Axios

Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to form Wednesday and make landfall later that night near the Texas-Louisiana state line, the National Hurricane Center said in its Tuesday forecast.

Why it matters: Arthur will be the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

With large-scale oil shipments potentially resuming soon, let's take stock of how the energy shock has bucked conventional wisdom.

Why it matters: What market watchers and participants got wrong could help inform responses to geopolitical upheaval in the future.

The U.S. oil stockpile is at its lowest level since July 1983, when the country was still just building up its energy supply.

Why it matters: The stockpile, called the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, played a critical role in keeping a lid on oil and gasoline prices in the Iran war, but it's running low.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe told President Trump and other senior officials that evidence gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies raises serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. is seeking in any final deal, according to three sources familiar with those discussions.

Friction point: Ratcliffe isn't the only skeptic in Trump's top team. In internal discussions, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth both expressed concerns and raised questions about the memorandum of understanding (MOU) announced Sunday, while Vice President Vance and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner advocated for it, according to two of the sources.

A tropical storm could form in the Gulf this week, marking the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Why it matters: The system could bring up to 10 inches of rain to Southeast Louisiana, regardless of further development, the National Weather Service warns.