1 big thing: Still no U.S.-China trade deal

Animation of a Chinese finger trap being pulled back and forth by hands representing the United States and China

2. U.S. wants to unwind two Chinese deals

3. Orwell in Xinjiang 

4. The next round of Europe-China talks 

5. China's building binge alarms U.S.

6. The Qingming festival and tribute to martyrs

7. 1 fun thing - “Uncle Petrov”

8. Worthy of your time

Happy Qingming Festival! I am glad to be back in your inboxes.

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China

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Analysis and intel from Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, authority on Beijing intrigue and intentions.

Axios China

1 big thing: U.S.-China trade deal won't happen this month

2. "Two Meetings" conclude without surprises

3. Parched Beijing

4. Dueling human rights reports

5. China's global approval rating has surpassed the U.S.

6. 1 big read: Chinese trolls on Reddit

7. Worthy of your time

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1 big thing: The trade war isn't breaking China's economy

An economic graph with the head of a Chinese dragon

2. The anniversary of Hu Yaobang's death

3. How China is shaking up the global financial order

A panda chewing on a bamboo stick with money symbols at the end

4. There's still no American solution for 5G

Illustration of a group of smartphones looking like a city

5. 1 big read: 2019 China Story Yearbook

6. China bits from Uber's IPO filing

Illustration of an Uber route in the shape of an upward market trend line

Happy Friday! Don't miss the new Axios Space. Sign up here.

Situational awareness: A Trump inaugural ball with links to China and dubious donors saw thousands of dollars in donations flow to an undisclosed bank account, the Palm Beach Post reports.

Programming note: We'll be off next Friday, returning April 26.

1 big thing: Rethinking the market in the trade war's next phase

Illustration of a Tetris interface with red and blue shipping containers as the blocks.

2. Nationalism and the trade war

3. A new type of Cold War

4. FBI opens investigation into Trump donor Cindy Yang

5. DOJ charges Chinese citizen with historic Anthem breach

6. Podcast: Silence for the Uighurs

7. Nepal has a front-row seat to the great power competition in Asia

Situational awareness: The U.S.-China talks Friday did not reach a deal, so tariffs increased at 12:01am this morning. The Chinese have promised "countermeasures" but have not yet announced anything specific.  

Some personal news: This is my last issue of Axios China. Thanks for reading the last 18 months. I look forward to continuing to contribute to Axios coverage of China, and you can catch my regular writing on China by signing up for Sinocism here. For more Axios coverage of international issues you can sign up for Axios World here. 

Thanks for reading, and make sure you are reading all of Axios' excellent newsletters. 

1 big thing: Harnessing the May 4th anniversary

An audience watches a film about the May 4 movement

2. The latest on the U.S.-China trade talks

3. The Pentagon's "China Military Power" report

4. Silicon Valley's "sudden paranoia"

5. The curious case of Bloomberg's Huawei scoop

6. Xinjiang's mass surveillance app

Happy Friday! China has been on holiday since Wednesday in celebration of International Worker's Day. Everyone will be back to work by Monday.

National

The breakdown in trade negotiations came during a week that saw the 100th anniversary of the May 4th Movement and the 20th anniversary of the U.S. bombing of the PRC embassy in Belgrade, an incident that set off a wave of protests in China against the U.S.

Why it matters: The trade war is just one component of a rapidly deteriorating U.S.-China relationship. Even if there is a deal, the deeper tensions will only intensify, and the risk of a surge in anti-American sentiment is real.

The impact: One result of the trade war, even if there is a deal in the near-term, will likely be the attempts to increasingly harness nationalism and anti-American sentiment. There have been some glimmers in the last few days.

"Taoran Notes 陶然笔记," a WeChat account connected to the official Economic Daily newspaper, wrote Wednesday that China is willing to talk if the U.S. is, and is also willing to fight a trade war if that is what the U.S. wants.

That post went on to say that in 2 of the nearly 3 years of the "War to Resist U.S. aggression and aid Korea" (China's name for the Korean War) the U.S. and Chinese sides were both talking and fighting.

Several well-known hawks have been quite vocal in their desire to see the trade talks fail (Financial Times):

"I very much hope that the negotiations will break down," said Dai Xu, a professor at China's National Defence University and a retired air force colonel."

"Once the negotiations are over, the United States will be finished, for sure ... we kick out all the American companies and bring all of ours back.... No way will Trump be re-elected."

"The US openly sees us as their biggest enemy," said Tan Yungang, an air force colonel. "The United States will block China more than they did the former Soviet Union."

"Chinese people need to have backbone," said Prof Dai. "I am very opposed to one of our traditional concepts, which is that no matter how much others have hurt China, we are educated to forget ... what's the meaning of remembering the history without the hatred? It's meaningless."

US tariffs threat strikes raw nerve on 20th anniversary of Nato bombing of Chinese embassy in Serbia – South China Morning Post

China Memories of 1895 Shame Loom Over Envoy's High-Stakes Talks - Bloomberg

The new book China's New Red Guards: The Return of Radicalism and the Rebirth of Mao Zedong

U.S.-China trade war could be signaling a deeper problem

There is a risk of a surge in anti-American sentiment is real.

