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National

House progressives see a route to expanding their power over the next year, even though they're being accused of dragging down other Democrats by pushing the party's image too far left, Axios has learned.

Why it matters:  If Democrats lose their majority in the midterms, a strengthened left could emerge more influential in a diluted, disillusioned Democratic Party.

What we're watching: Tuesday's primaries in Texas will be a first big test of progressive's midterms strategy.

The Congressional Progressive Caucus' political action committee has endorsed two leading candidates in open primaries, Greg Casar in Austin and Jasmine Crockett in Dallas.

In the 28th Congressional District, which runs from San Antonio south to the U.S.-Mexico border, progressive Jessica Cisneros is mounting another primary challenge to centrist Rep. Henry Cuellar, whose house was recently raided by the FBI.

Cisneros came within four points in the 2020 primary.

The big picture: A wave of Democratic retirements has given progressives multiple openings to target seats for a shift left.

In New York, moderate Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) is running for governor and progressive state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi has announced a bid to succeed him.

In Pennsylvania, progressives including state Rep. Summer Lee are running to replace retiring Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.).

Progressives also are eyeing seats in North Carolina, California, Illinois, Maryland and Florida being vacated by non-CPC members, and plan to make more endorsements throughout the cycle, Axios is told.

By the numbers: The CPC has enjoyed explosive growth since Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) 2016 presidential primary bid reinvigorated the party's left flank.

The caucus has ballooned from 68 members after 2014 to nearly 100 now, growth that's largely been unaffected by the Democratic Party's fortunes.

When Democrats lost 13 House seats in 2014, the CPC's numbers stayed unchanged. The same happened in 2020, when Democrats again lost 13 seats.

That's because Democrats in districts most likely to flip to Republicans tend to be more conservative, while progressives often hold safer seats.

Don't forget: Progressives last year pumped the brakes on portions of President Biden's agenda in a quest for their whole wish list.

The CPC used its strength and unity to repeatedly delay a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill until it secured assurances on a larger social spending bill.

But if that episode showcased progressives' newfound strength, it also revealed their limits: Biden eventually persuaded them to pass infrastructure funding, while the social spending bill appears dead.

Progressives also point to getting provisions in the American Rescue Plan and the China competitiveness bill, as well as pressuring the Biden administration on evictions and placing allies in administration jobs.

What they're saying: "I think that there are really good opportunities. ... I do think we stand to increase the number of progressives," CPC Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told Axios during an interview.

Jayapal also isn't ruling out leveraging her faction's growing strength to launch a rumored leadership bid.

"I've thought about it, but ... it's so fluid," she said. "I've had conversations about it, and people have talked to me about it. ...Certainly, if there are skills I can bring, I would do it. But we don't know what it even looks like."

Reality check: While progressives boast that legislative priorities such as the Build Back Better Agenda and a $15 minimum wage passed the House, those bills keep stalling in the Senate.

CPC is seeking to exert pressure on the White House by releasing a list of executive actions it wants Biden to implement.

If Republicans retake Congress, they would blunt progressive gains.

How the left could win even if Democrats lose

If Dems lose their majority in the midterms, a strengthened left could emerge more influential in a diluted Democratic Party.

Progressives

Politics & Policy

Maxar satellite imagery showed a 3.25-mile long convoy of Russian ground forces 40 miles northeast of Kyiv moving toward the capital city on Sunday.

Why it matters: According to Maxar, the convoy contains hundreds of armored vehicles including tanks and self-propelled artillery, fuel and logistics. U.S. and Ukrainian officials believe Russia's primary military objective is to encircle Kyiv and topple the government.

Satellite images: Large Russian convoy moving toward Kyiv

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced Sunday that the European Union will ban all "Russian-owned, Russian registered or Russian-controlled aircraft," including the private jets of oligarchs, from its airspace, as well as Russian state media. 

Why it matters: The announcement comes on the fourth day of Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and builds off of efforts over the past several days by individual European countries to take similar measures.

Details: "They won’t be able to land in, take off or overfly the territory of the EU,   including the private jets of oligarchs," von der Leyen said of Russian aircraft.

"The state-owned Russia Today and Sputnik, and their subsidiaries, will no longer be able to spread their lies to justify Putin’s war," she added. "We are developing tools to ban their toxic and harmful disinformation in Europe."

