Tropical storm could form in Gulf, drench Louisiana

The big picture: The low-pressure system could develop into a "short-lived" tropical storm Wednesday into Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said Monday afternoon.

• If so, it will be named Arthur.
• Residents in New Orleans metro should prepare for periods of intense rain over the next several days, says Mike Buchanan, the meteorologist in charge of the NWS office in Slidell.
• Flash flooding is likely.
• Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible in Texas and southwest Louisiana. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required there Tuesday, NHC says.

What he's saying: "It's not going to blast on through" New Orleans, Buchanan tells Axios.

• There's a "very moist" air mass that's stalled over the region, so residents should expect a very wet and stormy week, he says.

Threat level: South Louisiana is under a flood watch through 7am Friday.

• Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected through Friday morning, with "considerably higher" amounts in isolated areas, NWS says.
• Rainfall rates could exceed 3 to 4 inches per hour.
• Pumps in Orleans and Jefferson parishes generally can handle 1 inch of rain in the first hour and then a half-inch per hour after that.

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