Harris' new map: Sun Belt back in play
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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Vice President Kamala Harris is eyeing a broader path to victory than President Biden's 2024 map, with an army of enthused volunteers and piles of cash.
Why it matters: Harris' entry could put Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina back in play, forcing Trump to spend in states he considered safe.
- A new CBS poll shows Harris and Trump are tied across the collective battleground states, erasing Trump's previous lead over Biden.
- The Harris campaign is counting on a strategy that involves engaging Republicans who have endorsed Harris, growing her coalition with minority, female, and young voters and investing heavily in mobilizing the groundswell of volunteers who have raised their hand.
Zoom in: In the last two weeks, the Harris campaign added 370,000 new volunteers — including 15,500 in Georgia, 21,000 in Arizona, and 10,500 in North Carolina — three states with diverse or changing electorates that have seen the most uptick in enthusiasm.
In Georgia, there are 100,000 votes up for grabs, former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) told Axios in an interview.
- "Kamala Harris puts all of those votes back in play. The number one excuse that I heard [about Biden] was, 'My gosh, he's just so old. I just can't imagine him governing for 4 years.' She takes that risk of physical and mental failure off the table," Duncan said.
- Harris is looking to continue to build her coalition including Black and Asian communities in and outside of metro Atlanta, in addition to reaching out to the numerous Trump-skeptical Republicans and independents in the state.
In Arizona, the campaign has trotted out border mayors who have endorsed Harris. And Republican Mayor John Giles of Mesa has also endorsed her.
- It's perhaps the second state with the most significant surge in momentum for Democrats following the Biden-Harris switch, and it'll be a test for Harris' border messaging offense on the ground.
- "We had a weekend of action this past weekend that was more than double the size of any previous weekend over the course of the campaign," Harris Arizona coordinated campaign manager Sean McEnerney told Axios, adding that Democrats "are really fired up to run through the tape."
In North Carolina, which has voted for a Democratic president just twice in the last fifty years, Harris has an uphill battle.
- But the Harris campaign has forced the Trump campaign to spend on ads in North Carolina for the first time, a sign that they are taking Harris' prospects seriously.
- Democrats are counting on turning out more favorable voters who have more recently moved to the state and highlighting what they see as GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson's extreme record and tying him to Trump.
Between the lines: Pennsylvania is still the most important state where both campaigns are going all-in.
- In Biden's 2020 race, "we campaigned on the theory that you make marginal gains in those places that are still going to be Republican," senior advisor for Pennsylvania Brendan McPhillips told Axios.
- "That general philosophy, still applies right now, even though there's this wave of enthusiasm. We are not just going to rely on turning out our base."
What's next: On Tuesday, Harris will kick off her weeklong swing state tour in Philadelphia with her vice presidential nominee.
- The duo will also hit western Wisconsin; Detroit; Raleigh, North Carolina; Savannah, Georgia; Phoenix and Las Vegas.
The bottom line: Harris will need to contend with the reality that many Americans are frustrated with the economy and the cost of living.
- With unemployment rates rising to the highest level in three years, the Biden-Harris administration can no longer point to job creation as a positive economic indicator.
- Harris over the past two weeks also has not given any interviews or hosted a press conference.
Editor's note: This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Geoff Duncan's name and to reflect that while Mayor John Giles of Mesa did endorse Harris, Mesa is not a border city.
