National

The World Chess Championship between Norway's Magnus Carlsen and Russia's Ian Nepomniachtchi began on Friday, 1,094 days after Carlsen won his fourth consecutive title. 

Why it matters: During the long, COVID-fueled layoff, chess entered a new era, and with the championship finally here, the age-old game is ready for its close-up.

By the numbers: When the world shut down in March 2020, countless activities exploded in popularity, but few experienced bigger booms than chess.

Chess.com, the leading online platform, had about 30 million members when the pandemic began. By February 2021, it had 57 million. Today? Nearly 76 million.

Sales increased, too, bolstered by Netflix's mega-hit, "The Queen's Gambit." In the five weeks after its October 2020 release, sales of chess sets (87%) and books (603%) skyrocketed in the U.S.

The big picture: Most booms died down as the world opened back up, but chess has sustained its momentum by evolving in real time.

Chess pros like five-time U.S. champion Hikaru Nakamura began streaming games on Twitch in March. By June, he had 400,000 followers; now he has 1.3 million.

Non-chess Twitch streamers also began playing, turning chess into an esport and introducing millions more to the game.

Carlsen himself put on a virtual tournament in April 2020 that featured more exciting, rapid- or blitz-style games, garnering 2.7 million hours of viewership across two weeks.

Between the lines: The title match — a best-of-14 duel held at Dubai's Expo 2020 — is shaping up to be an all-timer between the potential GOAT and an intriguing challenger.

Carlsen, who plays by the book better than anyone, has held the title since 2013, when he took down then-five-time reigning champ Viswanathan Anand.

Nepomniachtchi plays a lightning quick, aggressive style that could spell trouble for the champ. "He's not afraid of Magnus," one grandmaster told FiveThirtyEight. "I don't think he's afraid of anybody."

How to watch: Follow along on NBCSN, which is airing an hour of coverage each night as it capitalizes on the game's newfound popularity.

Editor's note: This story was originally published on Nov. 23.

The potential GOAT of chess faces intriguing challenger

Norway's Magnus Carlsen is set to face Russia's Ian Nepomniachtchi for the world championship.

Illustration of a chess board featuring two chess pieces with a start sign between them

Sports

Vitals

Axios Vitals

As vaccine makers pursue the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines, some are working to develop products that wouldn't require a shot.

Why it matters: Delivering a vaccine through a pill or a nasal spray could make them much easier to administer, especially in places where distribution is challenging — or even for people who just don't like needles.

Driving the news: San Francisco-based biotech Vaxart is working on a COVID vaccine that would be delivered in an oral tablet. 

India's Bharat Biotech advanced its nasal COVID-19 vaccine candidate into a phase 2 clinical trial earlier this fall.

What they're saying: Vaxart founder and chief scientific officer Sean Tucker told Axios he started the company because he found it difficult to get his flu shot every year. 

"I thought 'Hey, if someone mailed me a tablet in the mail every year, I would take that vaccine all the time,'" Tucker said.  

State of play: Tucker will present details of the oral vaccine program at the World Vaccine & Immunotherapy Congress West Coast 2021 next week. 

Vaxart began enrolling about 100 people in a Phase 2a clinical trial last month and expects to have a readout of that efficacy trial in the first quarter of 2022. 

Vaxart's vaccine showed promise in animal trials, the results of which were  published in early October.

What's next: Even if everything continues to go well, the earliest the company would be able to apply for an emergency use authorization from the FDA is still at least a year to 18 months away — but the world will still need COVID vaccines in a year to 18 months.

Editor's note: This story was originally published on Nov. 24.

COVID vaccines of the future might not be shots

Biotechs are working on forms of vaccines that might be delivered by intranasal spray or even by pill.

Illustration of a syringe made from pills. 

COVID-19

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

During his six years as governor, Sen. Joe Manchin developed a rough three-part test he's taken to Washington: Are proposed programs paid for? Do they have  bipartisan support? And do they solve a specific problem facing his constituents?

Why it matters: The West Virginia Democrat wields unparalleled power in a 50-50 Senate, but in many ways he still thinks of himself as a state executive with a practical streak — and that may spell trouble for President’s Biden’s $2 trillion social spending plan as it moves to consideration in the Senate.

Those survival instincts, honed in a culturally conservative state, put him at odds with the major elements of Biden’s Build Back Better agenda.

Manchin's focus on the bottom line — coupled with his instincts for what it takes to remain politically viable in a state President Trump won by 39 points — all but guarantee he'll trim the president's spending ambitions, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Manchin, 74, stands 6-foot-3 with a commanding presence. Married since 1967, he is a father of three; his son, Joe Manchin IV, carries on the family name.

Manchin served in both West Virginia's House and Senate before being elected secretary of state and then serving as governor from 2005 to 2010. He's since served in the U.S. Senate.

