How Oregon's 5th Congressional District could tip the House
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Republican U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (right) is facing a challenge from Democratic state lawmaker Janelle Bynum (left). Photo illustration: Axios Visuals. Photos: Courtesy of campaigns
Oregon's 5th Congressional District race is shaping up to be a key battleground in the fight for a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives next year — with Democrats hoping to flip the seat blue following a narrow GOP win in 2022 after statewide redistricting.
Why it matters: While the district has historically been a swing area — it stretches from southeast Portland down near Eugene and east toward Bend — the outcome on Election Day could have national implications, political experts tell Axios.
- Plus: Voters will be "inundated with ads," Annie Ellison, executive director of Emerge Oregon, an organization that trains Democratic women to run for office, said. "They're probably already seeing messaging."
Driving the news: A new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights found incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democratic challenger state lawmaker Janelle Bynum in a dead heat — each polling at 42% and 43%, respectively.
- 14% of voters surveyed were undecided.
- The poll surveyed 419 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of ± 4.8%.
Catch up quick: In 2021, Oregon lawmakers approved a new congressional map to reflect new population counts from the census, adding a brand new district (OR-6) and tacking much of Deschutes County onto the 5th.
- Republicans balked at the plans, and said the move to spilt Portland up into four districts would only favor Democrats.
- That was until Chavez-DeRemer triumphed over Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by 7,000 votes for the OR-5 seat in 2022.
The big picture: Democrats in the U.S. House only need to flip five seats to gain control of the chamber this election year — and OR-5's competitive race is at the top of the list.
State of play: Right now, there's a "push and pull" between the candidates in regard to messaging, Ben Gaskins, a political scientist and professor at Lewis and Clark College, told Axios.
- Bynum's campaign is trying to nationalize the race, he said, focusing on issues like abortion and highlighting Chavez-DeRemer's support for former President Trump.
- Meanwhile, Chavez-DeRemer is focusing on more local issues like the economy, homelessness and criticizing Bynum's record on crime during her time in the Legislature.
The intrigue: Bynum beat Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley, twice before in a race for the Oregon State Legislature. And Ellison also pointed to Bynum's significant lead over McLeod-Skinner in May's primary as a positive sign.
- "Democrats are not split," she said. "They're ready to go."
What we're watching: If Chavez-DeRemer holds onto her seat amid new Democratic enthusiasm.
- "Turnout matters a great deal, and in a high interest election like we're bound to have in a couple months, it's hard to predict how it's going to shake out," Gaskin said.
What's next: Chavez-DeRemer and Bynum will face off in four televised debates leading up to the election. The first is scheduled for Oct. 5.