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National

President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to three sources familiar with his private comments. That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

The latest: Speaking to reporters on Sunday evening, Trump denied that he would declare victory prematurely, before adding, "I think it's a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. I think it's a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over."

He continued: "I think it's terrible that we can't know the results of an election the night of the election. ... We're going to go in the night of, as soon as that election's over, we're going in with our lawyers."

"We don't want to have Pennsylvania, where you have a political governor, a very partisan guy. ... We don't want to be in a position where he's allowed, every day, to watch ballots come in. See if we can only find 10,000 more ballots."

Behind the scenes: Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.

For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.

Why it matters: Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3 — a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats — are evidence of election fraud.

Details: Many prognosticators say that on election night, Trump will likely appear ahead in Pennsylvania — though the state's final outcome could change substantially as mail-in ballots are counted over the following days. 

Trump's team is preparing to claim baselessly that if that process changes the outcome in Pennsylvania from the picture on election night, then Democrats would have "stolen" the election.

Trump's advisers have been laying the groundwork for this strategy for weeks, but this is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his election night intentions.

What they're saying: Asked for comment, the Trump campaign's communications director Tim Murtaugh said, "This is nothing but people trying to create doubt about a Trump victory. When he wins, he's going to say so."

Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller predicted that Trump "will be re-elected handily and no amount of post-election Democratic thievery will be able to change the results."

Reality check: Mail-in ballots counted after Election Day as set forth in state-by-state rules are as legitimate as in-person votes recorded on Nov. 3.

Many states won't be done counting mail ballots by Tuesday night.

In Pennsylvania, state law prevents election officials from counting mail-in ballots before Election Day.

Night-of counts may be deceptive. It could be days, if not weeks, before we know who won Pennsylvania. If it's a close race, this could also be true for other states, given the record numbers of Americans who voted by mail this year.

Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said on NBC's "Meet the Press" today that there could be 10x as many mail ballots this year than in 2016, "so, yes, it will take longer" to count.

"I expect that the overwhelming majority of ballots in Pennsylvania, that's mail-in and absentee ballots, as well as in-person ballots, will be counted within a matter of days," Boockvar said.

What we're watching: Miller, on ABC's "This Week," predicted 290+ electoral votes for Trump on election night, and he claimed Democrats are "just going to try to steal it back after the election."

He described any prospective challenges by Democrats as "hijinks or lawsuits or whatever kind of nonsense."

Between the lines: Trump advisers are more optimistic about winning than they were three weeks ago, based on my conversations with multiple senior campaign officials over the past week, including two officials with direct knowledge of sensitive internal data.

They said analyses of early-vote totals in battleground states indicate he's doing substantially worse in Iowa and Georgia compared with this point in 2016, but better than expected in Texas, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin.

Just a few weeks ago, senior Trump advisers were bearish about Wisconsin and had reduced TV advertising there to an insignificant figure. A senior campaign official told me, then, that the state didn't figure in his paths to 270 electoral votes. 

But that appears to have changed. In recent days, senior Trump advisers have privately expressed growing optimism about Wisconsin, based on their analysis of early vote data.

The other side: “It comes as no surprise that Donald Trump and his campaign plan to declare victory before all the votes are counted. That has been his strategy for months, and nobody should fall for it,” Sen. Bernie Sanders said in a statement to Axios. 

“It's why he is demonizing mail-in ballots and sabotaging the postal service. ... We will not allow that to happen. Every vote must and will be counted."

Scoop: Trump's plan to declare premature victory

This is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his own intentions.

Photo: Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

Politics

Donald Trump

2020 election

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Top lawmakers on the Senate Intelligence Committee tell Axios their biggest fear in the immediate days after Tuesday's election is a "perception hack" that throws the country into a constitutional crisis.

Why it matters: Networks of disinformation, both foreign and domestic, will have a long runway to undermine the integrity of our elections. Those aims could potentially be boosted if President Trump joins in on questioning the credibility of the system.

"This is a really dangerous moment; the only antidote is a landslide," Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) tells Axios.

