Midwest's 2024 moment: It cannot be ignored
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In his vice-presidential pick, former President Trump emphasized the importance of one region this election year: the Midwest.
Why it matters: Over the last two decades, the Midwest has emerged as a key presidential battleground and "the most purple region overall," says Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
- This year is shaping up to be no exception. Look no further than the national party convention locations in Milwaukee and Chicago.
Zoom in: U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Trump's second Midwestern running mate, "will be strongly focused on … the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond," Trump wrote in his announcement. (Many political strategists group western Pennsylvania into the region.)
- In his RNC acceptance speech Wednesday, Vance called out "all the forgotten communities in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio and every corner of our nation."
Flashback: In 2016, the "key votes" for Trump's victory were cast in the region, Michael Barone, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in 2017.
- Of the 100 electoral votes that flipped Republican between 2012 and 2016, 50 were in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa; 20 more were in Pennsylvania, he pointed out.
State of play: The Midwest "may no longer be ignored by political journalists and taken for granted by Democratic strategists," he concluded.
Yes, but: President Biden's 2020 wins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were pivotal reversals, Coleman noted.
- And "if he can't win all those three again, I'd be surprised if he could get a second term." (That applies to another Democratic nominee, too, he added.)
Between the lines: The region is a backdrop for several of today's key political dynamics.
- Michigan and Minnesota, for example, saw some of the most active "uncommitted" primary vote totals to protest Biden's policies in the Israel-Hamas war. Both had electoral projections shift more competitive after Biden's debate performance.
- Gaza protests are expected to loom over the DNC in Chicago.
Meanwhile, Indiana and Missouri's MAGA Republican politics reflect Trump's rise in the GOP — and his influence in pushing them further right.
- Indiana has seen Trump's influence take a strong hold over state party politics. Missouri's GOP has faced intraparty turmoil — but no disagreement over support for Trump, per the Missouri Independent.
Plus: The region illustrates the so-called diploma divide — "one of the biggest divides" in today's electorate, Coleman said.
- Democrats are becoming known as the party of upscale voters more concerned with issues like gun control and abortion rights.
- Meanwhile, concerns about inflation and "traditional kitchen table issues" like grocery bills are benefitting Republicans in places like the Midwest, said Tim Hagle, a political scientist at the University of Iowa.
- Even in the region's Democratic stronghold of Illinois, a divide has deepened between a highly-educated, deep blue greater Chicago and the state's rural downstate counties — which have been trending Republican.
Case in point: Iowa and Ohio are former swing states where Trump managed to appeal to blue-collar and non-college-educated white voters that used to vote reliably blue.
- Doug Sosnik, a former Bill Clinton adviser, wrote the "foundation" for Trump's 2016 win were Midwestern and Rust Belt areas "with a high percentage of non-college voters that had been hit hardest by globalization and the rise of China."
- Indeed, Vance's best-selling "Hillbilly Elegy" features the frustration of working-class America with elites and free trade policies that helped propel him — and Trump — into office.
Finally, you can also see the diploma divide in recent voting data from key swing states Michigan and Wisconsin.
- Michigan's most Democratic presidential county used to be Wayne, home to Detroit, Coleman pointed out. Since 2016 it has been Washtenaw, home to the University of Michigan.
- The most Democratic parts of Wisconsin — between Milwaukee and Madison — have 37-40% college attainment rates, versus the rest of the state's 25%, he added.
The bottom line: Safe to say the Midwest is no longer being ignored by political journalists — nor taken for granted by strategists.
- The Democratic National Convention kicks off in Chicago on August 19.
