Mar 8, 2024 - Politics

Analysis: Latinos will represent a quarter of Arizona voters in November

Illustration of a group of raised hands contrasted next to a single large hand voting

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

About a quarter of Arizona voters who cast a ballot in November are expected to be Latino, according to an analysis by the NALEO Educational Fund released last month.

  • That mirrors the share of Latino voters in 2020, and represents an increase of almost 20% from 2016.

Why it matters: Latino voters, an increasingly ideologically and racially diverse demographic, have helped swing tight races in battleground states like ours and are expected to play a critical role in November.

The intrigue: In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Latinos favored Democratic presidential candidates over Republican ones.

Yes, but: Democrats, including President Biden, have slowly been bleeding support among Latino and Black voters.

  • A compilation of New York Times/Siena polls from 2022 and 2023 shows that Biden has lost the support of Black and Hispanic voters across ages, genders, and education levels since 2020.

Between the lines: Latino men surprised pundits by more strongly supporting Donald Trump in 2020 than was expected, based on his 2016 showing.

  • A plurality of Latinos now says "neither" when asked which major political party cares more about them, according to a June Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll.

What they're doing: The Biden campaign is spending money early targeting young Black and Latino voters and sending Vice President Kamala Harris to targeted events.

  • In the last few months, the campaign has launched six different ads aimed at Latinos, showing them on streaming services and YouTube in Spanish, English, and Spanglish.
  • "We know that we can't take young Latino voters for granted. That's why we're investing earlier and more than ever to reach Latino voters, including an unprecedented and historic investment in Hispanic paid media," Kevin Muñoz, national spokesperson for the Biden-Harris campaign, tells Axios.

The other side: Conservative groups say Republicans must change strategies to avoid losing gains made with young Latino voters in the past few election cycles.

Zoom out: An estimated 36.2 million Latinos are eligible to vote nationwide this year, per a Pew Research Center analysis.

  • NALEO Educational Fund projects 17.5 million will cast a ballot in November, including 855,000 in Arizona.

What we're watching: "Our community is poised to play a decisive role in the presidential election and others throughout the nation," NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas said in a news release.

  • "However, our Latino vote projection is just a floor, and robust voter engagement efforts by candidates, political parties and other organizations are needed for the Latino electorate to realize its full political potential in Election 2024 and beyond."
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