By the numbers: Former President Donald Trump in Minnesota

Former President Donald Trump is set to make a “very big" announcement during a rally at Mar-A-Lago later today. Many expect it to be a 2024 White House bid.

The big picture: Trump has only won one race in Minnesota — he ran unopposed in the 2020 GOP presidential primary — but his 2016 performance was the closest a Republican had come to flipping the state in decades.

• Trump set his sights on winning the state in 2020. But increased spending and several visits in the final weeks of the campaign weren't enough, as President Joe Biden carried the state by a comfortable margin.

Zoom in: Here's a look at how Trump fared in contested Minnesota elections.

• 2016 caucus: Placed third, behind U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, with 21% of the vote.
• 2016 general election: Lost to Hillary Clinton by about 45,000 votes, a margin of 1.5 percentage points.
• 2020 general election: Lost to President Biden by seven percentage points, 52% to 45%.

The intrigue: Trump enjoyed broad backing from top Minnesota Republicans in 2020, but GOP leaders and candidates kept their distance during the midterms, even as he delivered surprise endorsements late in the campaign.

What to watch: Trump said at a 2020 rally in Duluth that if he lost Minnesota he's "never coming back."

• Another White House bid could change that, especially if Minnesota becomes an early primary state.