon last week. 

Driving the news: An Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday killed Hezbollah's top military commander Ibrahim Aqil and at least 15 other senior commanders, including those in charge of the elite Radwan force, according to both the IDF and Hezbollah.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health said 37 people were killed in the airstrike in a Beirut suburb, including three children and seven women.

The airstrike came after Israeli intelligence services remotely detonated pagers and Walkie-Talkies in attacks earlier in the week that killed dozens of people, including at least two children, and wounded thousands more. Many were members of Hezbollah's military units and institutions.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the attacks "an unprecedented and historic blow."

The latest: Israeli fighter jets conducted numerous airstrikes on Saturday, including against Hezbollah's medium-range rockets that the IDF claimed the militia was planning to launch imminently.

IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said 400 rocket launchers with thousands of launching barrels were attacked.

Hagari said Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant signed an order designating all areas from Haifa to the border with Lebanon under emergency ahead of possible attacks by Hezbollah.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Saturday said there is "a real and acute" danger of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon and that the U.S. is working on preventing that from happening.

Lebanese acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced on Saturday he is canceling his trip to the UN General Assembly in New York next week due to the tense situation.    

The big picture: Israeli officials said their increasing attacks against Hezbollah are not intended to lead to war but are an attempt to reach "de-escalation through escalation."

The officials said Israel believes putting more pressure on Hezbollah could push the militia to agree to a diplomatic deal that would return citizens to northern Israel and southern Lebanon irrespective of the deadlocked negotiations to establish a ceasefire in Gaza.

U.S. officials told Axios they recognize Israel's rational and agree with it, but stress this is an "extremely difficult calibration" that could easily go out of control and lead to an all-out war.

Behind the scenes: Sullivan, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Biden advisers Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein held several calls with their Israeli counterparts on Friday and Saturday.

"One of the key messages was that we want to keep a path open to a diplomatic resolution and therefore don't want the Israelis to take steps that will close such a path," a U.S. official said.

Between the lines: On the one hand, Biden administration officials said the Israeli killing of Aqil provided justice for his role in the bombing of the U.S. embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut 40 years ago.

"Any time a terrorist who has murdered Americans is brought to justice, we believe that that is a good outcome," Sullivan told reporters on Saturday. 

On the other hand, the U.S. is concerned the assassination and attacks put the Israel-Hezbollah conflict on a slippery slope that could lead to war.

The U.S. made clear to Israel that such a war wouldn't help Israel achieve its goal of returning tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to their homes on the border with Lebanon, U.S. officials said.

The officials admit they have limited influence on Israel's military decisions and therefore are focused on reaching an understanding with Israeli leaders about the "escalation dial." 

The Biden administration asked Israel to refrain from actions like a ground invasion or wide-ranging airstrikes in civilian areas that could escalate the conflict to a war and shut down diplomatic efforts, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

"We have disagreements with the Israelis on tactics and how you measure escalation risk," McGurk said on Friday. "It is a very concerning situation."

killed Hezbollah's top military commander

U.S. fears war in Lebanon but hopes Israeli attacks push Hezbollah to a deal

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Saturday said there is "a real and acute" danger of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon.

Smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike hit the Tyre, in southern Lebanon on September 19, 2024. (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike hit Tyre in southern Lebanon on Sept. 19, 2024. Photo: Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images

Axios Explains: Israel-Hamas war

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A line chart that illustrates the 10-year Treasury yield from January 3, 2000, to September 18, 2024. The yield peaked at 6.58% in 2000, declined to 0.52% in 2020, and is currently at 3.71%.

10-year Treasury yield

The most important interest rate in the country isn't the fed funds rate, which was lowered Wednesday to below 5%, but rather the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which rose Wednesday to 3.71% from a closing level of 3.65% on Tuesday.

Why it matters: Most corporations and individuals don't borrow money overnight. When they borrow for long-term investments, including mortgages, the cost of money is priced off the 10-year Treasury yield. 

The big picture: The 10-year yield has been below the fed funds rate for almost two years — a sign the markets expected high interest rates to be a reasonably temporary phenomenon. 

That means future rate cuts have always been priced in — and that mortgage rates won't necessarily fall further just because the Fed is now in cutting mode. 

After all, mortgage rates are already down 1.6 points from their October high. By contrast, the 10-year yield is down only 1.3 points since then. 

The bottom line: The 10-year yield looks high by the standards of what has been normal since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. But if the new normal looks more like the pre-crisis normal, then long-term interest rates are already pretty low — and might not go much lower.

The most important interest rate

For long-term investments, the cost of money is priced off the 10-year Treasury yield.

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The Arizona Supreme Court decided on Friday to allow nearly 100,000 people who registered to vote over the last 20 years to keep the right to vote a full ballot after a lawsuit stemming from a glitch raised concerns. 

