Feb 25, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Trump's next test: 5 swing states in 37 days

Justin Green

This is Donald Trump — Trump on stage at his South Carolina victory party in Columbia. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Former President Trump faces a five-week slog through states where he'll need to pivot hard to win in November, even as there's major work to do in unifying his own party.

Why it matters: The primary's all but over. But unless former UN ambassador Nikki Haley drops out soon, Trump will roll through contested primaries in five states that could easily swing in November.

Michigan (Tuesday): Trump won by 10,700 votes in 2016, lost by 154,000 in 2020.
North Carolina (March 5): Trump won by 173,000 votes in 2016, won by 74,000 in 2020.
Georgia (March 12): Trump won by 211,000 votes in 2016, lost by 12,000 in 2020.
Arizona (March 19): Trump won by 91,000 votes in 2016, lost by 10,000 in 2020.
Wisconsin (April 2): Trump won by 23,000 votes in 2016, lost by 21,000 in 2020.

Zoom out: Trump faces profound demographic issues, as we told you in Axios AM. Just look at the exit polls from the South Carolina GOP primary.

35% said he wouldn't be fit for office if convicted of a crime. (ABC)
About a quarter of Trump's own voters think he's too extreme to win in November. (VoteCast)
About 40% of Nikki Haley supporters said their vote was motivated by opposition to Trump. (CNN)

The other side: "This is going to be a referendum against Joe Biden and his policies," a top Trump adviser told Axios' Mike Allen.

"As long as Trump can tap into voter disillusion about the economy, out-of-control immigration and more foreign entanglements, those are issues that affect people from all backgrounds."

What's next: After the Michigan primaries on Tuesday, the Democratic presidential campaign is off until Super Tuesday on March 5.

Republicans will vote in Idaho and Missouri on March 2, D.C. on March 3 and North Dakota on March 4.

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Trump's next test: 5 swing states in 37 days

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