Axios

Some Federal Reserve officials wanted to keep interest rate increases on the table, given the stubborn inflation that was set to be amplified by the Iran war, according to minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 policy meeting, released Wednesday.

Why it matters: Even as many officials see rate cuts down the line, the prospect of increasing rates highlights the uncertainty about the path of borrowing costs this year.

Airline stocks surged Wednesday as a ceasefire in the Iran war eased fears of a prolonged fuel shock and Delta signaled that travel demand remains strong.

Why it matters: The spike in jet fuel prices has sparked fears of a slowdown in travel as ticket prices rise — but Delta's projections suggest travelers will be resilient.

Gasoline prices could start reversing nationally in the next two days by dropping a few cents daily, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Average U.S. gas prices have climbed more than 70 cents over the past month due to the Iran conflict, presenting a worsening political headache for President Trump.

The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire Tuesday night — with a commitment to open the Strait of Hormuz — and oil prices plunged, the biggest one-day fall for Brent crude since the 1991 Gulf War.

Why it matters: Investors seemed to see it coming, even as many others agonized over President Trump's threat to eliminate Iran's "civilization," and stocks barely flinched Tuesday, just as they have declined only modestly since the war started.

NATO chief Mark Rutte returns to Washington this week, facing fresh doubts about the alliance inside the White House and on the Hill.

Why it matters: His relationship with President Trump will be put to the test, as the geopolitical stakes — the near-future of the transatlantic bond, ongoing war in the Middle East, gas-price gloom, European rearmament and more — ratchet up.

Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump's ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn't know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced.

Crude oil prices dropped sharply Tuesday evening, falling well under $100 per barrel after President Trump said the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran that Pakistan had proposed.

Why it matters: Apart from COVID, it's the biggest one-day free fall in oil prices since the 1991 Gulf War.

The U.S. has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran proposed by Pakistan, President Trump said Tuesday night.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran's acceptance and said Iran would allow "safe passage" of the Strait of Hormuz during those two weeks "via coordination with Iran's armed forces."

The big picture: The Pakistani proposal, which came hours before Trump's deadline to launch massive strikes if no deal was reached, involves a pause on Trump's threat and a commitment from Iran to open the strait.

A first round of negotiations between the United States and Iran on an agreement to end the war is planned for Friday in Islamabad, according to two sources familiar with the plans.

The big picture: Those would be the first in-person negotiations since the war began.

Pope Leo XIV denounced President Trump's threat to wipe out Iran's civilization on Tuesday.

The big picture: The first U.S.-born pontiff told reporters in Italian "this threat against the entire people of Iran" is "truly unacceptable," according to a Vatican News translation.