Photo: Matt Anderson Photography/Getty Images

Politics

Trump trade war

World

Trade war

The breakdown in trade negotiations came during a week that saw the 100th anniversary of the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="May 4th Movement" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/harnessing-may-4th-anniversary-71e4400a-19d9-4bd6-867c-e628f8a60a8d.html" data-vars-content-id="055b9816-1def-47ad-8fe3-833ebcaf241f" data-vars-headline="U.S.-China trade war could be signaling a deeper problem" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/harnessing-may-4th-anniversary-71e4400a-19d9-4bd6-867c-e628f8a60a8d.html" target="_self">May 4th Movement</a> and the 20th anniversary of the U.S. bombing of the PRC embassy in Belgrade, an incident that set off a wave of protests in China against the U.S.Why it matters: The trade war is just one component of a rapidly deteriorating U.S.-China relationship. Even if there is a deal, the deeper tensions will only intensify, and the risk of a surge in anti-American sentiment is real.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

The People's Bank of China released the monthly credit data for March earlier today, and it appears that policymakers are adding credit growth to all the other stimulative measures like tax cuts, infrastructure spending and preferential policies to keep the economy stable.

Why it matters: China's policymakers have spent the last several months working hard to mitigate the effects of the trade war with the U.S., and so far it looks like their efforts may be working, at least in the short term.

Aggregate financing was 2.86 trillion yuan ($426 billion) last month, compared with about 700 billion yuan in February, the People’s Bank of China said Friday. The median estimate was 1.85 trillion yuan in a Bloomberg survey.

The March trade data was a mixed bag, with exports growing at their fastest pace in in five months while imports fell (Caixin):

Exports of goods rose 14.2% year-on-year to $198.7 billion in March, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs. That compared with a 20.7% decline in February and was ahead of the median forecast of a 6.5% increase in a Bloomberg survey of economists.Meanwhile, imports fell 7.6% year-on-year to $166 billion in March after a 5.2% slide in February. Imports missed the Bloomberg median forecast of a 0.2% increase. The trade surplus rose to $32.7 billion from February’s $4.1 billion

The trade war isn't breaking China's economy

The People&#x27;s Bank of China released the monthly credit data for March earlier today, and it appears that policymakers are adding credit growth to all the other stimulative measures like tax cuts, infrastructure spending and preferential policies to keep the economy stable.Why it matters: China&#x27;s policymakers have spent the last several months working hard to mitigate the effects of the trade war with the U.S., and so far it looks like their efforts may be working, at least in the short term.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Russian trolls have lurked around Reddit for years, and it seems that China is getting involved, too.

Threat level: Craig Silverman of Buzzfeed examines the rise of pro-China activity on Reddit in Reddit Has Become A Battleground Of Alleged Chinese Trolls:

The sources say they've seen an increase in posts from newly created accounts that downvote anything critical of China, swarm threads to push pro–Communist Party views, or attack anyone criticizing the country...

While a BuzzFeed News analysis indicates that some of these accounts appear to belong to Chinese citizens based overseas acting in support of their country, there are also indicators that something more coordinated could be taking place...

One source familiar with the moderation practices of the /r/geopolitics subreddit, which they say generates roughly 1 million visits a month, called the influx of pro-China accounts and activity "the most active and aggressive" effort they've witnessed to date.

In the past, /r/geopolitics had been targeted by Russian trolls, who are generally the most well-known and active across various social media platforms. However, in our situation the pro-CCP effort vastly overshadows any operation by the Russians.

My thought bubble: This activity on Reddit aligns with a multi-year Chinese effort to gain greater global "discourse power" to shape the global discussion about China.

Chinese trolls on Reddit

The rise of pro-China activity on the online platform.

Photo: Miguel Candela/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Reddit

Technology

Russian trolls have lurked around Reddit for years, and it seems that China is getting involved, too.Threat level: Craig Silverman of Buzzfeed examines the rise of pro-China activity on Reddit in <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Reddit Has Become A Battleground Of Alleged Chinese Trolls" data-vars-click-url="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/craigsilverman/reddit-coordinated-chinese-propaganda-trolls" data-vars-content-id="5023063c-d0b3-4dec-bc90-a0e5780f54aa" data-vars-headline="Chinese trolls on Reddit" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/craigsilverman/reddit-coordinated-chinese-propaganda-trolls" target="_blank">Reddit Has Become A Battleground Of Alleged Chinese Trolls</a>:

Tomorrow is the 100th anniversary of the May 4th Movement, which sparked the rise of many radical Chinese political and social leaders, and is one of the sensitive events this year that has the PRC government locking things down even more tightly than normal.

Why it matters: At the same time, the Party, which controls the official history of the movement, is again trying to harness the legacy of May 4 for its own goals.