Why it matters: Officials say most of the swing state voters whose rights were in question are likely U.S. citizens but failed to meet the state's proof-of-citizenship requirement enacted by a law passed in 2004.

Zoom in: Arizona voters without proof of citizenship are only allowed to vote in federal races, Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, whose office launched the suit on Tuesday, says on X.

"Unfortunately, the way the system was designed allowed for one group of voters through the cracks," he says.

Case in point: When drivers licensed before 1996 lost their licenses and got duplicates later, the system updated the issuance date. 

This led to false confirmations of citizenship documentation, Richer says, later praising the court decision.

What they're saying: Secretary of State Adrian Fontes called the decision "a significant victory for those whose fundamental right to vote was under scrutiny."

"The court faced a stark choice: to allow voters to participate in just a few federal races on a limited ballot, or to make their voices heard across hundreds of decisions on a full ballot that includes a variety of local and state offices," Fontes said, adding his appreciation. 

Proof of citizenship snafu could bar nearly 100K Arizonans from voting in non-federal races

Experts expect Arizona to again be a battleground over election results in 2024

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Arizona Supreme Court OKs nearly 100K people to vote after citizenship proof glitch

Officials say most of the swing state voters whose rights were in question are likely U.S. citizens.

Illustration of a hand holding a ballot about to vote surrounded by an outline of the state of Arizona on a striped background that fades from red to purple. 

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Elections 2024

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

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Vice President Kamala Harris's presidential campaign alone has raised more than the entire Republican operation in the month of August.

Why it matters: It's a sign that former President Trump's fundraising has stalled in recent months and that Harris has managed to unleash the vaunted Democratic grassroots fundraising.

Coordinated efforts in August totaled $361 million for Harris and her committees and $130 million for Trump's campaign and associated committees, per Federal Election Commission reports.

By the numbers: The Harris campaign raised nearly $190 million in August. That's more than the $130 million that the Trump campaign, RNC and other supporting committees coordinated effort raised in August.

 The Trump campaign disclosed late Friday that it raised $44.5 million in August, with ~$135 million cash on hand.

Zoom out: It's caused panic in GOP circles Saturday morning as Republicans come to terms with the reality that Trump essentially received no fundraising boost after the presidential debate, which was viewed by 67 million people.

The bottom line: With less than 45 days until the election, Trump is unlikely to close the fundraising gap against Harris.

Go deeper: Harris' $47 million Trump debate bump

Harris fundraising far outpacing Trump's

August numbers totaled $361 million for Harris and $130 million for Trump, including their committees.

Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands before the presidential debate 

Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands before the presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pa., on Sept. 10, 2024. Photo: Saul Loeb /AFP via Getty Images 

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

For more than a decade, North Carolina has been plagued by a stream of jaw-dropping political scandals unrivaled by virtually any other state in the country.

Why it matters: Even in an era of sex scandals, real and imagined ballot fraud and fierce partisan feuds, North Carolinians couldn't script a more outlandish news cycle than the one delivered this week by Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Trump-backed GOP nominee for governor.

Driving the news: A CNN investigation found that Robinson called himself a "black NAZI" on an online porn forum, where he also defended slavery, bragged about "peeping" on women showering, and posted extremely graphic content from 2008 to 2012.

Even before the new revelations about his online behavior, Robinson had a history of deeply controversial comments — including quoting Adolf Hitler, ridiculing school-shooting survivors and endorsing political violence.

Democrats view Robinson as so extreme that North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper withdrew from consideration as Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate in part because Robinson would become acting governor each time Cooper left the state.

The big picture: North Carolina's modern streak of political sex scandals began with former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), the 2008 presidential candidate who impregnated his mistress — then tried to cover it up.

In 2011, Edwards was indicted for allegedly using campaign funds to conceal the affair, but he eventually walked free after a mistrial.

In 2020, Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly lost his race for a U.S. Senate seat after admitting to an affair in the final weeks before the election — potentially costing Democrats a larger majority and downsizing President Biden's ambitious agenda.

In 2022, former Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) lost his primary after infuriating his GOP colleagues by making wild claims about cocaine-fueled orgies and "sexual perversion" in Congress.

Yes, but: It's not just sex scandals that have vaulted North Carolina politicians into the national spotlight over the last few years.

North Carolina's descent into never-ending scandal

It's been an era of sex scandals, real and imagined ballot fraud, and fierce partisan feuds.

Axios

Saturday's top stories

U.S. fears war in Lebanon but hopes Israeli attacks push Hezbollah to a deal

The most important interest rate

Arizona Supreme Court OKs nearly 100K people to vote after citizenship proof glitch

Harris fundraising far outpacing Trump's

North Carolina's descent into never-ending scandal

Harris' conservative culture play

More couples are marrying on Sept. 21

Plumped-up pumpkins vie to be world heavyweight champ

Why Trump's vow to lower grocery costs will backfire, economists warn

Local Teamsters back Harris despite national union's refusal