Jun 22, 2023 - Politics & Policy

Poll: Latinos' slow drift from Dems

Data: Axios/Ipsos in partnership with Noticias Telemundo; Chart: Axios Visuals

A plurality of Latinos now says "neither" when asked which major political party cares more about them, according to the latest Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.

Why it matters: More Latinos continue to favor the Democratic Party, but their allegiance is drifting. Some Latinos signal growing differences on cultural issues and crime — and give Republicans an edge in handling the economy.

The big picture: That hasn't translated to a major realignment among Latinos to the GOP, Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson tells Axios.

  • 47% overall (44% of the registered voters in the survey) said they had a favorable opinion of President Biden, about the same as last October.
  • 29% of respondents (32% of the registered voters) had a favorable opinion of former President Trump.
  • Just 20% (24% of the registered voters) nationally gave favorable reviews to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), despite his popularity in his home state with the heavily Cuban-American Hispanic population.

Zoom in: Latinos are an increasingly important voting bloc, representing 18.7% of the U.S. population and growing. The poll found that by nearly 3 to 1, Latinos say Democrats care more about them than Republicans, a declining but still dominant share.

  • But 32% of all respondents said neither Democrats nor Republicans care about Latinos. That's up from 28% last October and 25% a year ago.
  • 40% of respondents said it's a bad time to be a Latino or Hispanic person in America, up from 31% last October and 29% a year ago.

State of play: "Latinos are still more Democratic than Republican by significant margins," Jackson said. "But when you're talking about elections that are won by a percentage point, small losses can make a difference.

  • "The Democratic coalition is complicated in the best of times. The more pieces are in play, the harder it's going to be for any Democratic candidate to thread the needle."
  • About half the respondents in the survey said they're registered voters. The registered voters skewed slightly more conservative than the survey's overall sample.

By the numbers: 50% of respondents now say parents should have the ability to stop schools from teaching subjects they do not like, up from 44% in March 2022, the last time the question was asked.

  • Support also has declined since last year for people being able to choose their own gender identity (from 54% to 47%), with an even bigger decline when it comes to teenagers' choices (from 48% to 35%).
  • 14% now say Democrats do a better job on crime and public safety than Republicans, down from 20% last October; 22% of respondents were more likely to say Republicans do a good job, the same as in the prior survey.

The intrigue: A plurality said neither party is good on immigration (34%), crime (30%) or managing the federal budget (38%).

  • One in three said Democrats are better on abortion issues, compared with 17% for Republicans.
  • Democrats were seen as better on climate and energy, while Republicans had an edge on the economy.

What they're saying: "Both parties are really struggling to understand the fastest-growing segment of the electorate," Republican consultant Mike Madrid, based in Sacramento, Calif., tells Axios.

Methodology: This Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll, in partnership with Noticias Telemundo, was conducted June 2-9 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,116 Hispanic/Latino adults age 18 or older.

  • The margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample.

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