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National

Michigan activists want to shock and shame the Biden campaign in the state's Tuesday primary to take seriously the risk of losing the support of Muslim and Arab Americans. 

Why it matters: The war in Gaza has hurt President Biden's support among the same voters who were crucial to him flipping the state from Trump in 2020.

Activists want voters to back "uncommitted" instead of Biden.

Biden has lost the community "at a fundamental level," says Abbas Alawieh, a spokesperson for the Listen to Michigan campaign, during Israel's military strikes — described as the most destructive in recent history. 

"[T]his is a warning to Biden like, get your s--t together or you're going to lose," said Adam Abusalah, a Dearborn native who worked on Biden's 2020 campaign and is also pushing an "uncommitted" vote.

Local Arab American leaders refused to meet with a top Biden campaign adviser last month. 

Between the lines: Biden was targeted in New Hampshire's primary with a "ceasefire" write-in campaign that mostly went nowhere.

Michigan has significant Muslim and Arab American populations and boasts high-profile Squad member Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who is pushing for "uncommitted."

Zoom in: "There are a lot of intense feelings here in Michigan right now," Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) told Axios.

"I don't think we needed the 'uncommitted' vote on Tuesday for the White House to understand that there are really just a lot of hurting people in Michigan."

One prominent Michigan Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Biden team has been "late" to respond to the backlash from Arab American and young voters.

The other side: "I don't think Joe Biden is going to be embarrassed on Tuesday," Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) told Axios.

Stevens has seen "lots of energy and enthusiasm" for Biden in her district and has "not seen any movement otherwise really penetrate."

"[H]e is working tirelessly to create a just, lasting peace in the Middle East," a Biden campaign spokesperson told NPR.

Ensuring Trump doesn't become president is greater than any single cause, local Democratic leader and Wayne County Commissioner Jonathan Kinloch tells Axios.

Zoom out: Biden is "making a mistake similar to the one George Bush did," Alawieh told Axios.

Michigan's growing Arab American population voted more Republican until the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq in the early 2000s.

Trump's campaign is courting these disillusioned voters, and met with local Republicans, including Arab Americans, after a rally earlier in February, the Detroit Free Press reported.

This year, some conservative leaders in the majority Muslim city of Hamtramck are again embracing Republican politics. The City Council last year banned the public display of the Pride flag.

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Arab Americans in Michigan could deliver Biden's first blow

A large number of Michigan Arab Americans say they're voting "uncommitted" on the primary ballot.

Photo illustration of President Biden collaged with Arab and Pro-Palestine protestors. 

Photo illustration: Allie Carl/Axios. Photo: Bloomberg, SOPA Images, Jeff Kowalsky via Getty Images

Biden administration

Elections 2024

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Sneak Peek

Axios Sneak Peek

Former President Trump faces a five-week slog through states where he'll need to pivot hard to win in November, even as there's major work to do in unifying his own party.

Why it matters: The primary's all but over. But unless former UN ambassador Nikki Haley drops out soon, Trump will roll through contested primaries in five states that could easily swing in November.

Michigan (Tuesday): Trump won by 10,700 votes in 2016, lost by 154,000 in 2020.

North Carolina (March 5): Trump won by 173,000 votes in 2016, won by 74,000 in 2020.

Georgia (March 12): Trump won by 211,000 votes in 2016, lost by 12,000 in 2020.

Arizona (March 19): Trump won by 91,000 votes in 2016, lost by 10,000 in 2020.

Wisconsin (April 2): Trump won by 23,000 votes in 2016, lost by 21,000 in 2020.

Zoom out: Trump faces profound demographic issues, as we told you in Axios AM. Just look at the exit polls from the South Carolina GOP primary.

35% said he wouldn't be fit for office if convicted of a crime. (ABC)

About a quarter of Trump's own voters think he's too extreme to win in November. (VoteCast)

About 40% of Nikki Haley supporters said their vote was motivated by opposition to Trump. (CNN)

The other side: "This is going to be a referendum against Joe Biden and his policies," a top Trump adviser told Axios' Mike Allen.

"As long as Trump can tap into voter disillusion about the economy, out-of-control immigration and more foreign entanglements, those are issues that affect people from all backgrounds."

What's next: After the Michigan primaries on Tuesday, the Democratic presidential campaign is off until Super Tuesday on March 5.

Republicans will vote in Idaho and Missouri on March 2, D.C. on March 3 and North Dakota on March 4.

Trump's next test: 5 swing states in 37 days

Even as there's major work to do in unifying his own party.

Trump on stage at his South Carolina victory party in Columbia. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

2024 presidential election

Donald Trump

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that 31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Russia began its invasion. 

The big picture: It's the first time Zelensky has publicly confirmed the number of Ukrainian military deaths since Russia started its full-scale invasion two years ago. 

What he's saying: "31,000 Ukrainian military personnel have been killed in this war, not 300,000, not 150,000, not whatever [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and his deceitful circle have been lying about," Zelensky said Sunday in Kyiv. 

