Axios

The U.S. and China held deputy-level trade talks in Beijing earlier this week. The discussions lasted one day longer than planned and both sides issued vague but mildly positive official statements about the discussions.

My thought bubble: The Chinese do need to make a deal, both because the trade conflict is exacerbating underlying problems in their economy and also because I hear Xi is quite concerned about the possibility of U.S. decoupling from China, especially in technology.

The market is showing a roughly 50% chance of a recession over the next year, according to Goldman Sachs' economic research team.

Why it matters: They watch two market measures — the slope of the yield curve and credit spreads. Both "now indicate sharply higher recession risk than a few months ago," the team noted. But the researchers added they are not sold on a recession. "In our view recession risk remains fairly low, in the neighborhood of 15% over the next year." Goldman analysts predicted the S&P 500 would finish the year at 3000 in its 2019 outlook — 500 points above where it finished 2018.

Over-the-top digital streaming TV companies that don't charge people for access are rising as consumers face saturated budgets for subscription content.

Why it matters: While data shows consumers today are generally less tolerant of ads, the rise of these services shows that there's still an appetite for advertising if it's relevant — and if it means consumers can access their favorite content without having to pay a subscription fee.

Columbia sportswear is wading into politics with this full-page ad in The Washington Post.

Columbia president and CEO Tim Boyle, who has been with the company since 1971, told me in an exclusive interview from HQ in Portland, Oregon, that "We rely on the beauty of America, the West, the outdoors to market our products. ... When that’s under stress, we feel like we have to challenge that.”

• "This is a time when the country is incredibly vulnerable. If you were an enemy of the United States, this is a time you’d want to attack us."
• "No party hates the outdoors except maybe the Donner Party."

Fox Business host Lou Dobbs said Thursday that President Trump should use his national emergency powers to "simply sweep aside the recalcitrant left in this country” as the partial government moves closer to Day 21.

Why it matters: In addition to being one of Trump's favorite cable news hosts, Lou Dobbs is also a close confidante of the president. The Daily Beast reported last year that Trump has, on several occasions, patched Dobbs into Oval Office meetings so the Fox Business host could "give his two cents" via speakerphone. Later Thursday night, Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity that he would "most likely" declare a national emergency if he couldn't strike a deal with Congress on his border wall.

Go deeper: Shutdown continues with no end in sight

BlackRock is laying off 500 employees around the world, or about 3% of its workforce, as the world's largest asset manager grapples with "market uncertainty" and evolving "investor preferences," according to an internal memo obtained by Axios. It's unclear in which units within BlackRock the job cuts will occur.

The big picture: BlackRock and other asset managers had a tough 2018 with market volatility and pressure from lower-fee options across the industry, with shares of BlackRock falling more than 20% last year. In the memo, BlackRock President Rob Kapito said the cuts will allow the firm to continue to reinvest in high-growth markets and technology.

President Trump told reporters outside the White House on Thursday that he finds China, a key adversary in his ongoing trade war, "in many ways to be far more honorable" than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. He added, "I think that China is actually much easier to deal with than the opposition party."

The big picture: Trump has been trying to get Pelosi and Schumer to agree to his demands for $5.7 billion to fund a border wall, but he called their latest meeting on Wednesday "a total waste of time." Meanwhile, he's spoken positively of trade talks with China, tweeting earlier this month that the U.S. is "doing well" in various trade negotiations, despite the fact that both countries just held their first talks this week since agreeing to a 90-day trade war ceasefire in December.

Go deeper: Trump is wrong on how China tariffs work

Shares of Constellation Brands, which took a major stake in marijuana producer Canopy Growth last year, fell to a two-year low after the company cut its 2019 profit forecast.

Why it matters: Constellation put the blame on weakness in its booze business, but also cited higher interest payments for its now $4 billion stake in Canopy Growth. Canopy lost $164 million in value during the fourth quarter, Reuters reports.

Sears chairman Eddie Lampert has upped his bid for some of the failed company's stores to $5 billion, hoping to shield it from liquidation, Reuters reports.

The state of play: The offer is 13% higher than Lampert's previous bid, which was rejected earlier this week.