National

Americans are itching to get back into their holiday traditions this year — including the traditional post-Thanksgiving shopping blitz.

Why it matters: Black Friday and Cyber Monday aren't the seismic economic and cultural events they used to be, and supply-chain issues have put a damper on things this year, but retailers expect shoppers to come back after a year of isolation — and to spend big.

The feeling of wanting to make up for last year is “an important motivator right now,” Katherine Cullen, a senior director at the National Retail Federation, tells Axios. 

By the numbers: About 158 million people are expected to shop in stores or online between now and the end of the day Monday, according to an NRF survey conducted earlier this month.

That's roughly 2 million more people than partook in post-Thanksgiving shopping last year, but 7 million lower than the same weekend in 2019.

Yes, but: Retailers still expect a big boost in overall sales, because more people plan to spend more.

In a separate study from the NPD Group, 34% of shoppers say they plan to spend more and to buy more gifts because of family and social get togethers.

The big picture: Black Friday lost its literal meaning years ago as sales days multiplied earlier in the year. 

Holiday shopping started especially early this year as stores and brands warned people to get ahead of any inventory issues caused by supply chain delays.

Major retailers, including Amazon, Target, Walmart and Best Buy, also started running Black Friday promotions and price pledges as early as October.

What to watch: Of those planning to shop tomorrow, 64% (69.1 million) say they are likely to go into a store, up from 51% last year, according to the NRF.

That lines up with the NPD Group's findings: Nearly six out of ten people say they feel comfortable shopping in person following wider distribution of vaccines.

Post-Thanksgiving shopping looks to make up for lost time

Black Friday this year is about making up for lost time.

Illustration of a hand holding a bag with a November 2021 calendar on it

Retail

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Countries where Americans are currently held hostage or wrongfully detained

Reproduced from The James W. Foley Legacy Foundation; Chart: Axios Visuals

Relatives of American hostages and political prisoners held overseas are increasingly impatient for a meeting with President Biden.

Driving the news: Last week's release of a U.S. journalist held in Myanmar has elevated some expectations. So, too, did four years of Donald Trump's unusually public enthusiasm for and prioritization of hostage negotiations — with some notable successes. 

The Myanmar junta's release of Danny Fenster was secured by former UN ambassador and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who runs a non-profit that has played an outsized role in private hostage negotiations.

"Sometimes it takes an unconventional approach, and it can't be the government," Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs (SPEHA), said at a press conference celebrating Fenster's homecoming.

Fenster's release came after an Oct. 25 open letter in which more than two dozen families called on the Biden administration to do more to secure the release of their loved ones. They expressed frustration that they had not been able to meet with Biden or his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan.

Last week, Trevor Reed, a former U.S. Marine who has been jailed in Russia since August 2019, released a letter detailing his poor prison conditions. A family spokesman urged the Biden administration to make a deal with Russia to bring him home.

And Els Woodke — the wife of American aid worker Jeff Woodke, who was taken hostage by jihadists in Niger in 2016 — called on Secretary of State Antony Blinken to "honor the promise" he made to her that he would "not take any options off the table" in Jeff's case.

Why it matters: Hostage crises are among the most emotionally excruciating issues any president deals with. Every administration must strike a balance between prioritizing the freedom of detainees, easing the suffering of families, and managing thorny bilateral issues with foreign governments.

Behind the scenes: In half a century in politics, Biden has long worn his empathy on his sleeve. Multiple hostage advocates told Axios they believe the president's key advisers are deliberately shielding him from the personal agony of these stories to minimize the potential for emotional decision-making.

They see Sullivan, a Yale and Oxford graduate with a reputation as a highly skilled foreign policy strategist, as their biggest obstacle to a personal audience with Biden. Some told Axios they believe Sullivan views most hostage cases as unsolvable.

A senior Biden administration official told Axios that while the government does view these cases as difficult, Sullivan treats them with the highest priority and consistently raises them in conversations with foreign counterparts.

The official pointed to comments from a White House press briefing on Oct. 26, where Sullivan said he had been personally briefing Biden every day on the 16 U.S. missionaries kidnapped in Haiti. Two have since been freed.

On the question of why Biden hasn't met with any families, the official said the NSC views "recurring" and "sustainable" engagements with the families as the best long-term approach.

How it works: The SPEHA office was created by the Obama administration in 2015 to break hostage advocacy out of the lengthy list of bilateral issues the U.S. must address with unfriendly governments like Russia or Venezuela.

Biden asked Carstens, a Trump appointee who is widely respected by families and advocates, to continue serving when he took office.

Zoom in: Trevor Reed's parents say they have weekly engagements with Carstens and the State Department.

