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National

Senators will almost certainly get to vote on whether or not to call impeachment witnesses. The resolution laying out the rules of the trial, which will be presented Tuesday, is expected to mandate that senators can take up-or-down votes on calling for witnesses and documents.

Yes, but: Those votes won't come until the House impeachment managers and President Trump's defense team deliver their opening arguments and field Senators' questions.

Some moderate Senate Republicans have pushed for this precise language, including Sen. Susan Collins, who faces a tough re-election. The language is "critical" for her, a source familiar with Collins' thinking told Axios.

What to watch: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is also expected to use the vote on the resolution to push Democrats' messaging, with an eye trained on weakening the GOP majority in the Senate and clawing back the more vulnerable seats in November.

A Democratic leadership aide told Alayna that they will force votes on subpoenaing key witnesses such as Trump's former national security advisor John Bolton, acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, Mulvaney's senior advisor Robert Blair, and top White House budget official Michael Duffey, as well as relevant documents.

This has concerned some vulnerable Senate Republicans. "The Democratic amendments that will be offered in the beginning will be designed to screw us," a Republican Senate aide told Axios. "Like, 'How can we cut these to look like an ad?'"

"Democrats are going to try and amend these things until the cows come home, but remember, senators can't talk [during the trial]," a GOP leadership aide said. "So there won't be a clip of Susan Collins voting no on this."

Reality check: Although senators are required to remain silent during the trial, all votes will be recorded.

"This is not the political silver bullet that Democrats think it will be," the aide added. "Remember that every time Schumer offers up something to tweak our organizing resolution, it's an implicit way of saying that the House investigation came up short."

Meanwhile, a key strategy within the Trump team's defense mechanism is the notion that the articles themselves are not criminal, and therefore are not impeachable offenses, even if proven.

In turn, they'll claim this is why the debate over witnesses is bogus.

"If a person is indicted on something that is not a crime, you don't call the witnesses," Alan Dershowitz, a member of Trump's defense team, said earlier today on CNN's "State of the Union."

Go deeper: Inside Trump's strategy for blocking impeachment witnesses

What's next in the impeachment witness battle

Senators will almost certainly get to vote on whether or not to call impeachment witnesses.

Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Politics

Donald Trump impeachment

Politics & Policy

Trump officials say they feel especially bullish about one key argument against calling additional impeachment witnesses: It could compromise America's national security.

The big picture: People close to the president say their most compelling argument to persuade nervous Republican senators to vote against calling new witnesses is the claim that they're protecting national security.

Why it matters: They're banking on it to speed up the trial, according to people close to the president.

What we're hearing: White House counsel Pat Cipollone, who considers himself a civil libertarian, is expected to argue that the obstruction of Congress article is dangerous and could forever undermine the power of the executive office to protect privileged information.

Cipollone will likely frame the Senate trial as a defining moment to set the precedent for executive privilege, especially on national security matters, per a source familiar with his thinking.

This approach is something Cipollone is particularly proud of, and one that he is happy to test in court, the source said.

The argument: Presidential claims of executive privilege are especially strong when they involve conversations about national security.

Weakening that privilege would make presidents less candid when they seek counsel from their advisers on national security (think John Bolton).

The bottom line: Sources close to Trump's legal team have privately expressed confidence that former national security adviser Bolton will ultimately honor Trump's assertion of executive privilege.

Go deeper: Trump's concede-nothing defense

Inside Trump's impeachment strategy: The national security card

White House counsel Pat Cipollone will likely frame the trial as a defining moment for executive privilege.

White House counsel Pat Cipollone and acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Trump administration has a new target on the immigration front — pregnant women visiting from other countries — with plans as early as this week to roll out a new rule cracking down on "birth tourism," three administration officials told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump has threatened to end birthright citizenship and railed against immigrant "anchor babies." The new rule would be one of the first tangible steps to test how much legal authority the administration has to prevent foreigners from taking advantage of the 14th Amendment's  protection of  citizenship for anyone born in the U.S.  

"This change is intended to address the national security and law enforcement risks associated with birth tourism, including criminal activity associated with the birth tourism industry," a State Department official told Axios. 

The regulation is also part of the administration's broader efforts to intensify the vetting process for visas, according to another senior administration official.

The big picture: "Birth tourists" often come to the U.S. from China, Russia and Nigeria, according to the AP. 

There's no official count of babies born to foreign visitors in the U.S., while the immigration restrictionist group Center for Immigration Studies — which has close ties to Trump administration immigration officials — puts estimates at around 33,000 every year. 

