Trump and Harris go all-in to make Pennsylvania the new Florida
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In 2000 it was Florida, Florida, Florida. In 2024 it's Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.
Why it matters: Both sides are treating Pennsylvania like the Ohio or Floridas of old — states where the winner is also the likely winner of the White House.
- The Trump and Harris 2024 presidential campaigns are set to spend more than double on advertising in Pennsylvania than in any of the other six swing states, according to an Axios analysis of AdImpact data.
- The focus on the state could help persuade Vice President Kamala Harris to pick Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her vice presidential candidate.
- She's expected to announce her running mate in the coming days.
By the numbers: The Harris and Trump forces are set to spend $210.9 million and counting on TV, digital, and radio ads in Pennsylvania in the eight months between the end of the Republican primary and Election Day, according to past spending and future bookings.
- The Harris team — which includes outside Super PACs — is far outspending former President Trump in every swing state except Pennsylvania, where the Harris team is set to spend $109.2 million compared to the Trump team's $101.7 million.
- The Democratic side spent an additional $9 million in Pennsylvania while the Republican primary was ongoing.
Zoom in: Michigan has the second highest amount of total expected spending at $98.6 million — $80.9 million for the Harris side and $17.7 million for Trump.
- After Pennsylvania, Trump's team has invested in Georgia the most so far, with $28.6 million set to be spent.
The bottom line: Both sides could adjust their advertising strategies in the next three months as the campaign has changed with Harris at the top of the ticket instead of President Biden.
- The Trump team saw Pennsylvania as a prime opportunity to break through the "Blue Wall" states in the Midwest — including Michigan and Wisconsin — which Biden was increasingly dependent on for victory as other swing states trended toward Trump.
- This past week, the Trump team for the first time began spending significant money on ads in North Carolina and Nevada, where polls had previously showed comfortable leads.
