Axios

The Iran war threatens to disrupt summer travel as it sends oil prices surging — and flight and hotel bookings are already dipping, industry experts warn.

The big picture: Rising oil prices and dwindling supplies are hitting travel as drivers face higher gas prices and airlines in the U.S. and elsewhere cut flights and raise ticket costs and baggage fees.

You thought Americans were bummed out? The British are among the most pessimistic in the world, according to a ranking of surveys across 139 countries from Gallup out Friday.

Why it matters: The low number speaks to the "depth of the economic malaise in the U.K.," writes Benedict Vigers, Gallup's senior global news writer.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is calling on Washington to collaborate with China on AI, breaking from a bipartisan approach that frames AI development as a race between the two countries.

Why it matters: Sanders, who is writing the progressive playbook on AI, is shifting the focus away from U.S.-China competition and toward international cooperation around AI safety.

The U.S. is producing so much natural gas that at one hub in West Texas, drillers have to pay customers to take the stuff — or put another way, prices are negative!

Why it matters: It's surprising given that we're in the middle of the worst energy shock in history.

• But unlike oil, which trades in a global market, natural gas still mostly trades at the regional level. And the U.S. produces enough to supply itself.

The big picture: The negative price tag is an indication of just how well-positioned the U.S. is when it comes to coping with the energy shock of the Iran war — particularly in the natural gas market.

• The natural gas bounty not only insulates the U.S. from the war shock but actually creates an economic tailwind, Bloomberg reports.
• "Cheap supplies of gas — a key manufacturing input and a major player in meeting power demand from artificial intelligence — stand to give the US an edge over countries facing fuel shortages," per Bloomberg.

Between the lines: While prices at the pump get a lot of attention, and rightly so, natural gas is increasingly important. It now accounts for about 40% of all U.S. electricity generation — and is powering the AI boom.

Zoom in: The glut of natural gas in West Texas stems from a surge in production over the past 15 years that has far outpaced the pipelines needed to move it out of the region.

• This isn't the first time the price has turned negative.
• The gas is a byproduct created during the oil drilling process.
• New pipeline capacity is set to come online, but more gluts could be on the way.

What they're saying: That will "provide incremental takeaway capacity for a basin awash in molecules," says Chris Louney, a commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

• But "the basin is prolific, and associated gas will continue to be produced, often in excess, alongside crude oil."

How it works: For now, that local oversupply — even as other parts of the world face acute shortages — highlights how fragmented natural gas markets remain.

• Prices are still driven largely by regional infrastructure, not just global supply and demand.

By the numbers: U.S. natural gas prices outside of the region are still positive — the benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price is sitting at $2.64 per million BTUs, down about 20% from last year.

• That's much lower than for Asia and Europe, both depend on imports through the Strait of Hormuz. The benchmark gas price is up about 47% in the EU and more than 50% in Asia from last year.
• Asian countries, outside of China, are grappling with a shortage that's led to rationing and severe measures to deal with shortfalls and high prices.

What to watch: The market has been becoming more global, especially with the U.S. rising as the world's top exporter of liquefied natural gas.

• Still, the Iran war is exposing the limits of that interconnected system.

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund is ending funding for LIV Golf after this season, according to multiple reports.

Why it matters: The Public Investment Fund's decision places the lucrative golf tour in serious jeopardy of dissolving four years after it launched as a well-capitalized competitor to the PGA Tour.

President Trump told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel should only take "surgical" military action in Lebanon and avoid a full resumption of the war, Trump told Axios in a phone interview.

Why it matters: The ceasefire Trump helped broker in Lebanon is being only partially observed, and officials in both Israel and Lebanon are concerned it will collapse entirely before it's due to expire in mid-May.

The trade pact that binds North America is quietly under the most strain since its inception, risking a break in one of the world's most integrated manufacturing economies.

Why it matters: A joint review of the signature Trump 1.0 trade agreement — the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, itself an update of the North American Free Trade Agreement — was expected to be a technical exercise. Instead, a war of words between U.S. and Canadian officials is pushing the deal to a potential breaking point.

President Trump told Axios he's going to keep Iran under a naval blockade until the regime agrees to a deal that addresses U.S. concerns about its nuclear program.

Why it matters: Trump is rejecting an Iranian proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear talks to a later stage.

Airline deal activity may heat up this summer, even if United has ended its pursuit of American Airlines.

The big picture: Global jet fuel prices are skyrocketing, and supply is dwindling, due to an Iran war that feels no closer to resolution today than it was several weeks ago.

Kone, a Finnish elevator and escalator maker, has agreed to buy Germany's TK Elevator for €29.4 billion from Advent International and Cinven.

Why it matters: This creates the world's largest lift maker by sales.