National

I published today on Israel's Channel 10 News the details of a classified foreign ministry report about the Iran protests which was sent to the offices of Prime Minister Netanyahu and to cabinet ministers.

Big picture: The Israeli Foreign Ministry report says the Iranian regime was surprised by the mass protest and is now trying to contain it through preventive arrests and crackdown on social media — while trying to avoid violent response against protesters.

The Iran protests started over economic issues but very fast "took a political and violent turn which included harsh anti-regime criticism over government spending on Syria, Lebanon and Yemen."The analysts wrote: "For now the #IranProtests are not a threat for the regime's survival but they weaken it, damage its legitimacy & if continue it can threaten its stability."The report also said: "The radicalization of the #IranProtests messages & the fact people took to the streets shows in our understanding that the barrier of fear for the Iranian citizen started breaking."Many Iranians fear the Iran protests might lead to chaos like in other countries in the region (Syria), according to the report.President Hassan Rouhani's public image took a hit, the report says.But many Iranians still support him because they see him as the least of all possible evils.Bottom line: The Iran protests emphasize the deep changes in Iranian society and the fact that part of it is distancing itself from the values of the Islamic revolution and demand more openness.

Inside the classified Israeli report on the Iran protests

The Israeli Foreign Ministry report says the Iranian regime was surprised

Politics

Report: Australian ambassador told FBI about Papadopoulos claims

Now the Australian government is annoyed that the source has been revealed. 

Australian ambassador to the U.S. Joe Hockey at the 2017 White House Correspondents Dinner. Photo: Chris Usher / Getty

Niagara Falls becomes ice-covered spectacle - BBC News

Niagara Falls, surrounded by ice

Science

Nature

The 2.3% excise tax on medical devices that was passed in the Affordable Care Act is coming back in 2018, the AP reports:

"Congress voted to suspend the tax for 2016 and 2017 with the widespread expectation it would be permanently abolished before 2018. But various GOP efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and the taxes associated with it failed, and the sweeping federal tax overhaul recently signed by President Donald Trump didn't eliminate the medical device tax either."

Medical device tax coming back in 2018

Business

"300 prominent actresses and female agents, writers, directors, producers and entertainment executives have formed an ambitious, sprawling initiative [Time's Up] to fight systemic sexual harassment in Hollywood and in blue-collar workplaces nationwide," N.Y. Times' Cara Buckley reports.

"A legal defense fund, backed by $13 million in donations, [will] help less privileged women — like janitors, nurses and workers at farms, factories, restaurants and hotels — protect themselves from sexual misconduct and the fallout from reporting it."

Women of Hollywood launch anti-harassment initiative

"A legal defense fund, backed by $13 million in donations"

"California pot shops prepare for their first day of legal recreational marijuana sales," by L.A. Times' Angel Jennings and Sarah Parvini:

The nation's largest state today marks its first day of legal recreational marijuana sales, after voters approved legalization in 2016.

Robert Taft Jr., founder of the medical marijuana dispensary 420 Central in Santa Ana, "brought in five new cash registers and hired six additional 'budtenders.'"

"To sell cannabis commercially in January — for recreational or medical use — marijuana businesses must have local approval and a state license."

Per AP: In general, the state will treat cannabis like alcohol, allowing people 21 and older to possess up to an ounce of pot and grow six marijuana plants at home."

Bummer: "Los Angeles has delayed accepting applications for legal sales until Jan. 3, and it will be weeks before any shops open."

The legalized marijuana era begins in California

"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for urgent talks with South Korea to make the Winter Olympics next month a success even while repeating claims that he could strike the U.S. with a nuclear bomb," per Bloomberg.

Kim, in an annual New Year's Day speech: ""It's reality, not a threat, that the nuclear button is always on my desk ... The U.S. can never start a war against myself and our nation now."'

A tuxedoed Trump, strolling past the media pool at his Mar-a-Lago New Years' Eve party, replied when asked about Kim's "button" claim: "We'll see, we'll see. Come on inside."

Bite of the day ... Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, to Martha Raddatz on ABC's This Week:

"We're actually closer, in my view, to a nuclear war with North Korea and in that region than we have ever been. And I just don't see how — I don't see the opportunities to solve this diplomatically at this particular point."

Trump on North Korea: "We'll see"

Kim warns of a "nuclear button" on his desk

President Trump arrives for a new year's party at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida. Photo Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images

World

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Artificial Intelligence can now scan millions of pictures taken by Google Street View to glean insights like income or voting patterns, The New York Times reports. In a Stanford project, computers scanned millions of pictures of parked cars to predict voting patterns and pollution.

Why it matters: The project at Stanford (where a computer did in 2 weeks what would have taken a human 15 years) shows that computer vision is getting smart enough, with some human training, to begin mining massive visual sets of data created by products like Google Street View.

Here's what the Stanford project was able to learn and predict using automobile pictures, according to the Times:

Accurately predicted "income, race, education and voting patterns at the ZIP code and precinct level in cities across the country."

Using auto data, it found that Burlington, Vermont, is the nation's greenest city and Casper, Wyoming, has the biggest carbon footprint per-capita.

Chicago has the highest level of income segregation and Jacksonville has the least.

New York City has the most expensive cars, El Paso has the highest percentage of Hummers and San Francisco has the highest percentage of foreign cars.

Using AI to mine Google Street View

Computers scanned millions of pictures of parked cars to predict voting patterns and pollution.

A Google Maps Street View car. Photo: James Leynse/Corbis via Getty images

Technology

Future

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Ten people were killed overnight in anti-government protests sweeping Iran, according to state TV, via BBC.

