How the Pacific Northwest could decide control of the House
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
At least two races in Washington and three in Oregon could prove pivotal in the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Why it matters: With Republicans holding a narrow 219-213 House majority, five competitive Pacific Northwest races could tip the scales in one party's favor.
Zoom in: Both major parties are laser-focused on the 3rd Congressional District in Southwest Washington, where first-term incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) is defending her seat.
- Gluesenkamp Perez is one of only five House Democrats nationwide who represent districts that voted for Donald Trump in 2020.
- Before her 2022 win, the district — which includes Vancouver and other communities within commuting distance of Portland — had been in Republican hands for more than a decade.
State of play: The race is listed as a toss-up by both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, a publication of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
- Kyle Kondik, Sabato's Crystal Ball managing editor, told Axios he considers the WA-03 race among the top 20 or so U.S. House races to watch this year, out of 435 on the ballot.
The intrigue: This year's race may end up as a rematch between Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican Joe Kent, who made it to the general election ballot in 2022 after defeating a more moderate GOP incumbent, then-Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, in the 2022 primary.
- This year, Republican candidate Leslie Lewallen is also competing for a spot on the ballot, arguing she'll be more competitive against Gluesenkamp Perez in November.
Another toss-up race is Oregon's 5th Congressional District, where Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer is defending her seat.
- The newly redrawn district includes suburbs southeast of Portland and stretches southward to include Linn County and most of Clackamas and Deschutes counties.
What they're saying: Erin Covey, a U.S. House analyst for the Cook Political Report, told Axios that Chavez-DeRemer is "one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country" this year.
Yes, but: For now, most eyes are focused on the district's contentious Democratic primary, where state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) is competing against Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who narrowly lost to Chavez-DeRemer in 2022.
- McLeod-Skinner edged out then-Rep. Kurt Schrader in the 2022 primary to become the Democratic candidate in that year's general election.
The big picture: Three other races — in Washington's 8th, Oregon's 4th and Oregon's 6th congressional districts — are all in play, although Democrats appear to have the edge, per the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.
What we're watching: Democrats hope to flip Eastern Washington's 5th Congressional District seat, which is coming open with the retirement of Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane) — although races there haven't been especially close in recent years.