Manchin earned $491,000 last year from his stake in Enersystems, Inc., a coal brokerage business he founded.

His daughter Heather is a pharmaceutical executive. His and her work have fueled critics who suggest they're compromised by their energy and biotech connections.

Manchin stands to play an outsize role as the split-control Senate debates the BBB plan. He hasn't shied away from threatening to delay or block it despite Biden being a fellow Democrat. And Democrats can't afford to lose even one vote so long as Republicans stay unified against it.

Manchin has told colleagues he thinks extending the expanded child tax credit is too expensive; he’s also uncertain if middle-class families actually need it.

For a new entitlement program like paid family leave, he has a strong preference for a compromise that could garner Republican support.

On $550 billion in clean-energy tax incentives, the coal-state politician is unconvinced they'll accelerate the changes in the fossil-fuel industry that are already happening.

Between the lines: Manchin may end up supporting a package in the $1.75 trillion range this year, Axios is told, but he’s more inclined to wait and watch how inflation plays out at home and across the country.

Given the number of differences he has with the House version of the bill, he sees 2022 as a much more likely timeframe, the people familiar with his thinking say.

His acid statement Monday on Biden’s decision to tap the strategic petroleum reserve — calling in a “an important policy Band-Aid” — was filled with long-simmering frustrations, and indicates he's far from a final deal.

“Historic inflation taxes and the lack of a comprehensive all-of-the-above energy policy pose a clear and present threat to American's economic and energy security that can no longer be ignored,” he said.

The big picture: Manchin, like Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), has earned the enmity of Democratic activists.

They've kayaked to his luxury houseboat (“Almost Heaven”) and surrounded his Maserati Levante to demand he adopt more progressive positions, especially on climate change.

Manchin shows little sign of backing down, however. High-profile fights with progressives help burnish his centrist credentials in West Virginia, where 74% of voters want him to oppose Biden’s plan, according to a recent survey.

He also has an overall job approval rating of 60%, compared with Biden’s 32%.

Manchin’s next blow to liberals

The former governor is applying strict financial tests to President's Build Back Better plan.

Illustration of Manchin between two one hundred dollar bills

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photo: Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Infrastructure

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Data: Axios survey; Note: 1,834 readers of Axios Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, D.C., Northwest Arkansas, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay were surveyed Nov. 19-23, 2021; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios; Illustrations: Aïda Amer/Axios

Axios Local asked readers across the country to weigh in on one of the most polarizing holiday debates: How early is too early to put up your tree?

55% of readers said the appropriate time to put up a tree is in November, after Thanksgiving. Another 17% voted for early December, and 20% were on board earlier this month.

The Grinch must have voted a couple of times in our poll: 2% of readers said a tree is only acceptable after Dec. 20.

Reader survey: You can put up your Christmas tree now

Christmas

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

Americans are itching to get back into their holiday traditions this year — including the traditional post-Thanksgiving shopping blitz.

Why it matters: Black Friday and Cyber Monday aren't the seismic economic and cultural events they used to be, and supply-chain issues have put a damper on things this year, but retailers expect shoppers to come back after a year of isolation — and to spend big.

The feeling of wanting to make up for last year is “an important motivator right now,” Katherine Cullen, a senior director at the National Retail Federation, tells Axios. 

By the numbers: About 158 million people are expected to shop in stores or online between now and the end of the day Monday, according to an NRF survey conducted earlier this month.

That's roughly 2 million more people than partook in post-Thanksgiving shopping last year, but 7 million lower than the same weekend in 2019.

Yes, but: Retailers still expect a big boost in overall sales, because more people plan to spend more.

In a separate study from the NPD Group, 34% of shoppers say they plan to spend more and to buy more gifts because of family and social get togethers.

The big picture: Black Friday lost its literal meaning years ago as sales days multiplied earlier in the year. 

Holiday shopping started especially early this year as stores and brands warned people to get ahead of any inventory issues caused by supply chain delays.

Major retailers, including Amazon, Target, Walmart and Best Buy, also started running Black Friday promotions and price pledges as early as October.

What to watch: Of those planning to shop tomorrow, 64% (69.1 million) say they are likely to go into a store, up from 51% last year, according to the NRF.

That lines up with the NPD Group's findings: Nearly six out of ten people say they feel comfortable shopping in person following wider distribution of vaccines.

Post-Thanksgiving shopping looks to make up for lost time

Black Friday this year is about making up for lost time.

Illustration of a hand holding a bag with a November 2021 calendar on it

Retail

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Friday's top stories

The potential GOAT of chess faces intriguing challenger

COVID vaccines of the future might not be shots

Manchin’s next blow to liberals

Reader survey: You can put up your Christmas tree now

Post-Thanksgiving shopping looks to make up for lost time