What we're hearing: The chief concern within the committee, top members say, is that America's foreign adversaries, namely Russia and Iran, will sow enough doubt in the credibility of the election that they will succeed in substantiating partisan claims that the election is fraudulent. 

"They don't have to change votes," King says. "They don't have to wipe registration rolls. All they have to do is raise doubt. All they have to do is raise enough questions so that those who are prepared to call the election fraudulent or unfair or rigged have some evidence upon which to make that claim."

A senior Republican committee aide added that those doubts will likely come in the form of viral disinformation posts on Twitter and Facebook: "By the time we realize that it’s fake, it’s way too late. Half of our country will be locked into believing one thing, and half the country is locked into believing another, and then one side will think that the other party stole the election."

This becomes an even bigger problem if the president himself amplifies these messages, lawmakers say. 

The committee's ranking Democrat, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) tells Axios: "In recent months, the perception hack is coming from the White House by helping to spread disinformation about the integrity of the election. It’s a narrative foreign adversaries can leverage." 

Few Republicans were willing to go on the record before the election to say they're also extremely worried about Trump stoking these fears, but many privately acknowledged the president has put them in a tough position. 

"What do you do when the leader of your party is the person providing the fuel that could conceivably be used by foreign actors?" a GOP committee aide said.

Acting Chair Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said every American should "be cautious about believing or spreading unverified, sensational claims related to votes and voting."

He says foreign adversaries may attempt "to stage fake voter intimidation, spread last minute sensationalist claims, or target our election systems and infrastructure — or simply leave the impression that they have altered or manipulated those systems.”

The other side: “Election security has received more focus under President Trump than under any Administration before him,” a senior administration official told Axios.

The bottom line, via Axios cyber security reporter Zach Dorfman: The disinformation campaign these foreign intelligence services will conceivably execute will be based on domestic schisms that they have watched percolate from the president.

"It's like basically just priming the pump for the disinformation campaign," Dorfman writes.

To avoid falling into that trap, Warner says, Americans should "be smart" and "vote with confidence": "Don’t overreact to things you may see online that look questionable. We have a lot of smart people across both the federal and state governments working to combat misinformation; let them do their job."

Go deeper: Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears "ahead" on election night

Intel committee senators fear constitutional crisis

"This is a really dangerous moment; the only antidote is a landslide."

Sens. Angus King (left) and Mark Warner. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Senate Intelligence Committee

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Joe Biden’s team is considering an informal ban on naming Democratic U.S. senators to the Cabinet if he wins — which would effectively block Elizabeth Warren for Treasury or Bernie Sanders for Labor — people familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

The big picture: Biden, if he wins, is bracing for bruising legislative battles on day one, starting with the next phase of coronavirus relief. Many advisers don’t think he can afford to lose a single vote in the Senate if Democrats hold a slim majority.

Biden himself hasn’t made a decision on a potential Senate ban, with his efforts focused on winning on Tuesday, the sources say.

The intrigue: An informal ban could also be an elegant way of tamping down campaigns to place progressive senators in top Cabinet roles by reminding the movement of the priority around enacting legislation.

Warren and Sanders both come from an unusual construct — blue states with Republican governors who'd be empowered to fill vacancies. 

There might be a way for a Democratic supermajority in the Massachusetts legislature to force Gov. Charlie Baker to appoint a Democrat. 

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott said on Friday that if Sanders joins a potential Biden administration, he would consider a "more left-leaning type of independent that would obviously caucus with the Democrat" to replace him.

Be smart: Progressives are trying to build momentum for Warren and Sanders, to press a prospective Biden administration to embrace economic justice and eschew traditional special interests.

Some members of Biden’s inner circle are deeply skeptical about handing Treasury, which will play a key role in any economic recovery to Warren, who has expressed interest in the job.

Between the lines: If strictly applied, an informal ban also would dash Cabinet hopes for senators from states with Democratic governors, such as Chris Coons, Tammy Duckworth, Amy Klobuchar and Chris Murphy. 

Biden is close to several of them and would have to gently tell them their services are needed more in the Senate. 