What they're saying: On Tuesday, the Party convened a gathering at the anniversary at which Xi Jinping urged patriotism among youth, striving for brighter China (Xinhua):

"The essence of patriotism is having unified love for the country, the Party and socialism, Xi added, urging young Chinese to follow the instructions and guidance of the Party, and remain dedicated to the country and the people.Young people are also urged to establish belief in Marxism, faith in socialism with Chinese characteristics, as well as confidence in the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation ... In the new era, the theme and direction of Chinese youth movement and the mission of Chinese young people, Xi said, are to uphold the leadership of the CPC, and work along with the people to realize the two centenary goals and the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation."

My thought bubble: Be wary of underestimating how many believe in the patriotic and increasingly jingoistic propaganda and Xi's repeated claims that China is closer than it has ever been to national rejuvenation, or of how many sycophants and opportunists there are in a country as large as China which see safety and opportunity in embracing the Party line. 

There is also no question that China is closer to national rejuvenation than it has been at any time since the Opium Wars. Omnipresent propaganda based in kernels of truth married to efficient and ruthless security services can be very effective.

Xi Praises a Student Protest in China. From 100 Years Ago. - The New York Times 

Why Does a Student Protest Held a Century Ago Still Matter in China? - The New York Times

Harnessing the May 4th anniversary

And the government is locking things down more than ever.

 An audience watches a short film about the May 4th Movement at The Great Hall Of The People on April 30 in Beijing.

An audience watches a short film about the May 4th Movement at The Great Hall Of The People on April 30 in Beijing. Photo: Andrea Verdelli/Getty Images

Tomorrow is the 100th anniversary of the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="May 4th Movement" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/16781623.63864/aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvTWF5X0ZvdXJ0aF9Nb3ZlbWVudD91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc2NoaW5hJnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5c90f2c505e94e65b176e000Bc34804f4" data-vars-content-id="71e4400a-19d9-4bd6-867c-e628f8a60a8d" data-vars-headline="Harnessing the May 4th anniversary" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/16781623.63864/aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvTWF5X0ZvdXJ0aF9Nb3ZlbWVudD91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc2NoaW5hJnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5c90f2c505e94e65b176e000Bc34804f4" target="_blank">May 4th Movement</a>, which sparked the rise of many radical Chinese political and social leaders, and is one of the sensitive events this year that has the PRC government locking things down even more tightly than normal.Why it matters: At the same time, the Party, which controls the official history of the movement, is again trying to harness the legacy of May 4 for its own goals.

Every year, the U.S. and China release reports on the human rights situations in each other's country.

What's happening: Per Xinhua, some of the highlighted issues in China's report include: The severe infringement on citizens' civil rights; the prevalence of money politics, the rising income inequality; worsening racial discrimination, and growing threats against children, women and immigrants; human rights violations caused by the unilateral America First policies and gun violence.

[T]he environment for the press in the United States has further deteriorated ... the U.S. government has often publicly and vehemently accused the media and journalists of making "fake news", creating an intimidating and hostile environment.

Some of the highlighted issues in the U.S. State Department's report on China include:

A significant intensification of the campaign of mass detention of members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang.

Arbitrary or unlawful killings by the government.

Physical attacks on and criminal prosecution of journalists, lawyers, writers, bloggers, dissidents, petitioners, and others as well as their family members;

Severe restrictions of religious freedom.

Why it matters: Pointing out America's shortcomings while denying its own serves China's broader strategy of slowly chipping away at America's credibility globally.

1.5 million Muslims could be detained in China's Xinjiang: academic(Reuters)

U.S. Steps Up Criticism of China for Detentions in Xinjiang (The New York Times)

China's assault on human rights is the one thing bringing Washington together (The Washington Post)

Dueling human rights reports

Pointing out America's shortcomings while denying its own serves China's broader strategy.

Every year, the U.S. and China release reports on the human rights situations in each other&#x27;s country.What&#x27;s happening: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Per Xinhua" data-vars-click-url="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-03/14/c_137894687.htm" data-vars-content-id="d8aa7f2a-8609-4585-801e-3d43963d12cd" data-vars-headline="Dueling human rights reports" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-03/14/c_137894687.htm" target="_blank">Per Xinhua</a>, some of the highlighted issues in China&#x27;s report include: The severe infringement on citizens&#x27; civil rights; the prevalence of money politics, the rising income inequality; worsening racial discrimination, and growing threats against children, women and immigrants; human rights violations caused by the unilateral America First policies and gun violence.

Bill Bishop of Sinocism

Stories

U.S.-China trade war could be signaling a deeper problem

Harnessing the May 4th anniversary

The trade war isn't breaking China's economy

Chinese trolls on Reddit

Dueling human rights reports

Newsletter editions

Axios China: The trade war's next phase — DOJ charges Chinese citizen — Silence for the Uighurs

Axios China: May 4th anniversary — Trade talks — China military power

Axios China: Trade war economics — Hu Yaobang — The new financial order

Axios China: Still no U.S.-China trade deal — Unwinding two Chinese deals — Orwell in Xinjiang

Axios China: No trade deal in March — Dueling human rights reports — Trolls on Reddit