How the new regulation would work: It would alter the requirements for B visas (or visitor visas), giving State Department officials the authority to deny foreigners the short-term business and tourism visas if they believe the process is being used to facilitate automatic citizenship.

It's unclear yet how the rule would be enforced — whether officials would be directed to consider pregnancy or the country of the woman's citizenship in determining whether to grant a visa. 

Consular officers who issue passports and visas "are remarkably skilled at sussing out true versus false claims," the senior official said. 

"The underlying practical issue is that very few people who give birth in the U.S. got a visa for that specific purpose. Most people already have visas and come in later," according to Jeffrey Gorsky, former chief legal adviser in the State Department visa office.

This is but one step in the administration's plans to make it harder for people from other countries to benefit from birthright citizenship. 

"Rome wasn't built in a day," the senior official said. "Just the legal recognition that this is improper and wrong and not allowed is a significant step forward." 

The plans to address the use of B visas for birth tourism were included in the latest version of the Unified Agenda of Federal Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions.

Immigration experts expect there to be a similar rule for Customs and Border Protection to go along with the State Department's regulation. 

What to watch: Most of Trump's major immigration moves have been met with lawsuits. If the regulation leaves it to officers' discretion to ensure that B visas aren't used for birth tourism, it would be difficult to challenge in court, according to Lynden Melmed, an attorney and former chief counsel at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. 

"State Department officials have all the discretion in the world to deny people visas," said Sarah Pierce of the Migration Policy Institute. Foreign nationals who are outside the U.S. and have not yet received visas "don't have a lot of legal standing." 

But specific restrictions that could keep out non-birth tourism visitors — such as pregnant women coming to the U.S. for business, etc. — would be legally questionable, according to Melmed and Gorsky.

Go deeper: Trump's most effective border wall isn't a physical one

Scoop: "Birth tourism" is Trump's next immigration target

It's one step in Trump's plans to make it harder for immigrants to benefit from birthright citizenship.

Illustration of a woman holding a baby wrapped in an American flag

Immigration

World

President Trump is expected to decide in the next several days whether to present the White House's Middle East peace plan before Israel's March 2 elections, Israeli and U.S. sources told me. 

Why it matters: If the plan is presented before the Israeli elections, it could influence the campaign and possibly provide a boost to embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. If Trump decides to wait, it could become difficult to present the plan at a later stage because of the presidential campaign in the U.S.

Behind the scenes: There have been intense deliberations over the past several days among the Trump advisers tasked with dealing with this issue. Trump himself still hasn’t had a discussion with his team on whether to present the plan before the Israeli elections. 

Israeli and U.S. sources tell me Trump’s decision will be influenced by several factors: 

Developments in the impeachment process in Congress. 

The meetings Trump and his senior adviser Jared Kushner will have with different leaders from the Middle East and Europe during the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, where the peace plan will be one of the topics raised. 

Kushner is expected to travel from Davos to Jerusalem on Wednesday to participate in the Fifth World Holocaust Forum, where he is likely to meet Netanyahu and his political opponent Benny Gantz — the leader of the Blue and White party — and discuss the peace plan. 

Between the lines: Netanyahu wants the White House to present the plan in order to shift the focus of his campaign away from his corruption cases. Gantz wants the White House to wait and has even argued that releasing the peace plan ahead of the elections would amount to electoral interference.

White House officials told me Trump still hasn’t made a decision, but didn't deny that one could be coming soon.

Go deeper: Netanyahu faces new political headwinds ahead of election

Trump to decide in coming days on when to release Middle East peace plan

The release of the plan could influence the outcome of Israel's March 2 elections.

Photo: Michael Reynolds - Pool/Getty Images

Israeli-Palestinian peace process

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

TULSA, Okla. — Mike Bloomberg is ready to acknowledge his white privilege, and he's hoping it'll help him with black voters.

Why it matters: Bloomberg’s courtship of black voters appears an uphill climb because of his past support for stop-and-frisk in New York City. He's seeking to redefine his reputation with black voters using his biggest strength — an understanding of data and the economy — to present himself as a wealth advocate on their behalf.

"Stop-and-frisk," a policy for which Bloomberg apologized prior to launching his campaign, is haunting the former New York mayor at a time when race and gender are driving the political conversation.

During his 12-year tenure, "there were millions of street stops heavily targeting black and brown young men," per the New York Times.

Now, Bloomberg is facing the impact his own political legacy has had on the black community.