"But nevertheless, each of these losses is a great sacrifice for us," he said. 

Zelensky would not disclose the number of Ukrainian military members who have so far been wounded.

"But I cannot say how many wounded we have, because Russia will know how many people have left the battlefield. I just cannot say," he said. 

Zelensky's figures stand in stark contrast to estimates from U.S. officials in August 2023.

At that time, the U.S. estimated a death toll of close to 70,000 Ukrainian troops, per the New York Times.  

The estimates also included between 100,000 and 120,000 Ukrainian servicemembers being wounded. 

Zoom out: Russia captured the Ukraine villages of Avdiivka earlier this month, something which both the White House and Zelensky tied to a shortage of ammunition. 

 Zelensky did not blame the U.S. for the shortage, though the White House cited "congressional inaction" as why Russia saw its "first notable gains in months" for the war.    

Billions of dollars in U.S. aid to Ukraine currently hang in the balance as Republicans demand funding for the U.S.-Mexico border be included with, or passed before, any additional foreign aid. 

Worth noting: Deepening the problem is the approaching partial government shutdown. Congress has until March 1 to pass a budget or stopgap spending bill separately from any other proposals.

If a bill isn't passed by March 8, a full government shutdown will go into effect.

Go deeper: Zelensky replaces Ukraine's top general in major shakeup

 Zelensky replaces Ukraine's top general in major shakeup

Zelensky: 31,000 Ukrainian troops killed since start of Russia's invasion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds a microphone while speaking

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a forum in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 25. Photo: Andrew Kravchenko/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ukraine

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Meet The Press-2024-02-25

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said he thinks President Biden is "doing everything he needs to do" to publicly demonstrate his command and ability to serve a second term.

Why it matters: Newsom's remarks come as voters have expressed concerns over Biden's ability to beat former President Trump in the general election — and as the 81-year-old president's mental fitness has been called into question in recent weeks.

What he's saying: "I mean, [Biden's] got an extraordinary record," Newsom said on NBC's "Meet the Press" in an interview that aired Sunday. 

"He's doing everything he needs to do to reconcile and wrestle some common sense as it relates to a bipartisan approach to address the issue of the border where the Republicans couldn't take 'yes' for an answer because they don't want to make that a political issue," Newsom said. 

Contrary to voters' concerns about Biden's age, Newsom said "it's because of his age that he's been so successful." 

Newsom also said he's "not worried" about Biden's ability to beat Trump — the GOP frontrunner who clinched the South Carolina primary on Saturday. 

"It's because of the wisdom and the character that's developed over years that we have the CHIPS and Science Act, the infrastructure bill, and the PACT Act, and the Safer Communities Act," Newsom said. 

Zoom out: The California Democrat, serving as one of Biden's top surrogates, has defended the president as he vies for another White House term. 

Newsom confirmed he has no plans to run for president in 2024, saying it's "all idle chatter."

"I think it's a damning conversation, frankly, the other side wants us to have," Newsom added. "I'm deeply mindful of the anger machine and all the entertainment industry out there on Fox and elsewhere. They love ginning this stuff up."

Go deeper: The diversity gap in Newsom's gubernatorial appointees

The diversity gap in Newsom's gubernatorial appointees

Newsom defends Biden, says "he's doing everything he needs to do"

Gov. Newsom said it's "because of [Biden's] age that he's been so successful," per an interview on NBC.

Gavin Newsom

Close-up image of California Gov. Gavin Newsom

This Week With George Stephanopoulos-2024-02-25

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) said she's skeptical Republicans will back a bill she introduced to safeguard IVF treatment nationwide, saying "it's been crickets since the Alabama ruling." 

Why it matters: The Alabama Supreme Court ruled earlier this month that frozen embryos created via IVF are children under state law. Some of the state's IVF clinics have already halted operations as a result.

In January, Duckworth, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) introduced the Access to Family Building Act to protect the right to access IVF nationally.

What she's saying: "Let's make it clear — Republicans will say whatever they need to say to try to cover themselves on this, but they've been clear," Duckworth said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday.

"Not a single Republican has reached out to me on the bill. I've introduced a bill, multiple times, now multiple Congresses — but frankly, let's see if they vote for it when we bring it to the floor," Duckworth added.

Duckworth skeptical Republicans will back her bill protecting IVF access

Duckworth and other lawmakers in January introduced the Access to Family Building Act to protect IVF access.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Arab Americans in Michigan could deliver Biden's first blow

Trump's next test: 5 swing states in 37 days

Zelensky: 31,000 Ukrainian troops killed since start of Russia's invasion

Newsom defends Biden, says "he's doing everything he needs to do"

Duckworth skeptical Republicans will back her bill protecting IVF access

Netanyahu says hostage deal will delay Rafah operation

Trump's demographic problem

Moguls cash in on record-high market

Honeycrisp apple prices fall as orchards finally catch up with demand

Immigrant influx is squeezing city budgets

Trump winning streak extends to South Carolina, Haley "not giving up"