Feb 15, 2024 - World

More than 17 million Latinos expected to vote in November

Illustration of binoculars with “I Voted Today” stickers in the lenses.

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

About 17.5 million Latinos are projected to vote in this year's U.S. election, with the biggest increases in turnout expected to take place in some battleground states, according to an analysis by the NALEO Educational Fund.

Why it matters: Latinos are projected to play a critical role in a tight election year, especially in swing states such as Arizona and Nevada.

By the numbers: About 16.5 million Latinos voted in the 2020 presidential election, per NALEO, which analyzed Latino voter trends for the past six presidential election cycles to come up with its 2024 projections.

  • The fund estimates that Nevada will see a nearly 16% increase in Latino voter turnout, from 239,000 voters in 2020 to 276,000 this year.
  • Latino turnout in Florida is expected to see a 14% increase in turnout, from 1.8 million in 2020 to slightly more than 2 million this year.
  • The projected increases are 12% in New York and 5% in Arizona.
  • Overall, an estimated 36.2 million U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote this year, per a Pew Research Center analysis..

What they're saying: "With more than one of every 10 voters in 2024 expected to be Latino, our community is poised to play a decisive role in the presidential election and others throughout the nation," NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas said in a news release.

  • "However, our Latino vote projection is just a floor, and robust voter engagement efforts by candidates, political parties and other organizations are needed for the Latino electorate to realize its full political potential in Election 2024 and beyond."

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