Driving the news: The former New York mayor is giving a speech on the racial wealth gap and economic mobility in Tulsa on Sunday, delivering some of his most honest remarks on race since launching his presidential campaign. Bloomberg's campaign is also releasing "the Greenwood Initiative," an economic proposal that aims to address the lasting legacy of discrimination.  

What they're saying: "As someone who has been very lucky in life, I often say my story would only have been possible in America — and that’s true," Bloomberg is expected to say at the Greenwood Cultural Center.  

"But I also know that my story might have turned out very differently if I had been black, and that more black Americans of my generation would have ended up with far more wealth, had they been white." 

Bloomberg's team maintains that he’s been aware of his privilege for a long time — because of his experience in New York City and because he's a data guy familiar with racial disparities — but now he's talking about it publicly. 

Bloomberg's Greenwood plan combines some of the other ideas we've heard from other 2020 Democrats, like investing in black-owned businesses and stimulating generational wealth for African American families.

A senior adviser for the campaign told reporters that they think what makes his plan different is its "place-based" strategy: The campaign is working to identify 100 communities — mostly in non-white areas — hit hardest by economic and/or racial discrimination.

The adviser also said that Bloomberg supports H.R. 40, a House bill that calls for a commission to study reparations for slavery.

By the numbers: Bloomberg's team is not yet saying where the money is coming from or how much the full plan will cost. 

It proposes $70 billion over 10 years specifically for the 100 communities.

It would also seek to create 1 million new black homeowners, which a senior adviser said would get the country back to 2003 numbers — the last time black homeownership rates were still climbing.

The plan would double the number of black-owned businesses, to 100,000, and seek to increase median household income for black families by one-third.

It would also invest an initial $10 billion for the creation of a Housing Fairness Commission.

"For black Americans, there was nothing that white landowners, businesses, banks, and politicians might not take: Their wages and their homes, their businesses and their wealth, their votes and their power, and even their lives," Bloomberg is expected to say in his speech. 

Tulsa was known as "Black Wall Street" because it had several prominent and successful black-owned business, until race riots in 1921 destroyed the area and these businesses. 

"What happened here in Tulsa demonstrates in incredibly stark relief the violent destruction of a prosperous black community and the enormous obstacles that so many black Americans have faced not only in creating wealth, but in passing down assets to their children and grand-children as generations of white families have done," Bloomberg will say.

Between the lines: Bloomberg is running a non-traditional campaign with an eye toward general election states rather than the early voting states. But so far, the campaign has been less clear on how to earn the support of African American voters.

Bloomberg is currently polling at 4% among African American voters in the Democratic primary. Since 1992, no Democratic candidate for president has become the party nominee without earning a majority of the black vote. 

The big question: Will Bloomberg continue the conversation on racial discrimination past MLK weekend? If so, he'll have to continue processing the legacy of "stop-and-frisk" in public and in real time.

Bloomberg argues that early focus on Iowa and New Hampshire benefits Trump

Bloomberg: "I’m spending all my money to get rid of Trump"

Bloomberg: "My story might have turned out very differently if I had been black"

Bloomberg is ready to acknowledge his white privilege, and he's hoping it'll help him with black voters.

Michael Bloomberg

2020 election

Space

Axios Space

SpaceX on Sunday completed an in-flight test of its abort system designed to keep astronauts safe in the event of an emergency during launch. 

Why it matters: The test marks the last major milestone ahead of SpaceX's first crewed flight to the International Space Station for NASA.

The state of play: SpaceX's Crew Dragon was launched atop a Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, at 10:30 a.m. ET. 

Not long after launch, the Crew Dragon's onboard engines propelled the capsule away from the Falcon 9 to simulate what would happen in the event of an emergency during ascent. 

The Falcon 9 broke up after the Crew Dragon accelerated away from the rocket, as expected.

The Crew Dragon then splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean where recovery teams are on hand to grab it and bring it back to shore.

Between the lines: This was a particularly important test for SpaceX after one of the company's Crew Dragons was destroyed during a ground test in April. 

SpaceX launches test of abort system to keep astronauts safe

The test involved the destruction of a Falcon 9 rocket.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

What's next in the impeachment witness battle

Inside Trump's impeachment strategy: The national security card

Scoop: "Birth tourism" is Trump's next immigration target

Trump to decide in coming days on when to release Middle East peace plan

Bloomberg: "My story might have turned out very differently if I had been black"

SpaceX launches test of abort system to keep astronauts safe

Dershowitz claims abuse of power is not an impeachable offense even if proven

Trump's concede-nothing defense

Maduro says he is firmly in control and won't be stopped by U.S. sanctions

White House national security official on leave pending investigation

Capitalism's discontents