Reed's father, Joey, told Axios that Blinken held a virtual meeting with dozens of hostage families six days after his confirmation in February: "He stayed on the phone until everyone had gotten to ask questions or make statements about their loved ones, and he seemed extremely, very sincere."

Joey Reed also told Axios he was grateful that Biden raised his son's case when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. But demands for his release have been rebuffed, and the family has been unable to speak with Trevor since he was transferred to a labor camp in August.

The other side: Trump — for better or for worse — relished the idea of a deal-making role for himself and embraced the optics of a high-profile release, like American pastor Andrew Brunson, who was freed from Turkey in 2018.

"If I was a single-issue hostage voter and I didn't care about anything else — 150% I'm voting for Trump," said one advocate, who described themselves as a "card-carrying Democrat."

Yes, but: Both administrations have at times struck deals at the expense of Americans held abroad, demonstrating how fraught the issue can be in the context of broader U.S. foreign policy.

Trump and Biden each agreed to withdraw from Afghanistan without bringing home Mark Frerichs, the only American believed to be held captive by the Taliban.

Hostage families' mission to meet the president

They want the Biden administration to do more to secure the release of their loved ones.

Joe Biden

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Pharmacies and insurers are increasingly competing to directly hire doctors and nurse practitioners as they move deeper into primary health care delivery. 

Driving the news: The latest example is CVS Health's latest plan to reduce its retail locations as it pours more resources into its digital health delivery and health hub locations. 

Why it matters: Primary care is the starting point for all other points of health care. Companies that own more of those interactions are offering convenience to consumers, while also standing to make more money.

The big picture: CVS said earlier this month that it needs to hire doctors to fulfill its vision of becoming a one-stop shop for health care services.

Walgreens Boots Alliance also said recently it's investing billions into new clinics.

Two major health insurers, UnitedHealth Group and Humana, have increasingly purchased physician offices over the past few years.

And even genetic testing firm 23andMe is getting into the mix with its acquisition of Lemonaid Health, a virtual primary care company. 

The state of play: A vast majority of family medicine physicians still work in practices that are owned by a hospital or themselves. 

But the pandemic prompted people to use non-traditional forms of care, including retail clinics and virtual services, which has spurred companies like CVS and Walgreens to have doctors in those settings.

What they're saying: COVID-19 vaccines and tests had a "halo effect" on retail sales at Walgreens, CEO Roz Brewer told CNBC.

"Primary care is a small component of overall medical costs ... but it wields significant influence on the total medical cost picture," CVS CEO Karen Lynch said on the company's last earnings call.

Lynch also added the company, which owns health insurer Aetna, is steering Aetna members toward CVS' clinics.

The bottom line: The gold rush for doctors and advanced clinicians is about meeting patients where they are in an attempt to capture more consumer health care and retail dollars.

Doctors are becoming a hot commodity

Pharmacies and insurers are increasingly competing to directly hire doctors and nurse practitioners as they move deeper into primary health care delivery.

Illustration of a stethoscope with a high price tag

COVID-19

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Countries and governments invited to the 2021 Summit for Democracy

Taiwan is among the 110 delegations invited to President Biden's "Summit for Democracy" next month, according to a list released by the State Department on Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Taiwan's inclusion is sure to infuriate the Chinese government, which views the self-governing island as a breakaway territory and opposes any attempts to legitimize it on the international stage.

Biden has repeatedly expressed his ironclad commitment to helping Taiwan defend itself from a potential Chinese invasion.

He has at times gone further than the official U.S. government position on a potential war over Taiwan, only to have the White House press office clarify that the policy has not changed.

The big picture: The invitation list for Biden's summit, which will be held Dec. 9-10, underscores the messy nature of 21st-century democracy and U.S. relations with certain allies and partners.

Hungary, whose far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is a staunch proponent of "illiberal democracy," is the only member of the European Union not invited to the summit.

NATO ally Turkey was also not invited, amid President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's increasingly authoritarian antics and drift toward Russia. 

The Biden administration did, however, invite Poland, India and the Philippines, which have also experienced democratic backsliding over the past several years.

Details: The summit is expected to focus on three principle themes — "defending against authoritarianism, fighting corruption, and promoting respect for human rights," according to the State Department.

In addition to world leaders, Biden will convene members of civil society and the private sector for an array of events focused on "designing concrete commitments and deliverables for the summit."

In approximately one year, Biden will host a second summit — this time in-person — to "take stock of the progress made and forge a common path ahead."

Axios

Thursday's top stories

Post-Thanksgiving shopping looks to make up for lost time

Hostage families' mission to meet the president

Doctors are becoming a hot commodity

U.S. unveils invitation list for Biden's "Summit for Democracy"