Axios

A U.S. special forces soldier was arrested and charged with using classified information about the raid to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to profit from prediction market bets, the Department of Justice announced Thursday.

Why it matters: The case lands as regulators and lawmakers intensify scrutiny of prediction markets — offering a real-world test of how aggressively authorities pursue insider trading tied to sensitive government information.

• This is the first time the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed charges of insider trading in connection with event contracts, per a CFTC statement.

Opposition to President Trump's potential Spirit Airlines bailout is mounting in Congress, including among his fellow Republicans.

Why it matters: Lawmakers from both parties are questioning whether taxpayers should rescue a repeat-bankrupt airline with an uncertain path to profitability.

President Trump on Thursday announced a drug pricing deal with Regeneron — the last of 17 manufacturers the administration pressured last year to commit to his "most favored nation" policy.

Why it matters: The deals with the other companies to lower certain drug prices are being touted as one of the administration's signature health accomplishments, though Democrats question whether the confidential arrangements are really helping consumers.

AI is no longer just a research tool in Washington, D.C. — it's starting to shape how policymakers form opinions, according to Penta Group data shared exclusively with Axios.

Why it matters: Policymakers are the latest to lean on AI for guidance, signaling its growing role in shaping decisions across markets, consumer behavior and now public policy.

At the start of the war, stocks fell and oil prices rose on fears of the economic fallout from a historic energy shock — now that connection is fraying.

Why it matters: It highlights a key distinction between the stock market, which frequently seems to trade on vibes and memes, and commodities markets which ultimately are tethered to real physical goods.

Economists and analysts say that AI in the long term will make the economy more productive — we'll get more done in less time, and that might even keep inflation in check.

Why it matters: It's a long complicated road to get to that fairy-tale ending. In the short term, AI is actually increasing inflation modestly at a time of more urgent inflationary pressures like war.

Buyer's remorse is hitting House Republicans over their mid-cycle redistricting war — a strategy meant to protect their majority that's now deeply in danger of backfiring.

Why it matters: What began as an effort to create more GOP-controlled seats — and avoid a Democratic takeover that would weaken President Trump — now could be a wash, or even add to Democrats' edge.

China has stashed away far more oil than any other country, according to U.S. government data released this week.

Why it matters: The stockpile, which surged last year, is emerging as a strategic advantage as the world faces an oil shock with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut.

REDFORD, Texas — The Trump administration delivered a blunt message to angry landowners at a rare in-person meeting on Tuesday:

• Work with us on the border wall, or we'll build it anyway.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's pressure to show progress on border wall mileage in west Texas is leading to rushed and sloppy work that's infuriating local residents, ranchers and the tourism industry.

The death of Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.) has reignited a debate among Democratic lawmakers and activists about the party's aging — and often ailing — leadership.

Why it matters: Scott's death leaves the party down yet another vote at a high-stakes moment, some of his colleagues fumed on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about the matter.