The EU will also introduce sanctions against the regime of Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has allowed Russia to use its territory to launch attacks against Ukraine.

"We will introduce restrictive measures against their most important sectors," von der Leyen said, explaining this would affect their exports of mineral fuels, tobacco, wood and steel, among others.

Belarusians "helping the Russian war effort" will also be sanctioned, she noted.

Of note: "For the first time ever, the European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack. This is a watershed moment," von der Leyen added.

"We're strengthening once more our sanctions against the Kremlin and its collaborator, Lukashenko's regime."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy's "leadership and his bravery and the resilience of the Ukrainian people are outstanding and impressive. They are an inspiration for all of us."

EU bans Russian aircraft, state media in sweeping new sanctions

"They won’t be able to land in, take off or overfly the territory of the EU."

European Commission President von der Leyen

European Commission President  Ursula von der Leyen. Photo: Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

British oil company BP said Sunday it will exit from its 19.75% stake in Rosneft, the Russian oil giant with ties to the Kremlin, and that BP CEO Bernard Looney will immediately resign from Rosneft's board.

Driving the news: The British government had called for the move Friday, when it summoned Looney to a meeting with U.K. business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng and accused Rosneft of providing fuel to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army for the invasion, according to multiple reports. 

Why it matters: BP's step and the news about Germany’s gas posture Sunday together show how the crisis is beginning to show signs that it could seismically reshape the West’s energy relationship with Russia, writes Axios' Ben Geman.

What they're saying: “Like so many, I have been deeply shocked and saddened by the situation unfolding in Ukraine and my heart goes out to everyone affected. It has caused us to fundamentally rethink bp’s position with Rosneft," Looney wrote in a statement.

"I am convinced that the decisions we have taken as a board are not only the right thing to do, but are also in the long-term interests of bp. Our immediate priority is caring for our great people in the region and we will do our utmost to support them. We are also looking at how bp can support the wider humanitarian effort.”

“Russia’s attack on Ukraine is an act of aggression which is having tragic consequences across the region. bp has operated in Russia for over 30 years, working with brilliant Russian colleagues. However, this military action represents a fundamental change. It has led the bp board to conclude, after a thorough process, that our involvement with Rosneft, a state-owned enterprise, simply cannot continue. 

We can no longer support bp representatives holding a role on the Rosneft board. The Rosneft holding is no longer aligned with bp’s business and strategy and it is now the board’s decision to exit bp’s shareholding in Rosneft. The bp board believes these decisions are in the best long-term interests of all our shareholders.” 

Update: It remains unclear how BP plans to exit its Roseneft position. Options could include selling its shares on the open market, selling them to specific buyers via private placements or possibly surrendering the shares to Roseneft itself.

A BP spokesperson tells Axios: "We have taken the decision to exit and have announced it. We can’t yet say how we deliver this."

BP will divest stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft

BP CEO Bernard Looney will immediately resign from Rosneft's board.

Oil companies

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

Axios AM

Russian President Vladimir Putin is doing in days what decades of American prodding and pressure couldn't: Getting Germany and other European nations to unite, expand defense spending and strategic thinking, and do more to protect themselves and others.

Why it matters: Putin calculated a divided America and Europe would make it hard to punish him for invading Ukraine. Instead, he’s spawned a new coalition of the willing that spreads from Europe, to U.S. companies, to Russians in the streets.

The latest: Putin on Sunday ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces to high alert, citing sanctions and "aggressive statements" by Western countries, AP reports.

Putin said in televised comments: "Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly actions against our country in the economic sphere, but top officials from leading NATO members made aggressive statements regarding our country."

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that a Ukrainian delegation would meet with a Russian delegation "without preconditions" on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border."

Zelensky said on Telegram following a conversation with Belarusian President  Aleksandr Lukashenko: "Lukashenko has taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missiles stationed on Belarusian territory remain on the ground during the Ukrainian delegation's travel, talks and return."

The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, hinted Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union" that Russia could face accusations of war crimes at The Hague. (Watch the video.)

Zoom out: Under public pressure from Zelensky, European countries one by one dropped their objections to limiting Russia's access to the SWIFT financial transactions system. The U.S. joined Saturday.

Suddenly, almost everything is on the table.

