Sep 5, 2023 - Politics & Policy

Polling signals Biden slippage with Black and Hispanic voters

President Biden walks on the south lawn of the White House on Sept. 4 in Washington, D.C. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

President Biden's support among Hispanic and Black voters may be dwindling from 2020, according to analysis by the New York Times, as he faces the prospect of a rematch with former President Trump in 2024.

Why it matters: Biden won the support of more than 70% of Black and Hispanic voters during the 2020 election, but a compilation of polls over the last year show that support deteriorating heading into 2024.

  • If the numbers materialize next November, it would continue the years-long trend of declining support among Black and Hispanic voters in his party, per the Times analysis.

Driving the news: Biden on average leads Trump about 53% to 28% among registered Black and Hispanic voters in a compilation of Times/Siena polls from 2022 and 2023, including more than 1,500 respondents.

  • The compilation of polling shows that Biden's decline includes Black and Hispanic voters across ages, genders and education-levels when compared to 2020.
  • The polling shows that one of Biden's greatest vulnerabilities among this bloc may be those without a college degree. He had a 61-23 lead among Black and Hispanic college graduates, compared to a 49-31 lead among those without a four-year degree, per the Times.

The big picture: Black and Hispanic voters were a key bloc during Biden's 2020 election victory.

  • Exit polls from 2020 show that Biden beat Trump 87%-12% among Black and 65%-32% among Latino voters.
  • Declining support could translate to low turnout among these groups in 2024, the Times writes, which could be detrimental even if it does not lead to turnout for Trump.
  • 5% of these former Biden voters now support Trump, including 8% of Hispanic voters who say they supported Biden in 2020.

Go deeper: The Democratic electorate's seismic shift

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