President Trump tweeted this morning: "Iran is failing at every level despite the terrible deal made with them by the Obama Administration. The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years. They are hungry for food & for freedom. Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran is being looted. TIME FOR CHANGE!"

The unrest continued despite a call for calm from President Hassan Rouhani. In his first intervention, Rouhani warned yesterday that violence would not be tolerated.

Rouhani acknowledged grievances over Iran's economic situation, a lack of transparency and corruption, but defended his record.

The Iranian president said that citizens were "completely free to express their criticism of the government or stage protests... in a way that would lead to the improvement of the country's conditions" but warned against violent acts.

How it's playing ... L.A. Times lead story, "TRUMP TWEETS AS IRAN CRACKS DOWN President's support of protests may backfire as Tehran points to his 'rogue nation' insults at earlier U.N. event."

Unrest in Iran: 10 deaths, Trump tweets "TIME FOR CHANGE"

Ten people were killed overnight in anti-government protests sweeping Iran

Iranian students scuffle with police at the University of Tehran. Photo: STR/AFP/Getty Images

Background: The U.S. is currently considering whether to give Pakistan $255 million it withheld in August over concerns the nation isn't doing enough to crack down on terror groups, the NYT reported last week. U.S. aid to Pakistan totals $33 billion since 2002.

Trump starts 2018 by threatening Pakistan's foreign aid

"The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years"

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

As the new year begins, here are the smartest predictions of what's coming in politics, tech and business in 2018.

The big picture: In many ways 2018 will mirror 2017. The world's largest economies will continue to grow in sync, the #MeToo movement will continue to topple men who behave badly from positions of power, and the North Korean nuclear threat will keep fueling international tensions. But new trends may emerge if the Democrats take the House in the midterm elections or media companies find a solution to the "fake news" epidemic

Democrats will take back the House "by an eyelash" in the 2018 midterm elections, the Financial Times' Courtney Weaver predicts. It's typical for the party of the president to lose seats in the midterms, and the Republican Party could "lose big" given Trump's sub-50 approval rating. A Democrat majority in the House would also mean impeachment proceedings against Trump could gain ground in the new year.

Trump's approach to China is about to change for several reasons, per Sinocism's Bill Bishop: the administration's National Security Strategy very clearly reframed the U.S. government's view of China in a confrontational way, the president believes China is still not doing enough on North Korea, and the administration's "America First" trade contingent is ascendant. Several trade actions are in the planning stages and they will likely hit soon.

Uneasy tension around the North Korean nuclear threat will continue — or escalate. Trump tweeted on Dec. 28 that there won't be a "friendly solution" to the issue of North Korea if China violates UN sanctions against the rogue regime. And Admiral Mike Mullen, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said on ABC's This Week that the U.S. is closer "than ever before" to a nuclear confrontation with North Korea.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will keep her job, per the Financial Times' Sebastian Payne. "Sealing a Brexit divorce deal has ensured short-term job security," Payne writes.

Zimbabwe won't hold free and fair elections in 2018 despite the end to Robert Mugabe's 37-year rule, FT's David Pilling predicts. And Al Jazeera's Barnaby Phillips writes ,"Emmerson Mnangagwa will surely prove a more capable manager of Zimbabwe's economy than Mugabe, but there are plenty of reasons to fear he'll be just as ruthless and undemocratic."

Synchronized growth will continue. This year, for the first time since the Great Recession, the world's leading economies grew in sync. And that growth will hold into 2018, Goldman Sachs research economists predict. They're forecasting 4.0% GDP growth for the new year, up from a 3.7% projection for 2017.

Emerging markets will grow as well. Average GDP growth for emerging markets will reach 5%, up from 4.7% in 2017, per the Financial Times' James Kynge. "This will mostly be because Russia and Brazil, which have stumbled, will bounce back," Kynge writes.

Big Tech will get stronger. "Silicon Valley got raked over the coals in 2017 about sexism, security and its influence on national affairs. But it hasn't really grappled with the bigger problem: There's too much power in the hands of too few ... Expect to see tech giants flogging their "social good" efforts in the year ahead, but our trust won't be restored by watching them act like benevolent dictators," per the Washington Post's Gregory Fowler.

Bitcoin will keep dominating headlines with its dramatic crashes and booms. Goldman Sachs became the first major Wall Street institution to launch a trading desk for the cryptocurrency in 2017, and, as more institutions venture into the crypto world, prices will rise accordingly, CNBC's Eric Jackson predicts.

Augmented reality will rise in prominence, Axios' Alayna Treene reports. "In the next few years, we're going to see AR develop significantly and start to break through to the mainstream. Once that happens, it will effect almost every aspect of daily life — from entertainment and work to education and transportation."

Transparency will become "the antidote to fake news," Frontline's Raney Aronson-Rath tells Nieman Lab. Per Aronson-Rath, "We've seen Facebook make moves towards differentiating between verified and unverified stories. Twitter and Google, too. But the problem is massive, and these are just first steps."

The #MeToo movement will continue toppling powerful men who behave badly in media and every other industry. Here's a list of the 82 men accused of sexual harassment and assault in 2017.

What to watch in 2018

What's coming in politics, tech and business

The White House, the Shanghai skyline, Moscow's Red Square. Photos: Getty Images

A big majority of Americans are hopeful about how 2018 will go for them personally, but are split when asked about how they view the world next year — Republicans are more hopeful while Democrats are more fearful.

Data: Survey Monkey; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Democrats are more fearful about the year ahead

Most Americans are hopeful about how 2018 will go for them personally, but are split when asked about how they view the world

Monday's top stories