Zoom in: The U.S. has been pushing Germany for years to spend 2% of its GDP on defense to no avail. But in a speech Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said there was now a "new reality."

"The 24th February marks a turning point in the history of our continent," Scholz said, pointing to Thursday's invasion. 

Not only will Germany hit the 2% threshold, Scholz proposed enshrining that commitment in the constitution.

In other dramatic reversals in the past week, Scholz suspended the Nord Stream 2 Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline and announced that Germany would begin arming Ukraine.

The bottom line: Close observers of German politics said they've never seen so many doctrines of German foreign policy dismantled so quickly. 

World unites against Putin

Putin had calculated a divided America and Europe would make it hard to punish him for invading Ukraine.

About 100,000 protesters turn out in Berlin on Feb. 27 to protest Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and show solidarity with the Ukrainian people. Photo: Markus Schreiber/Associated Press

Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised statement on Sunday that he was ordering Russia's nuclear deterrent forces on alert, as he continues his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Driving the news: Speaking alongside his defense minister and military chief of staff, Putin said recent sanctions and "aggressive statements" from NATO countries had led him to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty."

This is the second time Putin has alluded to Russia's nuclear arsenal while effectively warning the West to back off. 

In a statement at the onset of the invasion, Putin said anyone who tried to "hinder us" would face "such consequences that you have never encountered in your history."

Fear of a standoff between nuclear powers is a large part of the reason the U.S. and its NATO allies have been so adamant that they will not send troops to Ukraine.

The latest: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that a Ukrainian delegation would meet with a Russian delegation for peace talks "without preconditions" on the border between Ukraine and Belarus.

State of play: U.S. and Ukrainian officials say Russia's invasion is not going to plan due to stronger-than-expected Ukrainian resistance. 

The Kremlin and state media continue to tell Russians that no "war" or "invasion" is taking place, but instead states there's a limited defensive operation in eastern Ukraine. 

The large protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg, despite the threat of mass arrests, indicate that many Russians aren't buying it.

What to watch: Having already threatened any independent publications that report on Russian casualties or aggression with censorship, the government is preparing to crack down harder on its citizens.

The Kremlin today announced that "the provision of any assistance to a foreign state" during the "military operation" would be considered treason, carrying a penalty of up to 20 years in prison.

Go deeper: Sanctions push Russia closer to China

Putin orders nuclear deterrent forces on alert

He cited the sanctions and "aggressive actions" from Western countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Alexei Nikolsky/TASS via Getty Images

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Social media platforms are beginning to crack down on Russian state media in response to the Kremlin's efforts to tighten controls around internet communications.

Why it matters: Tech giants that provide services around the world prefer not to take sides in conflicts where they operate in both combatants' territory, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine is making that stance tough to maintain.

Driving the news: Google said late Saturday it is pausing monetization of Russian state-funded media across its platforms, hours after its subsidiary YouTube announced a similar measure, citing "extraordinary circumstances in Ukraine."

A YouTube spokesperson noted it will also be "significantly limiting recommendations to these channels."

Facebook parent Meta on Friday said it would also prohibit Russian state media "from running ads or monetizing on our platform anywhere in the world," per a tweet from its head of security policy, Nathaniel Gleicher.

Twitter also said Friday it would temporarily pause advertisements in Ukraine and Russia "to ensure critical public safety information is elevated and ads don’t detract from it."

State of play: Social networks have for many months labeled accounts for outlets such as RT and Sputnik as Russian state media. Russia is beginning to push back on efforts to fact-check content from those accounts.  

Twitter has been restricted in Russia, as of Saturday morning, according to data forensics from internet monitoring group NetBlocks.

Internet becomes battleground in Russia's Ukraine invasion

Social media services are caught in their own escalating conflict with the Kremlin about control over content.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

How the left could win even if Democrats lose

Satellite images: Large Russian convoy moving toward Kyiv

EU bans Russian aircraft, state media in sweeping new sanctions

BP will divest stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft

World unites against Putin

Putin orders nuclear deterrent forces on alert

Internet becomes battleground in Russia's Ukraine invasion

Israel offers to mediate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine

Western allies agree to expel some Russian banks from SWIFT payments system

"Signs of genocide": Zelensky calls on international court to investigate Russia

Western sanctions tie Russia even tighter to China

In photos: Ukrainian forces fight Russian advance on Kyiv