But, but, but: If Democrats can secure a comfortable margin in the Senate, there’s less of an argument that losing a single seat would crimp Biden’s agenda.

Editor's note: This post has been updated with a quote from Vermont Gov. Phil Scott.

Scoop: Biden may keep Warren, Sanders out of Cabinet

It would effectively block Elizabeth Warren for Treasury or Bernie Sanders for Labor.

Joe Biden

President Trump's favorite coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas apologized on Twitter for appearing Saturday on Russia’s state-controlled RT network, where he insisted that the U.S. is turning the corner on the pandemic and that lockdowns are actually “killing people.” 

Why it matters: RT, formerly known as Russia Today, is a Russian state-owned media outlet registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. This means that all of its content is labeled as propaganda attempting to influence U.S. public opinion, policy and laws.

Atlas appeared on RT just hours after the Washington Post released an interview with Anthony Fauci, who criticized Atlas for his controversial views on the pandemic.

“I have real problems with that guy,” Fauci told the Post. “He’s a smart guy who’s talking about things that I believe he doesn’t have any real insight or knowledge or experience in. He keeps talking about things that when you dissect it out and parse it out, it doesn’t make any sense.”

The big picture: Atlas, a radiologist, has drawn criticism for reportedly promoting "herd immunity" as a COVID-19 strategy and for casting doubt on the effectiveness of masks, which studies show can help slow the spread of the coronavirus.

“The public health leadership … they’re killing people with their fear-inducing shutdown policies,” Atlas said on RT.

He also described lockdowns as an “epic failure of public policy by people who refuse to accept they were wrong.” 

Driving the news: "I recently did an interview with RT and was unaware they are a registered foreign agent," Atlas tweeted. "I regret doing the interview and apologize for allowing myself to be taken advantage of. I especially apologize to the national security community who is working hard to defend us."

Trump adviser Scott Atlas apologizes for appearing on RT

"I regret doing the interview and apologize for allowing myself to be taken advantage of."

Dr. Scott Atlas, member of the White House's coronavirus task force. Photo: Joshua Roberts/Getty Images

Scott Atlas, member of the White House's coronavirus task force. Photo: Joshua Roberts/Getty Images

Russia interference

Health Care

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Coronavirus

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

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Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller falsely claimed on Sunday that Democrats would try to "steal" electoral votes after election night if President Trump appears to be ahead, signaling a coming legal fight over mail-in ballots that are counted after Nov. 3.

Reality check: Electoral College votes are not awarded until December, and no state ever reports its final count on election night — despite Trump's insistence that the election should end on Nov. 3 and that the courts should not allow ballots to be counted in the days following.

The big picture: Amid massive early turnout, Americans are expected to vote by mail in record numbers this election — and polling has found that more Democrats than Republicans said they would mail ballots. 

Many of those votes won't be counted by election night, as states process more mailed ballots than they ever have before. 

That delay could mean that Trump will appear to lead on election night, which would shift as more Democratic votes are tallied.

Trump has baselessly accused Democrats of trying to "steal" the election by pointing to efforts that expand voting access, such as extending mail-in ballot deadlines in Pennsylvania and building an in-person voting center in the California suburbs. 

Between the lines: Trump has repeatedly declined to say whether he would accept the results of the 2020 election if he loses to Joe Biden.

He told reporters in September that he believes the Supreme Court may have to decide the result, after claiming that the only way he can lose the election is if it is "rigged." 

The Trump campaign is reportedly raising money to continue ballot fights into mid-December, per the New York Times.

What they're saying: "If you speak with many smart Democrats, they believe that President Trump will be ahead on election night, probably getting 280 electoral, somewhere in that range," Miller said on ABC's "This Week." 

"And then they're going to try to steal it back after the election. We believe that we will be over 290 electoral votes on election night.

"So no matter what they try to do, what kind of hijinks or lawsuits or whatever kind of nonsense they try to pull off, we're still going to have enough electoral votes to get President Trump re-elected." 

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Trump adviser falsely claims Democrats could "steal" electoral votes

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