What the possible loss of Josh Shapiro could mean for Pennsylvania

The big picture: Shapiro — a former attorney general, state lawmaker and Montgomery County commissioner — is a popular governor who's built a reputation as a strong communicator and crisis manager.

• Pundits tell Axios it's those traits that propelled him to the top of Harris' short list of VP candidates.

But if Harris chooses Shapiro as her running mate, and their ticket wins, Pennsylvanians will lose a governor who's been able to reach consensus on some issues in a divided government.

• Shapiro's would-be successor, Austin Davis — the state's first Black lieutenant governor and youngest person to hold that office — is largely untested.

What they're saying: Diane Ellis-Marseglia, a Democratic delegate and chair of the Bucks County Board of Commissioners, tells Axios that Shapiro leaving the Pennsylvania governor's office would be a loss, but that he could still advocate for the state in his role as VP.

• The stakes are too high not to "share him with the rest of the country," Ellis-Marseglia said. "The health and safety and the wellness of this country has to be top priority."

Meanwhile, Shapiro's absence atop state government could create a political vacuum and intensify ongoing power struggles within a divided government, Jeff Jubelirer, a political analyst and vice president of PR firm Bellevue Communications, tells Axios.

• "It could get messy."

Zoom in: Shapiro has made big policy moves, from education to criminal justice, since becoming governor in 2023.

• He helped lobby for a historic $1 billion boost in basic education funding this year following a state court ruling that Pennsylvania unconstitutionally underfunds public school districts.
• He continued a moratorium on capital punishment last year when he announced that he wouldn't sign any execution warrants.
• He's also been outspoken in his defense of reproductive and voting rights and legalizing recreational marijuana.

However, he has drawn pushback for some of his positions, like his support of private school vouchers.

• Shapiro's support for Israel and his stances on the war in Gaza have also attracted criticism. Some Jewish lawmakers said that Shapiro has recently received heightened scrutiny because of his Jewish faith.

Between the lines: State business leaders and Shapiro allies would likely benefit if Shapiro were to end up on a winning ticket, public affairs specialist Larry Ceisler tells Axios.

• "You are going to have Pennsylvanians in business and public policy who will have a direct line to the administration," he says.

Plus: Shapiro could likely bring more of a national spotlight to Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker, a fellow Democrat who has vocally backed the governor's VP bid, Ceisler says.

Reality check: St. Joseph's professor emeritus and political commentator Randall Miller says Shapiro will already crisscross Pennsylvania to help Harris secure the battleground state regardless of whether he's the VP pick.

• And he could lose some of his shine with moderates by being tied to Harris, who's been accused by the GOP as weak on crime.
• "Some people might feel cheated because they elected him," Miller said. "They might even feel betrayed that he's running off so soon, leaving us."

The bottom line: The possibility of Shapiro becoming VP would be historic for the state.

• James Buchanan is the only Pennsylvanian to be elected president. And, in the 19th century, then-Philly Mayor George Mifflin Dallas was the only person from the state to be vice president.