Harris' big test: reclaiming swing states for Dems

• The Californian likely will need to win all three without "Scranton Joe" — the monicker Biden used to remind Pennsylvania voters of his working-class roots when he won the presidency in 2020.

Early national polls suggest Harris' entry has given Democrats a bump in a tight race, but the presidential election is a state-by-state contest.

• Harris appears to be energizing many young and minority voters. A big question is whether she also can maintain Biden's recent success among older voters — and stem Democrats' losses among groups such as Latino men and whites who didn't go to college.
• In a strategy memo released early Wednesday, Harris' campaign argues she can. She aims to do so partly by focusing on women's reproductive rights and contrasting Trump's legal problems with her history as a prosecutor.
• Biden's victory over Trump in 2020 was aided by his gains among whites who didn't attend college, a group that helped Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center.

Driving the news: Larry Ceisler, a Pennsylvania-based public affairs executive, said he doesn't expect Harris to match Biden's numbers in rural parts of the state.

• But, he said, Harris "is going to boost turnout and support from African American voters, diverse voters and younger voters."
• "It could be a net positive for the ticket," Ceisler said.
• Another thing that might help in must-win Pennsylvania: Harris is considering Josh Shapiro, the state's popular Democratic governor, as her running mate. Putting him on the ticket could alter the calculus there.

What they're saying: In its memo, Harris' campaign argues that she's positioned to expand Biden's winning coalition from 2020.

• "Her net favorability is 19 points higher than Trump's among white, college-educated voters, and 18 points higher than Trump's among voters over 65," the Harris campaign writes.
• It also claims that the roughly 7% of voters who remain undecided are "disproportionately Black, Latino and under 30" — voting populations more likely to favor Harris.

By the numbers: Few polls have been released since Biden left the race Sunday and Harris jumped in.

• Reuters released a national poll Tuesday showing Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump, (44%-42%).
• The same poll the previous week had Trump with a 2-point lead, suggesting that the Democrats' candidate switch led Trump to lose ground instead of picking up a post-convention bump.
• A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll indicates that Harris' entry reset the race, which the poll says is statistically tied.

Swing-state polls are done less frequently, and don't yet reflect the historic twists and turns of the past two weeks. The latest batch showed Trump ahead in most of the six states likely to decide the election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

• In a New York Times/Siena College poll — taken before Biden dropped out and the assassination attempt against Trump — Harris fared better than Biden, and was essentially tied with Trump in Pennsylvania.

• Harris also polled stronger than Biden with Black voters and younger voters.
• In Michigan, Real Clear Politics found that Trump led by about 2 points from an average of Trump-Harris polls.

State of play: Trump's team is zeroing in on the three "Blue Wall" states, with a particular eye on Pennsylvania.

• His running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, plans to campaign frequently in Pennsylvania in the next few months, hoping to use his background as a Rust Belt native to woo working-class voters.

Zoom in: Harris could try to neutralize Vance with her own VP selection.

• Besides Shapiro, Democratic Govs. Roy Cooper (North Carolina) and Andy Beshear (Kentucky) are VP contenders with broad appeal among moderate Democrats.
• Harris "and whoever her running mate is are going to have to work Pennsylvania very hard," Ceisler said.
• "She's going to have to introduce herself to the electorate — and she can't let herself be painted as some far-left 'woke' activist from San Francisco, because she's not."

What to watch: The "Blue Wall" states aren't the only places where Harris' emerging coalition will be tested.

• Democratic strategist Tony Cani, the Biden campaign's Arizona deputy director in 2020, said recent Democratic victories relied on high turnout among young voters and people of color.
• He's hoping Harris will re-engage those voters who were on the fence about Biden, who trailed Trump by several points in Arizona polls.

The bottom line: Tharon Johnson, a Georgia-based Democratic strategist, said the 2020 Biden-Harris campaign was successful because of its broad coalition of voters.

• "She's got to extend that hand to that working-class ... moderate [and] independent voters that I think are actually up for grabs," Johnson said.

Go deeper: Who could be Kamala Harris' vice presidential pick

Axios' Kristal Dixon and Jessica Boehm contributed reporting.