Axios

President Trump's planned tariffs for generic drugs are the clearest test yet of whether the administration can keep its promises to both increase U.S. drug manufacturing and lower prescription costs.

Why it matters: Tariffs could give the country more control over the supply chain, but they could also make some of the country's cheapest medicines more expensive at a time when consumers are clamoring for relief.

The small businesses behind high-profile legal challenges to President Trump's trade agenda are suing again to block his latest import taxes.

Why it matters: The lawsuits set up another legal test of Trump's tariff agenda after courts this year rejected one tariff regime and another remains tied up in court.

The conservative Club for Growth is wading into Florida's wildest GOP primary with a massive $1.1 million ad buy to crush one of its biggest foes: former Rep. Chris Collins.

Why it matters: It's the club's own ABC strategy: "Anybody but Chris."

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is pulling off something today's Republicans rarely attempt: telling President Trump "no."

Why it matters: Pressure from Trump and the MAGA base is piling up on Thune (R-S.D.), especially over a voter ID bill, but he has an important insurance policy: GOP senators have his back.

President Trump's economic sales pitch is colliding with voters' sour moods on high prices and the economy as the 2026 midterms loom.

Why it matters: Economic frustration is giving Democrats an opening on the issue that often decides elections — and could help them erase Republicans' narrow congressional majorities in November.

What Axios' Alex Thompson is hearing from Democratic insiders about the party's most likely 2028 Democratic nominees, as told to Jim VandeHei for his weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter:

1. Kamala Harris. She is far ahead of every other contender with Black voters, still the most important voting bloc in a Democratic primary. Her allies argue that no one else is as prepared for a national campaign. She was a better candidate in 2024 than in 2020 and is working hard to be a better, more authentic, less cautious candidate in 2028. Harris is likely a beneficiary of Democrats' preliminary choice yesterday of South Carolina, instead of Nevada, for the first Democratic presidential primary of 2028.

The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed.

The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week.

• If the Federal Open Market Committee were to do so, it would suggest a new era in which the central bank is less predictable — accepting more volatility and surprise as the price to be paid for greater policy nimbleness.

President Trump told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause U.S. strikes on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, but stressed that he could order a return to expanded military operations if diplomacy fails.

Why it matters: The current negotiations are focused on a new deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and relaunch talks on a comprehensive nuclear deal.

Three people were killed and four were injured in a shooting during the Bite of Seattle food festival at Seattle Center around 6pm Sunday, per the Seattle Police Department.

The big picture: Two died at the scene, and four others — including a 2-year-old boy — were taken to Harborview Medical Center with gunshot wounds, according to the Seattle Fire Department.

Democrats are learning a hard lesson Republicans know all too well: The party out of power doesn't just ride the anti-incumbency wave — it can also get swept up in it.

Why it matters: The populist energy surging through the left after President Trump's return to the White House is roiling Democratic primaries and fueling establishment fears about the party's general election chances.