Biden's debate performance hits Midwestern states' election forecast
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Sabato's Crystal Ball cited the debate as a reason for the shift. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
A top election forecaster predicts that Minnesota's and Michigan's presidential races will be even more competitive in the wake of President Biden's debate performance.
The big picture: The rating changes are the latest sign that questions about Biden's age and fitness for office could put more states in play this November if he remains the nominee.
Driving the news: On Wednesday, Sabato's Crystal Ball updated its outlook for Minnesota and its 10 electoral college votes from "Likely Democratic" to "Leans Democratic."
- Michigan, also part of the "blue wall" of must-win states for Democrats across the Upper Midwest, went from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss-up."
What they're saying: "President Biden's debate performance was so bad that it has forced us to reassess some of our assumptions about the race," Sabato's Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik wrote.
- "With Michigan as a Toss-up, it also makes sense to downgrade Minnesota," he added, noting that Trump almost won Minnesota in 2016.
State of play: Even before the debate, several public polls in the state were showing a close rematch.
- Trump's campaign has signaled it will again target Minnesota as part of a strategy to also target states that Biden won by comfortable margins in 2020.
Flashback: The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Minnesota was 1972.
The other side: Minnesota DFL Party chair Ken Martin dismissed the idea that Trump will end that streak, arguing that the state's voters will agree that the former GOP president's "reckless policies and dangerous rhetoric threaten the progress we've made here."
- "Donald Trump has lost Minnesota twice and, the third time won't be the charm," he said in a statement provided to Axios.
The bottom line: With Wisconsin already in the "toss up" category, all three Upper Midwestern states could be in play.
- "We still believe that Biden needs to carry all of the Blue Wall trio, and he's really no better than 50-50 in each of them at the moment," Kondik wrote.
Go deeper: Behind the Curtain: Democratic rage at Biden rises
Editor's note: This story has been updated with a statement from the DFL Party chair.
