Feb 8, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Number of eligible Hispanic voters hits record high

Illustration of a group of raised hands contrasted next to a single large hand voting

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

An estimated 36.2 million U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote this year, a new record for an increasingly crucial demographic in the expected rematch between President Biden and former President Trump.

Why it matters: Latino voters, an increasingly ideologically and racially diverse demographic, have helped swing tight races in battleground states and are expected to play a key role in November.

By the numbers: The number of eligible Latino voters grew by 12% — or nearly 4 million people — since the last presidential election, according to an analysis by the Pew Research Center.

  • Latinos are projected to account for 14.7% of all eligible voters in November.
  • A majority of Latino voters (59%) voted for Biden in 2020 and helped swing key races in states like Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Yes, but: About 31% of Hispanic eligible voters are ages 18 to 29, a demographic pollsters don't have significant data on.

  • In general, young American voters in that age bracket are unhappy with Biden and have said in recent polls they might sit this election out.
  • Plus, Latinos and other people of color are disproportionately affected by voter restrictions such as having proper identification, and they have traditionally had lower rates of turnout

What they're saying: "This reminder that Latinos are a growing bloc of the electorate and have the power to sway election outcomes is real," Tory Gavito, president and CEO of left-leaning Way to Win, tells Axios.

  • Democrats tend to list big macroeconomic wins, and that doesn't work with Latino voters. Democrats need to show instead how they are looking out for their families and interests, she says.

Conservative groups also say Republicans must change strategies to avoid losing gains made with young Latino voters in the past few election cycles.

Between the lines: The Biden campaign is spending money early targeting young Black and Latino voters and sending Vice President Kamala Harris to targeted events.

  • The campaign has launched six different ads aimed at Latinos in the last few months in Spanish, English, and Spanglish, shown on streaming services and YouTube.
  • "We know that we can't take young Latino voters for granted. That's why we're investing earlier and more than ever to reach Latino voters, including an unprecedented and historic investment in Hispanic paid media," Kevin Muñoz, national spokesperson for the Biden-Harris campaign, tells Axios.

The Trump campaign did not respond to Axios.

  • The Republican National Committee also did not respond.

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